This week on “The Undrafted”, a fantasy football podcast focusing on dynasty game theory, Scott brings on guest Kane Fossell (@Devy_Kane). The guys talk about everything from the highest profile names to the biggest sleepers in this upcoming rookie class, with some surprises along the way. If you ever wondered how heavy Devonta Smith was in terms of medium-sized bananas, racks of ribs, or karaoke machines, this episode is for you. Tune in or be tuned out.
The QB Conundrum in New England
The Future of QB in New England?
One of the most interesting offseason storylines heading into 2021 is what’s going to happen in New England. Admittedly, my fandom may slightly cloud my opinion as to how interested outsiders are in what happens inside the Evil Empire, but I believe everyone has to be at least a little bit curious how Bill Belichick responds to a 7-9 season.
The needs of the team are long, vital to success, and not always the easiest positions to nail down. If New England wants to retool to compete with Buffalo and the Dolphins, (never mind the larger AFC playoff field) the Patriots will need to fill holes at Wide Receiver, Tight End, Offensive and Defensive line, and that moderately important Quarterback spot.
There is some good news in looking to tackle these challenges. The Patriots are going into the 2021 offseason projected to have over $60 million in available cap space, and that number could even increase several more million if a few players decide to hang up their cleats. Historically, Belichick isn’t known for just backing up the Brink’s truck for players, but it seems as though there will be a concerted effort to not have a repeat season of what we just saw.
The 2021 Free Agent class is headlined by some big-name and high-talent players, with several Quarterbacks (at least in media narrative) available by trade as well. Finally, Belichick will be working with his earliest draft pick in years.
What makes the Patriots offseason so difficult to nail down, and specifically trying to mock draft what could happen in late-April to early-May, is the numerous different ways their off-season could go. To me, there is one position that completely dictates how the draft goes, especially that First Round pick at 15: Quarterback. Below are five scenarios that could dictate the next few years of the franchise.
Scenario 1: The Pipe Dream
John. Matthew. Stafford. As the kids say, that’s it, that’s the tweet. In all seriousness, I think by and large Patriots fans would have this as the best possible outcome at the Quarterback position in 2021 and beyond. Stafford has shown time and time again he is a warrior on the field, battling through more injuries than he probably should. All the while, Stafford has shown his impressive passing ability, which should easily land him in the top 10 in all-time passing yards by the time he retires in a few years.
It’s hard to say just how much gas he has left in the tank. But, even if Stafford is only a two-year guy before he goes, he still would be the top option at QB to lead the current iteration of the Patriots. They have the money to make a splash like this, and it would immediately vault the Patriots back into the contender realm.
Belichick would still have around $30-35 million to spend after Stafford, so in this scenario I would love to see Belichick attack the Wide Receiver Free Agent pool. The two names that jump out the most to me are Allen Robinson and Kenny Golladay. I want to be a little realistic at least, so what would be better than rescuing the top two Lions players from Detroit and bringing them up to Foxboro where their talent and hard work can finally be rewarded!? That’s right, we will be partying at the Golladay Inn in Foxboro! Stafford and Golladay leading the offseason free agent signings, still having the 15th pick in the first round (depending on Stafford cost), and a bit more money to play with… phew… time to light a cigarette.
Scenario 2: Cam 2.0
By the end of the season, I became a big fan of Cam as a leader and a teammate. There were numerous quotes throughout the season from Belichick, McDaniels, and his teammates about the work he put in and the positive culture he brought to the team. I wanted to be a big fan. His personality and work ethic are the traits fanbases long for in their starting Quarterback.
So, why with all of that said is this not my favorite scenario? Watching him all season, his passing ability just wasn’t present enough in the modern NFL for me to feel as though he is the future. I’ll be the first to admit the players surrounding him were not exactly a murderer’s row of all-time greats, and surely that played a role, but from his mechanics to not pulling the trigger when he had a pass to hit, I’m not sold on him leading a strong passing attack moving forward.
