The fantasy football industry has grown to make accountability one of its core tenets, so it’s only right that we look back at our hot takes article from the 2020 preseason to see what we got right, admit what we got wrong, and analyze whether each take’s process was sound. It’s time for a heat check.
For each take, I will point out the 2020 result related to the player in question, followed by my own approximation of why the take was sharp or fell flat. Remember, these are HOT TAKES, so it’s likely more were wrong than they were right. But hey: Go BIG or go HOME.
BAKER MAYFIELD WILL REBOUND FROM LAST YEAR’S STRUGGLES AND FINISH AS A TOP 12 QB
Result: Baker Mayfield finished as the QB17 in 4-point per passing TD leagues.
Analysis: Mayfield threw fewer than 500 passes in 2020, and this makes it extremely hard to be a QB1 in fantasy, unless you have significant rushing upside. The three QBs with fewer than 500 pass attempts who finished AHEAD of Mayfield this season include: Cam Newton (368), Lamar Jackson (376) and Ryan Tannehill (481). Each of these QBs had at least 7 rushing TDs (along with plenty of rushing yards) to supplement their lack of passing.
You can blame Kevin Stefanski’s scheme, you can blame the Odell Beckham Jr. injury, and you can even blame some bad weather games sprinkled in. But when it comes down to it, Mayfield’s 54/165/1 rushing line on the season didn’t have the juice to make him a QB1 on so few pass attempts.
Result: JT finished the 2020 season as the RB6 in both PPR and Half-PPR scoring.
Analysis: Talent don’t lie! While he was thrust into greater opportunity faster with a season-ending injury to Marlon Mack and struggled through the middle portion of the year, Taylor ended up making the most of his chances. He proved through the last five weeks of the season he has what it takes to be a true bell cow in the league. It’s worth noting Taylor’s 35+ point performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17 went a long way toward solidifying his position among the fantasy community.
CAM AKERS IS THE ROOKIE RB1 AND FINISHES AS A TOP 12 RB
Result: Cam Akers finished as the RB43 in Half-PPR scoring for 2020.
Analysis: This is a tough one, considering that because @FantasyDukes got his take right, that @BpoFSU would get his wrong. While Akers started to come on toward the end of the year, he was not implemented into the Rams’ running game early enough to have an RB1 season. We have Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown (but most importantly Sean McVay) to thank for that. On the plus side, Akers has a ton of hype from our team going into 2021.
RONALD JONES HOLDS OFF THE COMPETITION AND FINISHES AS A LOW-END RB1
Result: Ronald Jones finished the 2020 season as the RB16 in Half-PPR scoring. His stat line was 192 rushes for 978 yards and 7 rushing TDs, along with 28 receptions for 165 yards and 1 receiving TD.
Analysis: The reason I bring up RoJo’s exact stats is because Paulie hit half of this on the nuts. From our article back in August: “My projection for Jones sits at 190 carries for 855 yards & 42 receptions for 378 yards with 8+ TDs.” That’s a pretty damn good rushing estimate from Paulie, and it deserves props. It’s sucks that RoJo ultimately couldn’t steal that passing work away from Leonard Fournette and secure true RB1 status; as of now I’m not sure he ever will.
NICK CHUBB WILL BE A TOP 3 DYNASTY RB THIS TIME NEXT YEAR
Result: Nick Chubb finished the 2020 season as the RB9 in Half-PPR on 12 games played. As of January 2021, Chubb is outside the Top 6 RBs in dynasty startup ADP.
Analysis: According to dynastyleaguefootball.com, the top 6 RBs in January 2021 startup ADP are Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, and D’Andre Swift. If Chubb doesn’t go down with an injury mid-season, there’s a good chance he’s in this grouping. Nevertheless, I like where Brad’s head is at here. He’s had the Browns’ offensive line ranked higher than most, which goes a long way toward Chubb’s long term success. Year two in Kevin Stefanski’s offense should also allow for a jump in production.
My only concern is Brad predicted the departure of Kareem Hunt in the offseason, but the Browns signed Hunt to a team-friendly extension through 2022 back in September. We love us some Nick Chubb at The Undroppables, but I’m afraid his fantasy ceiling is capped while he serves as the thunder to Kareem Hunt’s lightning.
Result: D.J. Moore finished as the WR21 in Half-PPR for 2020, with only 66 receptions on 118 targets (55.9 catch %).
Analysis: Boy, could I have not missed this further! Moore was the WR7 in my 2020 rankings, and I was ready for him to explode with a seemingly better QB situation compared to 2019. It turns out the addition of Robby Anderson, combine with how Matt Rhule wanted to utilize his WR corps, did not work out in Moore’s favor.
Moore was used deeper down field than he’d ever been before (13.2 average depth of target compared to 2019’s 11.1) and I’m confident Teddy Bridgewater’s accuracy on deeper throws did little to help the situation. Moore has also become a bit like Julio Jones with his current trend of not finding the end zone more than four times in a season. That lack of positive regression never helps.
Result: Justin Jefferson led the Vikings with 88 receptions for 1,400 yards. He was followed by Adam Thielen, who had 74 receptions for 925 yards.
Analysis: What a call by Randal! While I faded Adam Thielen myself because of age, what I failed to logically follow that up with was bullishness for Jefferson. Both receivers did well for fantasy purposes, but Jefferson immediately stepping into a #1 WR role for the Vikings as a rookie was a major win if you took a chance on him late in your draft.
Result: Jonnu Smith finished 2020 as the TE10 in Half-PPR.
