Tommy Mo recaps the 2021 NFL Draft and discusses fantasy relevant players with Mike Tagliere & Thor Nystrom.
Zach Wilson | Injury Profile
As everyone knows, former BYU quarterback Zach Wilson has the arm strength to make any throw. However, some are concerned about Wilson’s injury history, especially his shoulder surgery on his throwing arm in 2018. Looking back at his college days, I didn’t see anything that required any concern. I explain why below.
Injury History
- Torn labrum in right shoulder (throwing arm) in 2018. Wilson missed four games and required surgery after the season.
- Broken thumb in right hand. Wilson missed four games again.
2019 Injury
Starting with the thumb fracture in 2019, there isn’t too much to say. The injury was a fluke. Wilson broke his thumb late in the game against Toledo while throwing an interception. There wasn’t a clear indication of injury on the throw, but I speculate it happened when he tried to run down the DB.
2018 Injury
There’s no specific timeline for when Wilson injured his right shoulder. He had surgery to repair his labrum in his throwing shoulder in 2018, which effectively ended his season, but per a 2019 interview, Wilson said he sustained the injury in high school.
In that same interview, Wilson was quoted on how he hurt his shoulder: “…he doesn’t think it was him throwing a football that made the injury worse but rather landing on the injured shoulder.”
The mechanism of injury described in the interview is a very common type of injury typically referred to as a FOOSH – Falling Onto an Outstretched Hand. Nearly the majority of compression type labral injuries occur from a FOOSH.
If there were any concerns that Wilson would have lingering effects post shoulder surgery, he put those worries to bed in 2020. He was top three in yards per completion, and BYU ranked second in yards per play (mostly because of Wilson).
Oh yeah and then there are plays like this:
Looking Ahead
The only marginal concern I have is with Wilson’s playing style. In a recent discussion I had with @DrRisher, we discussed QB prospects and he informed me scouts aren’t just concerned about a QB’s ability to run, but their ability to extend plays…something Zach does well.
It’s plays like this one where Wilson extends the play by rolling out of the pocket and throwing on the run. Throwing on the run and fading away, if a defender hits and drives Wilson to the ground, that’s a risk for FOOSH.
What The Research Shows
Research on prevalence of labral tears in college football showed that QBs ranked eighth out of 10 as the least likely to sustain that injury (12%). Of the QBs studied, half had a previous labral injury, suggesting a 50% re-injury rate (not statically significant).
Summary
Zach Wilson’s thumb injury was a fluke play. It likely happened when he was trying to tackle a defender after an interception.
Wilson’s previous right shoulder injury combined with his playing style probably leave him at a higher risk of these re-injury compared to someone with the same injury history.
With all of that in mind, the risk isn’t enough to avoid him at any rookie drafts. My findings while reviewing his profile did not yield anything I would classify as a red flag.
If you wish to see the link to the original Twitter Thread, click HERE.
For a more in-depth fantasy football driven breakdown of Zach Wilson or any other rookie prospects, make sure you check out The Undroppables Rookie Draft Guide.
Tylan Wallace | Injury Profile
With Tylan Wallace slipping all the way to day-3 in the NFL draft (pick 131), there is concern over Tylan’s injury history. In a Twitter thread I made back in March I outlined some concerns I had regarding Wallace. It would appear that for most NFL teams they had some of the same fears.
Injury History:
- 2019 Non-contact ACL Tear – Right knee
- Returned the following season (roughly 11 months after surgery)
- Twin Brother Tracin Wallace tore his left ACL 3 times
Brotherly Love
What most people want to know is whether or not Tylan Wallace is (1) at a higher risk for injury in the future because his brother had multiple ACL tears and (2) because he has already suffered an ACL tear. The answer to the first question is sort of.
There is research that shows a genetic predisposition to ACL tears. A systematic review from 2016 highlighted 16 separate studies that found a link between genetics and ACL tears.
There is also research suggesting that identical twins do have a higher risk for the same types of injuries – in this case, ACL tears.
Interesting question. Do identical twins have an increased risk for the same/similar injuries (in this case ACL)? I wanted to do some research on it and put the findings in a thread.
So down the rabbit hole I go…. https://t.co/Ffk1426OJH
— Ethan Turner (@ETurnerFF_PT) February 2, 2021
Future Risk
The best predictor for future injuries is past injuries. Studies show that chances of sustaining another ACL injury in a two-year window increases 4x if you have already suffered a previous ACL tear.
Knee Valgus
Because Tylan had a non-contact ACL tear I wanted to examine his average valgus angle, pre/post injury:
- Pre-injury: 176*
- Post-injury: 175*
There was no real difference. If you’re curious on how I examine knee valgus you can check out an old article of mine: Association Between Knee Angle and ACL Tears.
Acceleration vs. Deceleration
When a player comes back from an ACL injury I’m more concerned about their “Deceleration” as opposed to their “Acceleration.”
Deceleration is an important tool in Wallace’s route tree. 2018 pre-injury: Tylan’s ability to quickly decelerate is what sells this route.
Another Example of Tylan Wallace pre-injury, stopping on a dime.
When I watched Wallace post-injury I saw the same deceleration
With that said there were some select plays I found where Wallace was a little clumsy trying to slow down and cut back. It could be a coincidence or just an off play. But I found them interesting so I wanted to include them.