That said, it’s no secret how much Belichick loves Cam. I could see a future in which Belichick still believes in Cam and believes the surrounding weapons and talent were the issue, and that Cam can still be the guy. In this scenario I think Belichick once again goes against his history and splurges on a big-name free agent Wide Receiver, and either uses the 15th overall pick or another free agent signing to bring in a second big-time weapon.
Our very own @FF_Terminator wrote about the impressive crop of free agent Wide Receivers, and the more I look at it, the more I want Belichick to pull the trigger on getting two, regardless of who is under center. Beginning the 2021 Training Camp with both a first tier and second tier Wide Receiver signing would immediately provide a massive boost to this team.
Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, or JuJu as a frontline addition, bolstered by a Curtis Samuel, Corey Davis, Will Fuller, or even into the Tight End realm of Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith, would be a massive talent infusion. Now those names also fall under the pipe dream scenario, but with Cam at Quarterback these are the type of big moves they would need to make to put the offense in the best spot. If they can sign Cam to a deal in the $15 million a year range, (a low hit for a starting QB in today’s NFL) bringing in elite talent is possible.
Scenario 3: Bama North
Under this game plan, Belichick attacks the impressive free agent list for ideally two Wide Receivers and a second-tier Tight End (Gerald Everett) to bolster a talent-depleted offensive core. What’s difficult about this scenario is the Quarterback available at #15 in the NFL Draft is an unknown. Do the Patriots move up to secure Trey Lance? Are Mac Jones or Kyle Trask good enough mid-tier prospects? The draft landscape is very much a question mark at this point in time, with risers and fallers still on their way with months to go until the draft.
On top of this, though Belichick really hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down or wanting to ride off into the sunset, he will be 69 next season and waiting for a Rookie Quarterback to develop may not really be within his career window. Starting 2021 with only a rookie QB drafted in the Spring feels like an unlikely scenario. I will say I feel most drawn to the prospects of Mac Jones being the Patriots’ target if they were to go this route. Besides our very own Kyle scouting him, @RayGQue has said some very positive things about Jones (start at 1:50), and the Saban-Belichick connection is an obvious one. If he can be surrounded with some plus talent, the learning curve for Jones may be slightly easier to master.
*If you happen to not follow Ray, as soon as you finish reading this article do yourself and your timeline a favor by making him your newest follow; your college player knowledge will improve greatly*
Scenario 4: The Miami Blueprint
In this scenario, it would play out as a short-term rental that would be there to mentor and keep the QB seat warm until a rookie comes in to take over in 2021 or 2022. The names that would stick out to me that could serve in a role like this (e.g. Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota) would be headlined by the bearded man straight down 95-South in Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick showed he is more than capable to be a starting Quarterback in the league, and though he disagreed with the way the starting job was taken from him, by all accounts he has been a great aid for the development of Tua Tagovailoa. Going into the 2021 season with a QB room of Fitz, Mac Jones, and Stidham is something I think can provide immediate starting level QB play, as well as a roadmap for the Rookie to take over within a two-year window. I also enjoy the potential storyline of Fitzpatrick becoming a starting Quarterback for every team in the AFC East during his career.
Scenario 5: The Homecoming
This is the most intriguing scenario to me, but it’s also the most reliant on another team dealing with Belichick. This would move past the UFA types of Fitzpatrick, Dalton, and Mariota for me and look to the next step up of Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz, and possible dark horse candidates in Derek Carr or Jameis Winston.
As it’s been said numerous times already, trading for Carson Wentz and his contract isn’t all that difficult to take on. Considering the cap space for New England, this would easily be something they could manage and not knee-cap the rest of their team. I know many people are very split on the outlook for Wentz’s career, but he has shown his flashes enough to make me believe if he were to find a capable coaching staff for him, he could more consistently reach those heights once again. But, with Doug Pederson recently being fired, it seems as though Wentz’s status in Philadelphia is back up in the air.