Analysis: It happened again. Tight End sucked for fantasy except for a couple of elite players and guys with a high number of TDs. Many of us at The Undroppables were bullish on Smith as a sleeper going into the year given his athletic profile and opportunity available in the offense, but what we failed to factor in was the fourth-year breakout of Corey Davis. I don’t think anyone saw that coming.
Smith was banged up at one point in the year as well, and the Titans really started to spread the targets to their tight ends around between Smith, Anthony Firkser, and MyCole Pruitt. The whole thing felt like a bit of a mystery. Right now, it’s hard to double down on Smith in Tennessee for 2021.
Result: Darren Waller finished as the TE2 in Half-PPR scoring for 2020, nearly 75 points ahead of the TE3 Robert Tonyan.
Analysis: I believe Luke said it best back in August: “Looking at some of the most predictive stats to following season fantasy points (r^2 > 40%), Waller was second in YAC, fourth in receiving first downs per game, and third in receiving yards per game among tight ends. Looking beyond production, he’s more athletic than almost every other TE in the league, with a 99th percentile speed score and 90th percentile burst score. Both 2019’s production and his athleticism add up to a big year in 2020.”
Luke went on to say people faded Waller’s potential for targets because of newly-drafted rookie wide receivers, but Waller’s talent would continue to earn him targets. This was great process from Luke here, and an even better result if you bought into Waller.
For more fantasy football content, please subscribe to our YouTube channel, and follow us on Twitter @TheUndroppables. Of course, feel free to follow or chat with any of the Undroppables members tagged above and see what they have to say for themselves!
As we wrap our heads around a potential landmark year in offseason moves, The Undroppables will be breaking down each division team by team, highlighting the key players at each skill position for their offense, how they performed in 2020, and what could change for them in 2021.
We are kicking off this series of posts with coverage on the NFC East from one of the newest Undroppables, Michael Duncan. As a die hard Eagles fan, Michael is one of the best on our team to give us a pulse on the division.
Washington Football Team
2020 Fantasy Results
QB: Alex Smith, QB37 (9.95 PPG)
RB: Antonio Gibson, RB12 (13.2 PPG)
WR: Terry McLaurin, WR21 (12.0 PPG)
TE: Logan Thomas, TE6 (8.8 PPG)
Projected Starters for 2021
QB: Alex Smith
RB: Antonio Gibson
WR: Terry McLaurin, Kelvin Harmon, Cam Sims
TE: Logan Thomas
Potential Offseason Changes
Like any franchise, this team’s offseason plan will start with the question surrounding the quarterback position. Alex Smith will, deservedly, be the Comeback Player of the Year, even after ending the season sitting out their playoff loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Smith sitting out opened America’s eyes to the surprisingly impressive quarterback play of a guy who wasn’t on an NFL roster a couple months ago, Taylor Heinicke. While Smith is currently under contract next season, Heinicke is not. Heinicke will be a restricted free agent come March, and I’d be surprised if Washington doesn’t do everything in their power to keep him, especially with the news of Alex Smith contemplating retirement.
Other than the quarterback position, the biggest possible loss for Washington is that of 30-year old All-Pro Guard Brandon Scherff. He played on the franchise tag in 2020, and there have been reports that Washington would like to work out a long-term deal. Scherff is most definitely the anchor from an otherwise unimpressive offensive line. Also a free agent (an exclusive rights free agent that is) is breakout wide receiver Cam Sims. Given the nature of the exclusive rights free agent designation, it would be a surprise to see him playing anywhere other than Washington next season.
Free Agency and the Draft
Estimated at around $32 million in cap space this offseason, Washington will have more money than most to play with in free agency. Of the teams with money to spend, they also find themselves in a spot where they could possibly see themselves in the market for a major offensive overhaul, more so than some of the other teams with cap space to spare.
With so many QBs on the move this offseason, it would be a surprise to see Washington not make an move for one of the veterans that could be possibly be available, even with Stafford heading to L.A. While I believe Logan Thomas is legitimately good at football and Terry McLaurin is going to be a great wide receiver in this league, I would not be shocked to see someone from this crop of free agent wide receivers choose to play for a team coached by Ron Rivera. Can you imagine Kenny Golladay in Washington with McLaurin as Golladay’s speedy counterpart? Count me in.
As for the draft, the Football Team has eight picks, starting with #19 overall. I lean toward the expectation of seeing offensive line help come for them early in the draft, along with possible help at linebacker or safety. They already have impressive defense led by their defensive line, but they will be losing some of their depth this offseason.
Offensively, bolstering their line would only help their standout rookie Antonio Gibson, along with whomever will be throwing the ball for them next season. Washington has little proven talent outside of Terry McLaurin in the WR room, so in another draft that’s extremely deep at the position, I expect to see one added to the team on day one or day two who could contribute immediately. If they were picking earlier in the first round, I would consider the possibility of a quarterback, but given the options I expect to be on the board at pick 19, I think they’re better suited for a veteran passer.
New York Giants
2020 Fantasy Results
QB: Daniel Jones, QB24 (13.57 PPG)
RB: Wayne Gallman, RB32 (8.4 PPG)
WR: Sterling Shepard, WR46 (10.8 PPG)
TE: Evan Engram, TE16 (6.8 PPG)
Projected Starters for 2021
QB: Daniel Jones
RB: Saquon Barkley
WR: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton
TE: Evan Engram
Potential Offseason Changes
As of right now, most big names on the Giants offense are under contract for the 2021 season. Only one starter, right tackle Cameron Fleming, has an expiring contract. The offensive line has been an issue for the Giants over the past few years, and last year was no exception. The Giants finished as the 31st ranked offensive line in the NFL last year according to PFF’s offensive line rankings. Their first rounder Andrew Thomas struggled, and it’s hard to think that simply a new O-line coach will fix that.