Here is another example of Wallace struggling to stop and come back on a route during the Senior bowl. He takes choppy steps. As a result, Wallace cannot turn quickly to shake the defender. Credit to @FF_Astronauts film room for the footage.
Summary
Although the research is low-level evidence (cohort/case studies), there is data that suggests a connection between ACL injuries and genetics – so it’s difficult to quantify but it should be noted that Tylan Wallace’s brother had 3 ACL tears.
For non-contact ACL tears, several biomechanical factors can predispose someone to this injury (why his brother having 3 ACL injuries is noteworthy) Data indicates he is at a higher risk for another ACL tear in the next 1-2 years.
Post-injury Tylan’s knee angle looked similar suggesting good knee stabile and return to form. I did notice some issues decelerating but that could be merely anecdotal.
If you wish to see the link to the original Twitter Thread click HERE.
For a more in-depth fantasy football-driven breakdown of Tylan Wallace or any other rookie prospects, make sure you check out The Undroppables 2021 Rookie Draft Guide.
The Undrafted | Late Round James Robinson
This week on “The Undrafted”, a fantasy football podcast focusing on dynasty game theory, Scott (@DynoGameTheory) has JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) on as a guest. JJ and Scott review the draft and talk about some of their favorite and least favorite landing spots for the 2021 Rookie Class. Tune in or be tuned out.
Mile High Remake
How do you restore the glory to a once proud NFL franchise? Especially one that has struggled to find its identity since its equally proud President of Football Operations, John Elway, called it a career way back in 1997?
If you’re newly minted General Manager George Paton, you do it by scouring the NCAA for talent. Paton got his start in the Chicago Bears scouting department and before the decade was out had worked his way to the Vikings assistant GM position. A stop in Miami uncovered guys like Randy McMichael and Vernon Carey. The Leroy Guitons and Percy Harvins would follow in Minnesota. Paton has had a hand in building playoff teams for each of the organizations for which he’s worked, and now he’s turned his attention towards ending the Broncos’ current five-year playoff drought.
After a decade of making all the relevant decisions regarding personnel, John Elway and team brass decided it was time to place a new set of eyes on the ultimate prize. Paton was hired on January 12 of this year, given complete autonomy, and he went straight to work. His first order of business was to franchise tag Justin Simmons before making him the highest paid safety in the league. Simmons is a high character guy who’s great in the locker room and active in the community. The type of guy you want to build around.
Then he allowed the contract of safety Kareem Jackson to expire. Despite the veteran enjoying his best season in Denver. Jackson subsequently tested free agency and elected to return at a more team-friendly number. But it was the acquisition of Kyle Fuller that turned heads. This is an extremely low risk, high reward deal for the Broncos. Fuller just turned 29 and has never missed a game in his pro career. He also enjoyed his greatest success under current Broncos head coach Vic Fangio. The two will look to rekindle their magic in the Mile High city.
Paton wasn’t done throwing money at the defensive backfield. In order for the Broncos to get where they want to go, they must deal with that Big Red Machine in Kansas City. So they gave Ronald Darby $30 million and need him to show that his durability concerns are a thing of the past.
The new GM wrapped free agency by picking up the option on Von Miller and letting fan favorite Phillip Lindsay walk. They also lost Jeremiah Attaochu and Elijah Wilkinson – both to the Chicago Bears.
With the draft on the horizon, Paton reached to his past to shore up the Broncos future. The assistant general manager in Minnesota when the Vikings made Teddy Bridgewater a first round pick, Paton plucked the QB from the Carolina Panthers just one year after signing him to a 3-year $63 million dollar contract.
This move effectively ended the quarterback pursuit for the Broncos in 2021. It provided competition for incumbent Drew Lock while also giving their young signal-caller another opportunity for the light to come on. So it was no surprise when the Broncos passed on Ohio State’s Justin Fields to select Patrick Surtain II from Alabama. This was clearly a selection with the division in mind. Welcome to the Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert led AFC West. With Fuller and Darby already in the fold adding Surtain allows the Broncos the flexibility in their nickel and dime packages to compete with the Chiefs and Chargers.
Surtain II was a fantastic pick, but it was day two where the Broncos began turning heads. With reports rampant that the Miami Dolphins would select RB Javonte Williams from North Carolina, Denver traded up to the 35th pick one spot ahead of Miami to snag the explosive running back. Williams ranked second in the NCAA on rushes of 10 or more yards and led the nation in avoided tackles. He was considered by many to be the last elite back in the draft after Alabama’s Najee Harris, & Travis Etienne both went in the first round.
Paton then traded back twice before selecting Quinn Meinerz out of Wisconsin-Whitewater. Meinerz sat out the 2020 season and with extensive recorded workouts and improved conditioning earned an invitation to the Senior Bowl, where his performance catapulted him up draft boards. NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah rated him the 45th overall prospect in the draft and it was a surprise a player of his caliber was still available so late in round four.
It’s been quite an eventful offseason to this point but the organization is far from done. They have six picks from rounds five through seven. Then they must get everyone signed and on the field for OTA’s. He’ll need Drew Lock (currently ranked as the QB35 according to this fantasy football cheat sheet) to take the next step in his development and O-Line coach Mike Munchak to start earning his paycheck but Paton has placed the Broncos squarely on the path for the playoffs.