The second player here is our very own Jimmy Garoppolo. Talk about a career arc if that happened. Acquiring Jimmy G would come one of two ways, through trade or if John Lynch decides to move on and just cuts him with an extremely team-friendly dead cap hit. Trying to speculate exactly which happens is obviously a fool’s errand, but there have been grumblings about San Francisco moving on from Jimmy for over a year now, so it certainly feels within the realm of possibilities. Either of these Quarterback signings would leave room for New England to focus on adding offensive weapons through free agency and the pick at #15. Jimmy G is still my leading candidate to take on the starting role in New England in 2021.
Conclusion
No matter which scenario unfolds, the New England Patriots will get impact players back from their COVID opt-outs, they will have a chip on their shoulder as the coach and team are not used to losing, and they have approximately $60 million to play with in cap room.
Bill Belichick is not really known for the splashy and over-the-top free agent signings, but we also haven’t had a season like this in 20 years. He will have the desire and the money to get back to their winning ways, so nothing is out of the realm of possibilities. All we can do now is sit back and wait.
2021 NFL Rookie QB Preview | Late Round Fliers
Welcome to The Undroppables’ latest series of posts previewing the 2021 QB draft class. The 2021 draft could offer an abundance of talent at the position similar to the 2018 class, which saw four quarterbacks drafted in the top ten and five in the first round. In each post, I will cover a tier of 2021 QB prospects, starting with the Best of the Best and working our way through the sleepers and potential career backups.
Specifically, this post will cover the quarterbacks who likely won’t have a shot at becoming NFL starters unless they greatly improve or are put in due to an injury. This is the second-to-last installment of these articles, with the last covering the quarterbacks who may have been forgotten about over the past year. Note that the QBs covered in this installment are not necessarily better than those forgotten prospects.
Kellen Mond – Texas A&M
Kellen Mond left high school as a high four-star prospect, and the 3rd ranked dual-threat QB in the 2017 class. Mond chose Texas A&M, and entered his freshman season as the backup to incumbent QB Nick Starkel. However, the first game of the season saw Starkel go down with an injury. Mond filled in for Starkel over the first ten games of the season and played well, but was not asked to do very much for the run-first Aggies in the passing game.
As Mond’s sophomore season approached, Head Coach Kevin Sumlin was fired from the Aggies, and A&M brought in Jimbo Fisher to lead the program. During spring camp and leading up to the season, there was a long-winded QB battle between Mond and Starkel for the starting job. However, Fisher chose Mond as his starting QB and hasn’t looked back, as Mond has started all 33 games that A&M has played since.
Mond passed for 2,282 yards while throwing 19 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions in 2020, and was able to lead Texas A&M to a 9-1 season with their lone loss to eventual national champion, Alabama.
Strengths
Mond never plays like he’s in trouble. He stays under control and doesn’t make poor decisions with the ball, even when under pressure. Along with this, Mond has a relatively fast release and uses it efficiently to attack the shorter areas of the field. His release is coupled with above-average arm strength, but his arm mechanics are lacking. Because of this, there is a whole other level to Mond’s game that could be unlocked in which he would likely become a better touch passer and be able to place the ball more accurately.
Mond also showcased a propensity to make plays on the ground during his time at A&M. Despite lacking elite athleticism, Mond can make plays with his feet and escape out of the pocket. He is a tough runner, but lacks the ability to make defenders miss in the run game. Along with this, Mond possesses great ability to throw on the run after he escapes the pocket.
Weaknesses
Mond has had a very inconsistent career, sometimes even looking like a different quarterback comparing one drive to the next. Overall, Mond’s largest pitfalls are in the accuracy department. His career completion percentage is 59% and his highest mark in a single season is only 63.3%. Fortunately, Mond has consistently improved in this area over his time at A&M, with his completion percentage and interceptions per attempt improving in all of his four seasons as the starter.
Another worry with Mond is his lack of processing the field. Most of Mond’s reads were limited to just one side of the field while in college. This worked well for A&M most of the time, but it likely will not get the job done in the NFL. Overall, I see Mond as a middle-round pick in the NFL draft, with teams eyeing him as a backup with the physical traits to become a starter if coached well.