Saquon Barkley is currently rehabbing a torn ACL, and all of his backups in Alfred Morris, Dion Lewis, and Wayne Gallman are all set to be free agents. It’ll be interesting to see if any of them come back, particularly Wayne Gallman, to back up Barkley. Golden Tate, who will be 33 this upcoming season, is still under contract, but could be cut for a dead cap hit of only $4M, while saving $6M against the cap for the Giants. Evan Engram will be playing on an unguaranteed fifth-year option this season. Both have dealt with injuries, especially Engram, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the team move on from either of them this offseason.
Free Agency and the Draft
It’s been difficult to tell this offseason where teams currently are in terms of the 2021 cap, as it hasn’t been set yet due to the coronavirus pandemic. It seems as though the Giants are hovering around the projected cap and could even be a bit over the current estimate. This will not give them a ton of flexibility this offseason to add a lot of outside help, especially if they hope to retain their free agents on the defensive side of the ball. I expect it to be a rather quiet free agency period for the Giants, even if they rid themselves of some of their more expensive contracts.
The draft has a chance to be fantasy relevant this season, with another loaded class of WRs in the pipeline. If they do choose to move on from Golden Tate, there should be a decent amount of targets to go around in this offense, and at the 11th overall pick, it’s not outside the realm of possibility for the Giants to draft one of the top wideouts available. They may also choose to bolster the offensive line for the second year in a row and possibly address pass catchers in later rounds. At the 11th pick, they might just find themselves out of the race for one of the draft’s premier quarterback talents. I expect Lawrence, Fields, Lance, and Wilson to all go top 10, so unless the Giants brass find themselves enamored with Mac Jones or Kyle Trask, they will probably take another season of going all in on Daniel Jones and hopefully surround him with talent.
Dallas Cowboys
2020 Fantasy Results
QB: Andy Dalton, QB31 (13.08 PPG)
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, RB11 (13.2 PPG)
WR: Amari Cooper, WR16 (11.9 PPG)
TE: Dalton Schultz, TE14 (7.2 PPG)
Projected Starters for 2021
QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup
TE: Blake Jarwin
Potential Offseason Changes
As of right now, the Dallas Cowboys starting quarterback for the 2021 season is…Garrett Gilbert? Ben DiNucci? The point is, as of my writing this Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton are both pending free agents. That being said, I fully expect Dak Prescott to be back with the Cowboys next season. Given that he is coming off of a torn ACL, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Andy Dalton back with the team as well, with another offseason full of QB options being available on the horizon. The only other offensive starter set to be a free agent is center Joe Looney, but this comes a year after drafting a center in the 4th round of the NFL draft who looks to move into that starting role. Along with Prescott, the Cowboys also hope to get 2020 breakout candidate Blake Jarwin back in 2021 after a lost season.
One thing to consider on the other side of the ball is the dismissal of defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, whose unit struggled mightily last season. He was replaced with former Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn. This is notable, as Dak Prescott lit up opposing defenses the first few weeks of the season, in part due to the Cowboys defense’s inability to stop…anybody. If the defense improves, we could see the offense lean a bit more on the running game and not have to throw the ball all four quarters just to keep up.
Free Agency and the Draft
The biggest additions the Cowboys should expect to see this offseason will most likely come in the form getting injured players back. If any large additions happen in free agency, they will most likely be on the defensive side of the ball, where new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn might want to reshape his personnel. On offense, the top three wide receiver spots are locked in, as are Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard in the backfield.
The one major question mark on offense is the tight end position, with Dalton Schultz filling in admirably, but not being a true difference-maker. While I do believe the draft, like free agency, will focus heavily on the defensive side of the ball a year after drafting CeeDee Lamb in the first round, the Cowboys do have a decent amount of draft capital and could very well be looking to get younger at the offensive line as well.
Philadelphia Eagles
2020 Fantasy Results
QB: Carson Wentz, QB22 (17.78 PPG)
RB: Miles Sanders, RB23 (13.0 PPG)
WR: Greg Ward, WR59 (6.7 PPG)
TE: Dallas Goedert, TE20 (8.5 PPG)
Projected Starters for 2021
QB: Carson Wentz
RB: Miles Sanders
WR: Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward
TE: Dallas Goedert
Potential Offseason Changes
First and foremost, about a week after the conclusion of their 4-11-1 season, Doug Pederson was relieved of his head coaching duties. While boasting a top offense in 2017 with his QB playing at an MVP level, the Eagles offense since has been slow, stale, and a tad painful to watch. This can be attributed to the loss of different coaches or injuries, but in 2020 it revolved mainly around the incredible regression of that same quarterback Carson Wentz. This led to the firing of the head coach in charge of that offense, and the hiring of Nick Sirianni, previously the offensive coordinator of the Colts.
While there haven’t been any other major changes yet this offseason, the biggest questions most likely revolve around the futures of Carson Wentz and tight end Zach Ertz. While solid in 2018 and 2019, the drafting of Jalen Hurts in the second round and more turnovers last season have led many to believe Carson Wentz could be on the trade block heading into the 2021 season. The same can be said for Zach Ertz, who after five straight years of at least 800 yards and 70 receptions, posted career lows in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Last offseason saw tension between Ertz and the Eagles front office. Ertz hoped for a new contract, while the front office was wary of extending their aging veteran with an extension looming for rising star Dallas Goedert.
Free Agency and the Draft
Right now, the only starter currently without a contract on the Eagles offense is 39 year-old LT/RG Jason Peters, who missed the end of last season with injury. Other notable names that are set to be free agents for the Eagles are third-string TE Richard “Dick Rod” Rodgers, backup RB Boston Scott (restricted FA), and slot receiver Greg Ward (exclusive rights FA).
I expect both Scott and Ward to return to similar roles to 2020, as they should be fairly inexpensive, and the Eagles are extremely cap strapped heading into this offseason. It’s because of the cap that I don’t expect the Eagles to be in a position to spend in free agency, even with a talented and deep wide receiver group available.
More exciting, however, is the Eagles owning the #6 overall pick in the NFL Draft, which puts them in prime position to draft an offensive playmaker. This is a huge need for a team as cap-strapped as the Eagles. After spending a first round pick on Jalen Reagor last season, who I believe fits best as the starting Z receiver, spending the 6th overall pick on a guy like Ja’Marr Chase to be your starting X receiver day one could be huge in rebuilding the offense and getting Carson Wentz back on track.
Past that, the Eagles are currently projected to have nine other picks in the 2021 draft. Even after a year that saw them draft three WRs, we could see them walking away with another two at a position, as it still feels devoid of talent there. While I don’t expect them to draft a running back to greatly compete with Miles Sanders for touches, I think there will be options later in the draft to compete with Boston Scott for the backup role.
Welcome to The Undroppables’ latest series of posts previewing the 2021 QB draft class. The 2021 draft could offer an abundance of talent at the position similar to the 2018 class, which saw four quarterbacks drafted in the top ten and five in the first round. In each post, I will cover a tier of 2021 QB prospects, starting with the Best of the Best and workingour way through the sleepers and potential career backups.
You may have thought we forgot about these QBs, as there was an extended absence of these articles over the past weeks. However, I promise I did not forget and you’ll find plenty of analysis below. Let’s jump right into it:
Jamie Newman – Georgia
Jamie Newman has not taken a snap for Georgia after transferring from Wake Forest and sitting out the 2020 season due to COVID-19. However, Newman had already compiled a decent resume with the Demon Deacons, playing 18 games over the past two seasons. Some believed Newman would declare for last year’s draft, but he will be a member of this year’s class and he has accepted an invitation to this year’s Senior Bowl.
Strengths
Newman is one of the most athletic prospects in this year’s draft, and he used this athleticism in college to become a terrific and powerful runner. Wake Forest allowed him to showcase his rushing ability often in zone reads, power runs, and by giving him the ability to scramble after quick reads. Along with the rushing ability that Newman showed at Wake, he also has other physical gifts that will be enticing to NFL scouts. At 6’4″ 230 lbs, he has the ideal size for the QB position and has above-average arm strength to go with it. If he can clean up the mental areas of his game, his potential is incredibly high.
Weaknesses
While Newman has a ton of physical tools at his disposal, he has yet to show that he can put it all together at an NFL level. His mental skillset has lagged behind his physical gifts, and he will need to improve on his accuracy, anticipation, and decision making. Secondly, Wake Forest’s spread offense did not put Newman in positions where he had to read the entire field, and he is likely lacking in this area as well. Overall, if Newman grows to the mental level needed to be an NFL starter, he can absolutely succeed at the next level. However, he has a long way to go when looking at his 2019 tape. It’s possible that he has worked hard on these areas of his games in his time off in 2020, but he seems to have failed to excite scouts at the recent Senior Bowl.
My Grade: C // Projected Draft Capital: 3rd round – 5th round
Zac Thomas – Appalachian State
Thomas burst onto the scene as the Mountaineers starting Quarterback in 2018. In his first start, Thomas led App State to overtime against #9 Penn State, although he wasn’t able to pull through for a win. Over the rest of the 2018 season, App State went 10-0 with Thomas starting. Thomas passed for over 2,000 yards while throwing for 21 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions, along with 10 rushing touchdowns. His play earned him the 2018 Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year and New Orleans Bowl MVP.
Thomas went on to throw for another 28 touchdowns and 2,718 passing yards in 2019, while only throwing 6 interceptions with the Mountaineers winning 13 of their 14 games. Thomas put up good numbers again in his senior season, as he scored another 20 passing touchdowns along with 2,189 passing yards. He finished his NCAA career with a 32-6 record as the starter.
Strengths
First of all, Thomas runs the ball very well, threatening defenses with his legs and allowing receivers to get open. Thomas pairs this running threat with the ability to make accurate throws on the run when the pocket crumbles or on designed bootlegs. However, Thomas isn’t just accurate on the run, he is one of the most accurate short-pass QBs in the class in the pocket too. Overall, Thomas had a great college career and has some serious skill in some areas of the game, but I don’t think he’ll be able to make up for his weaknesses.
Weaknesses
While Zac Thomas has been a very good college Quarterback, he has very obvious pitfalls that will lead NFL scouts away from him. First of all, the Mountaineers have had a strong run game while Thomas has been at the helm, and this has allowed him to get a lot of his passing production off of play-action and/or against stacked boxes. Secondly, Thomas lacks the requisite arm-strength for an NFL Quarterback. He struggles to beat coverage to the boundary on outside throws, which usually produces interceptions at the next level. Thomas also has issues pushing the ball downfield on deep throws.