My Grade: C // Projected Draft Capital: 3rd-5th Round
Sam Ehlinger – Texas
Sam Ehlinger played high school football at Westlake High School in Austin, Texas, the same high school where two current NFL QBs (Drew Brees and Nick Foles) played. Ehlinger graduated high school having broken their career records for both passing touchdowns and passing yards, leading to most recruiting sites listing him as a 4-star recruit. After choosing to attend his hometown team of Texas, Ehlinger was faced with an uphill battle for the starting job against incumbent starter Shane Buechele. However, with Buechele suffering a few injuries and Ehlinger playing well in his stead, Ehlinger was able to separate himself from Buechele in the 2018 season. Buechele transferred to SMU prior to the 2019 season and Ehlinger was left with the starting job locked down.
Ehlinger put together his best statistical season in 2019, throwing for 3,663 yards and 32 touchdowns while completing 65.2% of his passes. Meanwhile, the young QB also ran for 663 yards and 7 touchdowns. Unfortunately, Ehlinger was unable to continue his great play in 2020. Ehlinger’s completion percentage dropped to 60.2% and his rushing production lowered, but he was still able to finish his season with a 7-3 record.
Strengths
Sam Ehlinger reminds me of Baker Mayfield or Tim Tebow in his confidence (almost cockiness) on the football field. Ehlinger plays like he thinks he can do anything on the field, and he often delivers on that confidence. His energy, confidence, and leadership are likely his best traits and can help him contribute to the team’s confidence if called upon as a starter in the NFL.
This is not to say that Ehlinger doesn’t have the physical and mental traits to succeed on the football field. He makes his passes with good anticipation and puts the ball where his receivers can gain more yards after the catch. He uses his arm mechanics to create a quick release, and he has worked to improve his arm strength throughout his college career. In addition, Ehlinger uses his legs well and is good in the scramble drill for the most part.
Weaknesses
While Ehlinger looks good rushing on tape, it’s a byproduct of one of his biggest weaknesses in translating to the NFL game. First off, Ehlinger looks to leave the pocket far too often and doesn’t seem to understand how to work the pocket effectively. He often holds onto the ball far too long, which can result in broken plays and sacks. Along with this, Ehlinger lacks the requisite arm strength to succeed at the NFL level, even though he has improved in that area over the past season. Ehlinger appears to be yet another athletic, short-passing QB who can succeed in the college game, but lacks the skills to succeed in the pro game.
Overall, Ehlinger doesn’t strike me as a future starter, but if a coach is crazy enough, he could be used as a Taysom Hill/Easton Stick/Chris Streveler-type gadget player. He would likely not see the same success as Taysom Hill, but such a switch could help him stay in the league longer.
My Grade: D // Projected Draft Capital: 5th-7th Round
Make sure to follow Kyle on Twitter @KL_Fantasy, and be on the lookout for the subsequent tiers of rookie QBs throughout this week and the next. You can find the previous tiers–The Elite, The Very Good, and The Late Firsts–at the corresponding links.
The Undrafted | Tamorrion Terry Take-Off
This week on “The Undrafted”, a fantasy football podcast focusing on dynasty game theory, Scott brings on guest Felix Sharpe (@SharpeReview). The guys walk you through a whole host of 2021 prospects that you need to know as you prep for those next breakout rookies. Felix Sharpe brings his devy knowledge while Jax serves him up a handful of guys you need to take note of both early and late in your drafts. Tune in or be tuned out.
Running Back Report Card (Fantasy Football 2021)
Zero RB vs. Robust RB
For most of the 2020 Fantasy Football season, I had the phrase, “Zero RB Stan” proudly placed in my Twitter Bio. It gave me a sense of being contrarian to the Fantasy Football consensus. The market doubled down on the importance of getting Running Backs early, as there were only so many with legitimate bell cow opportunities; backfields all to themselves.
Maybe if I went the opposite route, I could take advantage of some discrepancies in the market that would catapult me to a Championship. We are, after all, looking for every advantage we can get.