My Grade: D // Projected Draft Capital: 6th Round – Undrafted
Shane Buechele – Southern Methodist
Shane Buechele began his collegiate career as a four-star prospect at the University of Texas, competing for the starting job right off the bat. After winning the job in camp, Buechele became just the second-ever true freshman to start the season at QB for the Longhorns. His collegiate career began with a bang, as he led Texas to a double-overtime win over #10 Notre Dame. By Week 10, Buechele broke the record for most passing yards by a freshman in Texas history.
Unfortunately, Buechele’s second season for the Longhorns did not go as well as his first. After sustaining various injuries throughout the season, Buechele saw his starting job go to Sam Ehlinger. Buechele stayed at Texas as Elhinger’s backup in 2018 before transferring in-state to Southern Methodist before the 2019 season. He played two seasons for the Mustangs and threw for a combined 7,024 yards and 57 touchdowns in their air-raid system.
Strengths
Buechele was incredibly consistent in his two seasons at SMU, finding the open man and usually throwing an accurate ball. He really found his stride in the quick passing game that comes with the air-raid system. He can throw the ball downfield accurately on some occasions, but lacks the requisite arm strength for deep passes to the sideline.
Buechele is also good at keeping his eyes downfield while evading pressure. Off the field, Buechele is well-regarded with coaches and teammates as a leader and a teammate. He’s a very good QB in the mental areas of the position, but he likely won’t make it as a starter in the league due to his lack of physical tools. He reminds me of Kellen Moore or any other of the litany of career backups in the league. Similar to Moore, I could see Buechele joining the coaching ranks after his playing career is over.
Weaknesses
Buechele is a solid athlete for the position, but his legs don’t cause opposing defenses to lose sleep. He lacks the prototypical NFL QB size, standing at only 6’1″, 207 lbs. As for the passing game, Buechele’s throwing motion is worrisome. He tends to have too much wasted motion. In addition, his arm strength is lackluster when compared to NFL QBs, his passes can die on deep throws and he can’t attack the sidelines as well as most.
Overall, I like Buechele as a backup QB that a team can get on day three of the draft. He likely won’t have any fantasy appeal, but he is the type of guy that can help a team in many of the hidden facets of the game.
That’s it for 2021 Rookie QB evaluations! Make sure to follow Kyle on Twitter @KL_Fantasy. You can find the rest of his Rookie QB Previews and other Undroppables rookie content here.
Can you believe how fast January went by? I can, because I almost forgot to put out our movies blog for the month. On the plus side, movie recommendations that aren’t centered around a holiday like Halloween or Christmas are much more evergreen, so you can still check out these trailers/synopses and pick something to watch for the 40+ remaining weekends of the year. Let’s dive in, as they say.
Da 5 Bloods
Per the synopsis by Netflix on YouTube, Spike Lee’s latest joint follows a group of African-American veterans returning to Vietnam, “Searching for the remains of their fallen Squad Leader.” This is one of the late Chadwick Boseman’s final performances in film, so it’s a must-watch on my list.
Sound of Metal
Heralded by many as the best film of 2020, Sound of Metal follows a drummer dealing with hearing loss and going deaf. Between the stellar sound mixing and powerful acting, this movie makes for an emotional whirlwind that is also right at the top of my list.
Tenet
If you are looking for an espionage-based blockbuster mindfuck, then this movie was made for you. Written and directed by Christopher Nolan, (Memento, Inception) Tenet is another project that deals with the concept of time and pushes our understanding of it to its limit. Some suspension of disbelief is necessary to immerse yourself in a world where everything moves in reverse alongside our own reality.
Kong: Skull Island and Godzilla: King of the Monsters
I thought I was only going to recommend 2020 movies, but Godzilla vs. Kong is coming in March, and if you need some turn-you-brain-off monster movies, these are pretty decent options to have on in the background while cooking or working out. Or you could just look up the massive CGI fight scenes on YouTube.
We’re back with another Mock Draft! This time we shook things up by drafting rookies in the context of 1QB Dynasty Leagues instead of Superflex. Between the league format, younger players returning to college, and new players declaring, the value of many prospects changed significantly from our previous draft.
This draft took place from January 17th – 19th with members of The Undroppables team. Any new information from this week’s Senior Bowl practices had no impact on drafting decisions. Check out the picks each GM made and their reasoning for each below!
Since this draft was 1QB, this selection was easy. Chase IS THE WR1, and it’s not even close. I shun all individuals who mention Devonta Smith’s name first. Chase possesses speed, size, route running, and the ability to target each pass like a sniper looking through a scope. Chase is a guaranteed top-10 NFL draft pick, and current projections have him going to teams with solid QBs, giving him an even more significant boost to his fantasy value. –@JMan_FF
Getting Harris at 1.02 in a non-superflex league was a little surprising. I was expecting Chase to be there, but when Justin snagged him my decision was easy. In 2020, there was only one running back in college football who can say he ranked top-2 in first downs created, yards AFTER contact, and carries of 10+ yards. You guessed it, that was Harris. As if that wasn’t enough, Harris ranked second on Alabama in receiving market share share (percentage of team’s receiving yards) only behind the eventual 2020 Heisman winner Devonta Smith. Najee is a complete running back and will be an exciting fantasy football asset. –@TheRealAdam_H
It is widely debated whether Etienne’s decision to stay in school another year cost him, as the Clemson back had an up and down 2020 college season. He enters the draft this year possessing a rare blend of size, explosiveness, vision, control, and contact balance. At 5’10” and 205 lbs, Etienne runs through arm tackles and can hit his top gear to make big time plays. My current RB2 of this class has flashed 3-down bell cow upside throughout a stellar college career, where he posted 4,952 rushing yards on 686 carries with 70 touchdowns. He also added 1,155 receiving yards on 102 receptions with eight touchdowns. Etienne can do it all and should be an instant contributor from day one. –@101chalk
1.04 – Kyle Pitts – TE – Florida – Jr. – 6’6” 240
No one in this draft is more dominant at his position than Pitts. His 770 yards in 2020 was 27th most in the nation at 17.9 yards per reception. Not bad for a tight end who only played 8 games. Calling him generational is using the term correctly. –@Masterjune70
1.05 – Javonte Williams – RB – North Carolina – Jr. – 5’10” 220
I was all set to select Kyle Pitts here and the newly-minted FF DEVYL sniped me. That’s okay, because Javonte Williams is nobody’s consolation prize. A relative unknown at the start of this past season, no one else made as much of his opportunity to play college ball this year than Williams. A big, physical runner who is more than adequate as a receiver and capable of ripping off chunk yardage. He has all the tools to become a highly successful RB1. –@FF_Terminator
Devonta Smith at the 1.06 was an easy selection for me in 1QB formats. Smith put together one of the most impressive collegiate WR seasons in recent memory, averaging over 140 receiving yards per game with nearly 2 all purpose TDs per game (1.85). Smith was the first WR to win the Heisman trophy since Desmond Howard in 1991, and getting him to fall to the mid-first round in 1QB leagues was a steal. –@FantasyandSport
Rashod Bateman is one of my favorite WR prospects in the draft, and I think he’ll be slightly underrated throughout the draft process due to his opt-out in 2020. As a sophomore with Minnesota in 2019, Bateman amassed a 60 reception, 1,219 yard, 11 touchdown stat line. He only played 5 games in 2020 before opting out, but he played well, as he averaged 7 receptions and 94 yards per game. Bateman profiles as an alpha receiver at the next level who combines excellent ball skills with strong route running all in a well-built 6’1” frame. –@KL_Fantasy
1.08 – Trevor Lawrence – QB – Clemson – Jr. – 6’6” 220
In the first round of a rookie draft, it’s easy for prospects to gain hype, jump off the page, and get drafted at a higher ADP than their true range of outcomes. There are plenty of prospects that could receive this treatment in the coming months, but Trevor Lawrence is not one of these players. Since his debut as the starter for Clemson, Lawrence has been one of the most talked about and highly touted college quarterbacks of this generation. He seemingly has no question marks, and has drawn comparisons to Andrew Luck. With luxury draft capital in a vacuum, give me the player that’s projected to be a staple of the NFL for years to come, and a player you can build your team around in both real life and in fantasy. –@AndrewMackens
1.09 – Rondale Moore – WR – Purdue – Jr. – 5’9” 180
I could not pass up the opportunity to select my favorite college football player in recent years, and from my alma mater no less. I got the chance to watch Rondale Moore play up close and personal his freshman year, and he was indescribably good. I’ll try though… extremely strong lower body, excellent speed, great vision, great hands, great ball tracking… you get the point. I think he’ll eventually regain that form after a short junior season in which he returned from an injury that derailed his sophomore year. Moore’s ceiling is sky high. –@fantasydukes
With this pick, I felt like Waddle was the last elite prospect available. While I have some questions about Waddle, it’s really easy to jump to best-case scenario with him. He’s lightning fast and was absolutely dominating in 2020 before he got hurt. Give me the upside at pick 1.10. –@DynoGameTheory
Tylan Wallace was a Sophomore breakout at age 19 with a dominant season in 2018, and is now coming off two shortened years with his ACL tear in 2019 and the COVID year in 2020. His 2nd year recovered from that ACL tear will be his NFL rookie season. Wallace is very good at the catch point and even better afterwards. Dude will be a playmaker in the NFL. He should easily be a Day 2 pick in the NFL Draft. –@BradWireFF
1.12 – Terrace Marshall Jr. – WR – LSU – Jr. – 6’3” 205
Here’s another great WR to come out of LSU. Plus, he’s more OBJ than Jarvis Landry. Marshall is a big-play WR that excels at making tough catches in the end zone. He wasn’t a high volume WR even with Burrow in 2019, which makes him a polarizing prospect because he was playing second fiddle to Justin Jefferson. In 2020, he surpassed his 2019 output in fewer games and with a less-than-stellar QB, suggesting he was ready for a big-time breakout with a full season. Still, you can’t knock 23 TDs in 2 years from a WR. His rookie draft position at the end of the 1st Round seems perfect to me. –@2on1FFB
Round 2