I was happy to see my fellow Undroppable Brian O’Connell, aka @BpoFSU write up a defense of Zero RB and why the strategy actually worked. He got a lot of flak on Twitter when he first brought up the conversation, and his article defending the position further addresses the gripes of his testosterone-filled detractors.
Scarcity is why zero RB truthers are operating on a fallacy.
— Bo McBrayer (@Bo_McBigTime) November 30, 2020
I don’t believe Brian’s article completely satisfied any of the Zero RB haters out there. Noted Friend of the Brand @Bo_McBigTime pointed out the scarcity at running back is exactly why “Robust RB” even became a thing. But just because there’s scarcity at a position does not mean we should over-invest in players that are more likely to be inefficient in their team’s offense or older backs who could easily cede work to a rising rookie.
The Running Back Report Card
With the Running Back Report Card, my goal is to take a deeper look at how running backs were ranked to start the season, how those rankings compare to end-of-season results, and what takeaways we can glean from the position to apply to 2021.
For this highly scientific analysis, I pulled together a list of ESPN’s PPR Fantasy Football Rankings for running back, (as of September 4, 2020) a list of 2020 season-end running back rankings based on Half-PPR* points per game (PPG), and their corresponding PPG.
I also made a note of how many “ceiling games” and how many “floor games” each running back had through the season to give us a better sense of how the running backs actually performed in your lineup. A ceiling game in this exercise is defined as any game where the running back scored 20 or more Half-PPR points, and a floor game is defined as any game where the running back scored less than 10 Half-PPR points in a game.
These tiers, created in part by my friend @SamHoppen, are really defined based on feel. You LOVED Jonathan Taylor any time he got you 20+ points in your lineup, and you were probably trashing him (or the Colts coaching staff) any time he got you <10. If a player in your lineup scores fewer than 10 points in a week, you’re gonna have a bad time.
*I realize the PPR pre-season rankings won’t be 100% apples to apples with the Half-PPR scoring I used for season-end, but I chose Half-PPR scoring as a way to balance out RB scoring and give a more holistic picture. I pulled the ESPN rankings simply to get a sense of the pre-season consensus on the position.
Gold Stars
These are the Grade-A running backs who, based on their 2020 performances alone, should be considered RB1 candidates in the early rounds:
| RB | ESPN Rank | HPPR Ranking (PPG) | HPPR PPG | Ceiling Games | Bust Games |
| Christian McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 27.3 | 3 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 2 | 22.6 | 8 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 3 | 22.4 | 6 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 6 | 4 | 20.2 | 6 | 4 |
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 5 | 16.8 | 3 | 2 |
| Nick Chubb | 10 | 6 | 16.6 | 4 | 2 |
| James Robinson | N/A | 7 | 16.1 | 3 | 2 |
| David Montgomery | 28 | 8 | 15.9 | 6 | 5 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 9 | 15.7 | 3 | 4 |
This is the complete list of running backs that averaged over 15 Half-PPR points per game. You’ll notice each of them amassed at least 3 ceiling games across the season. Situation and context of their success will influence ADP positively (Taylor) or negatively (Montgomery), but this is the initial group you’re evaluating for your “Robust RB” or “Modified Zero RB” team build.
B+ Bust Candidates
Below is the grouping of running backs just after the #Elite tier that averaged between 15 and 12 HPPR PPG. If you are a Robust RB truther, you’ll be hard pressed to let some of these players pass you by on the draft board, when in reality only a few of these guys will even sniff RB1 territory. Identifying which of these players still have upside and which are 2021 landmines is vital to your draft strategy. If you miss on your top picks from this tier, don’t settle for the next best back just because you were targeting the position.