2.01 – Amon-Ra St. Brown – WR – USC – Jr. – 6’1” 195
What if I told you, you could draft Justin Jefferson in the 2nd round of your rookie drafts? Would that be something of interest to you? Because that’s who Amon-Ra St. Brown can be. Both St. Brown and Jefferson have similar profiles. Slot-type receivers with size, length, and speed. They’re both excellent run-after-catchers with explosive wheels, helping to separate from any DB. In 2019, Jefferson as a Junior collected 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 TDs, good for 13.9 YPR. St. Brown hit 13.5 YPR on just 77 receptions and six TDs as a Sophomore. The difference was QB play. Jefferson had Joe Burrow, (5,600 yards & 60TDs) while St. Brown had Kedon Slovis (3,500 yards and 30 TDs) –@JMan_FF
I know there aren’t many successful RBs in the NFL who weigh under 200lbs. Then again, there aren’t many players who relegate Antonio Gibson to a backup roll. As a sophomore, the Memphis coaching staff was so impressed with Gainwell that they made Antonio Gibson a WR. Gainwell opted out of the 2020 season, so many have forgotten how electric he was in 2019. That season, Gainwell rushed for over 1,400 yards (top 10 among Power Five RBs) and led Memphis in target share, ahead of the aforementioned Gibson. Maybe taking Gainwell early in the second is a risk, but I am always looking for young RB talent on my Dynasty rosters. –@TheRealAdam_H
2.03 – Justin Fields – QB – Ohio State – Jr. – 6’3” 228
Even in a 1QB league, locking in young franchise QBs makes building a dynasty team that much easier. Fields is projected as a franchise cornerstone who will be making waves for years to come. With the Konami Code and his ability to shred defenses from the pocket, Fields is locked in as the 2nd-best QB in this class. Throughout three years in college, Fields passed for over 5,700 yards (9.2 Y/A), 67 touchdowns, and only 9 interceptions. Unless he lands on a team that will not take advantage of his strengths and versatility, Fields should develop nicely into a strong NFL QB. –@101chalk
Sermon has been on a rollercoaster ride as of late. Before 2020, he was lost in the running back shuffle. He rose to relevancy after a 2020 late-season surge. Then an injury in the National Championship game has soured many people again. Not me. It’s not a significant setback, and the tape and analytics both show that this player is talented. Sermon has the size & ability to be a future bell cow. –@Masterjune70
2.05 – Pat Freiermuth – TE – Penn State – Jr. – 6’5” 258
Sniped by the DEVYL again! I was all set to select Trey Sermon here, but it might have worked out in my favor, because no matter how far the NFL trends into the modern age, there will always be a need for tight ends. An animal in any run-blocking scheme, Freiermuth’s value will be in his versatility in the passing game and the mismatches he’ll win in coverage. He’s a Gronk-like specimen who could sneak into the first round and make an instant impact at the next level. –@FF_Terminator
Kadarius Toney out of Florida is a versatile, shifty receiver that can be lined up all over the field, taking snaps from the slot and the backfield. Toney had 984 receiving yards this season in 11 games, adding on 161 rushing yards and 11 all purpose touchdowns. Toney’s unique skillset makes him an intriguing prospect for both fantasy and the NFL, and this makes his landing spot and draft capital pretty important to his early opportunity. Still, at the 2.06 in 1QB leagues, I think that taking a shot here is justified, especially since landing spot matters so much for RBs, making running backs in the second round of rookie drafts especially risky before the NFL draft. –@FantasyandSport
2.07 – Sage Surratt – WR – Wake Forest – Jr. – 6’3” 215
Tommy Mo (@2on1FFB) really put me onto Surratt during the Undroppables Mock Draft 1.0, and I’ve only been even more impressed once I started digging into Surratt myself. Surratt caught 66 passes for 1,001 yards and 11 TDs in 2019 before opting out of the 2020 season. Surratt isn’t the fastest prospect, but he is a pretty big WR at 6’2” and 215 lbs. He leverages that frame incredibly well in contested catch situations, and he’ll do nicely beating corners to the ball in the NFL. –@KL_Fantasy
2.08 – Seth Williams – WR – Auburn – Jr. – 6’3” 211
I like Seth Williams in this spot for a lot of the same reasons Kyle liked Surratt a pick prior. Williams is a big-bodied receiver who high-points balls left and right. He’s a matchup nightmare for undersized DBs, and the fact he produced in the SEC means a lot to me. Between his size, college dominator rating, and breakout age, Williams hits most of the traits necessary to be a top-24 Dynasty WR. –@AndrewMackens
Chuba Hubbard was a name people were putting very high on their lists after the 2019 season. This year we saw him struggle a little though, namely in pass coverage, which could definitely be an issue in the NFL. He might not be the multidimensional, 3-down RB we hoped for, but his vision and speed in the right offense could give him a role that is good for fantasy. –@fantasydukes
2.10 – Michael Carter – RB North Carolina – Sr. – 5’8″ 199
I had a very difficult time deciding who to take with this selection: Dyami Brown, Tamorrion Terry and Rhamondre Stevenson were all on my radar. Michael Carter is an explosive, elusive and versatile back who has Miles Sanders-type upside, but he’s no sure bet. –@DynoGameTheory
2.11 – Dyami Brown – WR – North Carolina – Jr. – 6’1” 185
Brown will likely be a vertical threat/burner type in the NFL. He’s great at the catch point, plus he has the feet and burst to get off the line. –@BradWireFF
2.12 – Trey Lance – QB – North Dakota State – Jr. – 6’4” 225
Trey Lance sitting out 2020 did little to hurt his draft stock, as maybe only Zach Wilson comes close to surpassing Lance as the QB3 of this draft class. Lance’s release is quick and he has a strong arm, throwing beautiful spirals on his deep pass. He moves well in the pocket, (good feet and pocket awareness) and will turn on the jets when needed. He only played one year in 2019, throwing for 28 TDs and 0 INTs, and can be a little inconsistent at times in his throws, making him a project QB. When you’re drafting Lance in dynasty leagues, don’t plan for him to start right away. But, depending on landing spot, he may get the Jalen Hurts treatment and get some late season playing time. –@2on1FFB
Round 3
3.01 – Zach Wilson – QB – BYU – Jr. – 6’3” 210
Zach Wilson is a guaranteed first-round selection in 2021 for both NFL and Superflex teams. So getting him in the 3rd round is an absolute steal! Wilson reminds me a lot of Justin Herbert: arm strength, accuracy, and a perfect pair of wheels. The only “knock” on him will be the level of competition he faced. Wilson showed excellent progression through his collegiate career, increasing his completion %, yards per attempt, and touchdown numbers from his Sophomore to Junior years. The only primary concern now is his landing spot. If selected in the top-10, it will likely be places like Atlanta, Carolina, or Detroit, all premium landing spots. However, if he falls to New England, Chicago, or Las Vegas, we might need to tamper immediate expectations. –@JMan_FF
3.02 – Brevin Jordan – TE – Miami – Jr. – 6’3” 240
In the year of Kyle Pitts, all other college TEs seem inferior. Jordan may not be the most complete TE, which could result in him being drafted after other TE prospects. On tape, Jordan looks like the type of athletic prototype that excels in the NFL, therefore his pro day will be vital. If he tests well, he could be a great value later in rookie drafts, where other fantasy managers will look at the TE position as Pitts or bust. –@TheRealAdam_H
3.03 – Tamorrion Terry – WR- FSU – Jr. – 6’4” 210
Much of what I like about Tamorrion Terry is also what terrifies me as it reminds me of mega bust Hakeem Butler. Terry boasts size and big play abilities including high pointing the ball in contested catch situations. But Terry’s consistency, concentration and problems with drops makes me a risky proposition. Given the lack of high ceiling options this late in the rookie draft, I’ll take my chances that Terry can develop into a better route runner who gets past his concentration issues. –@101chalk
3.04 – Elijah Moore – WR – Ole Miss – Jr. – 5’9” 185
Moore is a tenacious, dominant, and versatile player who plays “huge” despite his 5’8″ 185-lb frame. He was only behind Devonta Smith in the entire nation for most receptions and yards in 2020. He’s the next Ole Miss WR ready to make a splash in the NFL, following in the footsteps of A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf. –@Masterjune70
Under-recruited. Undersized. Undroppable. The best player you’ve never heard of, Patterson is a bowling ball who ran roughshod over the Mid-American conference. Every run is spent the way he’s spent his whole life, fighting for everything. Every yard. He displays tremendous contact balance and is shifty enough in space to break away from defenders. This is a stacked class, but Patterson should find his way into the fourth round where he’ll be a factor in someone’s running back room instantly. –@FF_Terminator
Rhamondre Stevenson out of Oklahoma put together a productive (shortened) season this year, gaining 665 rushing yards and 211 receiving yards in 6 games, adding on seven touchdowns. Stevenson’s strong, dense frame at 6’0 246 lbs lends itself well to short-yardage success, with enough athleticism to be used as an all-around rusher. Stevenson’s receiving work, while not extensive, still demonstrates potential for growth, offering upside that’s difficult to find this late in a rookie draft. Pre-NFL Draft, outside of the top running backs I like to wait and take WRs since their success is more independent of landing spot in my opinion, but at this stage of the draft Stevenson is a solid pick. –@FantasyandSport
In order to keep with the theme of my draft, I added yet another big-bodied, opted-out WR in the third round. Collins is a big play threat at 6’4” and possesses excellent speed for his size, (supposedly running a 4.45 40 earlier this year) but Michigan’s woes at the QB position led to Collins not producing the same numbers as many other WRs in this class. He profiles as a starter who can make big plays, but still needs to flesh out his game. However, he has the athletic profile to become one of the NFL’s elite. –@KL_Fantasy
3.08 – Kylin Hill – RB – Mississippi State – Sr. – 5’11” 210
With my last pick in the draft and no running back taken as of yet, I wanted to take a shot on someone at the position, and Hill fit the bill in a few different ways. His size is solid, he looks shifty from what I’ve seen of his tape so far, and he ended his college career with 5.6 yards per carry. Where Hill lands in the NFL draft and in what round he’s drafted will tell a lot in terms of whether this is a worthwhile value pick. –@AndrewMackens
When you think about the modern NFL, you can easily picture a role for Javian Hawkins. He is a smaller guy, but has excellent speed and quickness with great balance. He’s had a lot of work already as a receiver out of the backfield at the college level and would likely earn a role in that capacity in the NFL. Teams are always looking for guys that can provide versatility and get downfield quick, and Hawkins fits the bill. –@fantasydukes
3.10 – Jermar Jefferson – Oregon State – Jr. – 5’10” 217
Jermar Jefferson possesses prototypical size for an NFL running back. He averaged 98 rushing yards and 5.4 yards per carry over his first two seasons at Oregon St. In a shortened 2020 season as a junior, he was up to 143 yards per game on 6.5 YPC. Jermar could shoot up draft boards if he gets some NFL draft capital. –@DynoGameTheory
Coxie is 6’3″ and should come in around or above 200lbs. He’s not the fastest guy, but he has great feet and shows good blocking ability which will get him on the field. His body control, ability to find zones, and create extra yards after catch/contact will keep him on the field. I don’t normally do comps, but I see a bit of Alshon Jeffery in his game. –@BradWireFF
When it comes to speed and taking a slant routes to the house, Stevenson reminds me of Henry Ruggs: get the ball in his hands and watch him let loose on the defense. He did suffer a season-long ACL injury in 2017, and then hurt his ankle in 2020, so injuries will be a concern. But if he’s fully healthy, he’s a burner. Stevenson is possibly one of the fastest guys in the draft, and he’ll need to showcase that talent at his pro day without a regular NFL Combine this year. As the last pick in this mock draft, and a potential 4th round pick in upcoming rookie drafts, he’s worth a stash on a taxi squad, but he’ll have the opportunity to contribute early on special teams. –@2on1FFB