| RB | ESPN Rank | HPPR Ranking (PPG) | HPPR PPG | Ceiling Games | Bust Games |
| Joe Mixon | 9 | 10 | 14.8 | 1 | 2 |
| Myles Gaskin | N/A | 11 | 14.4 | 1 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 12 | 14.3 | 4 | 6 |
| Chris Carson | 15 | 13 | 14.1 | 2 | 5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 14 | 13.8 | 1 | 4 |
| David Johnson | 16 | 16 | 13.6 | 1 | 2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 17 | 13.2 | 2 | 6 |
| Antonio Gibson | 29 | 17 | 13.2 | 3 | 6 |
| Miles Sanders | 12 | 19 | 13 | 2 | 5 |
| D’Andre Swift | 27 | 20 | 12.8 | 3 | 5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 22 | 21 | 12.5 | 2 | 7 |
| Ronald Jones II | 37 | 22 | 12.3 | 2 | 6 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | N/A | 22 | 12.3 | 4 | 6 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 7 | 24 | 12.2 | 1 | 4 |
| Melvin Gordon III | 17 | 24 | 12.2 | 2 | 6 |
| Kenyan Drake | 11 | 26 | 12 | 2 | 6 |
While Ezekiel Elliott is the most likely to bounce back with a healthy Dak Prescott at the helm of the Cowboys offense, I also really like D’Andre Swift’s upside for next year. Josh Jacobs will certainly be an interesting player to evaluate, as we may have to factor in a multi-game suspension for his 2021 season.
D+ … Oh My God, I PASSED!
Here’s the group of RBs that managed between 12 and 10 PPG on the season…
| RB | ESPN Rank | HPPR Ranking (PPG) | HPPR PPG | Ceiling Games | Bust Games |
| Mike Davis | N/A | 27 | 11.8 | 2 | 7 |
| Raheem Mostert | 25 | 28 | 11.5 | 1 | 5 |
| James Conner | 19 | 29 | 11.3 | 1 | 4 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 34 | 30 | 10.6 | 1 | 7 |
| Salvon Ahmed | N/A | 30 | 10.6 | 1 | 3 |
| Nyheim Hines | 50 | 32 | 10.1 | 2 | N/A |
| Todd Gurley II | 20 | 33 | 10 | 2 | 8 |
Some had injury concerns, others were waiver wire wonders, but Todd Gurley and James Conner fetched considerable draft capital. If you invested in either of these two, you might feel a little like Thomas “Tommy” Callahan III stuck on a sailboat. If there are any takeaways from this grouping, it’s that 1) Gurley & Conner are likely undraftable for me in 2021, and 2) Nyheim Hines and Salvon Ahmed are interesting late-round sleepers. I’ll have to check on that with my guy Paulie later in the offseason.
Press ‘F’ to Pay Respects
My biggest takeaway from this exercise was that almost every running back outside of the preseason Top 40 was nearly worthless. Not including unranked players, (aka the waiver wire wonders) five running backs from pre-season RB38 to RB56 recorded at least one ceiling game: Latavius Murray, Zack Moss, Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, and Nyheim Hines. These five running backs combined for eight ceiling games, the same number that Dalvin Cook logged on his own.
While part of this section is to point out my hatred for how deep Fantasy rankings go in general, it’s also worth noting most “Zero RB” targets in drafts never get the opportunity we hope they can earn, because the starter in front of them never gets injured or the backfield wasn’t as ambiguous as we assumed. Even when they do get the opportunity to be the bell cow, we often learn the backups are the backups for a reason. They are replacement-level options, not direct replacements of the top options.
This is not to say we shouldn’t take shots on running backs in the late rounds, but rather we need to make sure in a Zero RB team build that we don’t get complacent with drafting just anyone and hold onto them for too long. The waiver wire option with the quicker path to opportunity is likely the better option to take a shot on.
Concluding Thoughts
I don’t profess to be an analytical expert when it comes to Fantasy Football, but I do think taking high-level view of the landscape of each position can teach us a lot, especially if we look at both a season-long and a week-to-week perspective. Much like Ben Wyatt preaches while playing Cones of Dunshire in Parks and Recreation, we must not forget about the ESSENCE of Fantasy Football: It’s about the points.
If you enjoyed this article, please let me know on Twitter, @AndrewMackens. As the Editor-in-Chief of the site, I love hearing feedback (positive and negative) so I and everyone else at The Undroppables can get better. Thanks for stopping by!