This week on “The Undrafted”, a fantasy football podcast focusing on dynasty game theory, Scott(@DynoGameTheory) brings back Marc Mathyk (@MasterJune70). The guys spend the first half of the pod talking about Eagles wk 17 drama, playoff betting breakdowns, and Marc’s youthfulness. Then the podcast jumps in full force into the 2021 offseason and top draft prospects to familiarize yourself with this offseason. Tune in, or be tuned out.
2021 NFL Rookie QB Preview | The Late Firsts
Welcome to The Undroppables’ latest series of posts previewing the 2021 QB draft class. The 2021 draft could offer an abundance of talent at the position similar to the 2018 class, which saw four quarterbacks drafted in the top ten and five in the first round. In each post, I will cover a tier of 2021 QB prospects, starting with the Best of the Best and working our way through the sleepers and potential career backups.
Specifically, this post will cover the 3rd tier of QB talent in this upcoming draft. These prospects are considered possible starters in their rookie season and will likely be mid-to-late first round picks.
Kyle Trask – Florida
Kyle Trask didn’t start a single game at quarterback for five years between his sophomore year of high school and his junior year of college, as he attended the same high school as University of Miami QB, D’Eriq King. After his high school career, Florida was the only Power Five school that offered a scholarship to the 3-star Pro-Style recruit.
Trask saw his first two seasons at UF riddled with injuries, and he was unable to compete for the starting QB job. However, once healthy in 2019, Trask was given the opportunity to step up after former Florida starter Feleipe Franks was injured. Trask played the final 10 games of the 2019 season, winning 8 of those 10 and capping his season off with a 36-28 win over Virginia in the Orange Bowl.
After Trask’s 2019 performance, Franks transferred to Arkansas and Trask was the obvious starter going into 2020. Trask proved his worth right off the bat in 2020, passing for 416 yards and 6 touchdowns in Florida’s first game of the season against Ole Miss. Afterward, Trask continued to play out of his mind, becoming the first QB in SEC history to pass for 4 touchdowns in 5 straight games while leading the Gators to an 8-4 season, including an SEC Championship berth. For his efforts, Trask was named a Heisman finalist for the 2020 season.
Strengths
I was able to watch Trask’s most recent game against Tennessee in person. I was impressed with his ability to look off defenders and make safeties go opposite of where he wants to deliver the ball. He gets the ball out quickly once he decides where he wants to place it, and he doesn’t have wasted motion in his throws. Currently, he sees most of his success in the Gators offense by delivering short throws on-time and on-schedule, but he can also hit receivers deep down the sides of the field on back-shoulder throws.
Weaknesses
There are obvious questions about Trask’s ability and why he wasn’t able to win the starting job from quarterbacks like D’Eriq King and Feleipe Franks, who will both be afterthoughts in the coming draft. He made some obvious rookie mistakes in his first season as a starter as one would expect, but he needs to clean these up if he wants to be successful in the NFL. This includes poor leg mechanics where he wasn’t stepping into his throws. These issues have been cleaned up a little during the 2020 season, but they still show up now and then.
Without spectacular arm talent, mechanical issues are extremely visible and can lead to his passes not having enough zip, dropping before they reach their targets. As a below-average athlete, Trask leaves a lot to be desired when he leaves the pocket, which could significantly hinder him in a league where dual-threat QBs are becoming increasingly prevalent. Lastly, he sometimes tries too hard to freeze safeties or carry them away with his eyes, and he can miss receivers who are wide open near the edges of the field.
My Grade: B // Projected Draft Pick: Late 1st/Early 2nd Round Pick
Mac Jones – Alabama
Mac Jones has been at the University of Alabama since 2017, but mostly saw the field as a field goal holder until last season. However, Jones appeared on astute Alabama fans’ radars before his freshman season in the team’s A-Day game, an exhibition that Alabama plays against themselves at the end of Spring Training. In Jones’ freshman A-Day game, he threw for 289 yards and 2 TDs while winning A-Day MVP.
Jones was finally given a chance to start for the Crimson Tide in 2019, after Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season-ending injury. Jones started the final three games, including a win over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. Including mop-up duty and a couple of games where Jones came in to relieve Tua after injury, Jones finished the 2019 season with 1,503 passing yards, a 68.8% completion percentage, a 14:3 TD to INT ratio, and a 186.6 passing efficiency rating.
In 2020, Jones has proven that he wasn’t just lucky in those three games. Jones passed for 36 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions while leading Alabama to a thus-far undefeated season and a National Championship berth. Along with Trask, Mac Jones is also a Heisman Trophy finalist.
Strengths
Mac Jones has a ridiculous 77% completion percentage on the year, which is often impossible without finding most of your success in the short passing game. However, Jones is averaging 11.3 yards per attempt, and while a portion of that can be contributed to Alabama’s amazing receiving core, Jones consistently hits them on deep routes and puts the ball where they can run on shorter routes. Similar to Trask, Jones can freeze defenders to open up his receivers, but Jones is even better than Trask at moving through his progressions.
Overall, Jones consistently makes good decisions with the ball, finding open receivers and hitting them in stride. He can further develop to become a deadly passer at the next level and could have success similar to some of the older, less athletic pocket passers in the NFL like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger.
Weaknesses
Jones profiles as a pocket passer, as he lacks the athleticism to make plays on the ground. The way the NFL is moving, Jones will have to be elite as a passer since he doesn’t have that athleticism. However, there are a few hurdles between him and being an elite pocket passer.
I hate to knock on guys for playing with other talents, but Jones has had a stable of wideouts at Alabama that would make a large number of NFL teams jealous. He likely won’t have that luxury at the next level and will need to compensate by being more accurate and throwing receivers open.
Jones lacks the elite arm talent that scouts love to see. He can still have a good career without arm talent, but he will need to get even better with his anticipation and timing. Overall, I really like Jones and it’s surprisingly difficult to find weaknesses in his passing game.
My Grade: B+ // Projected Draft Pick: Late 1st/Early 2nd Round Pick
Make sure to follow Kyle on Twitter @KL_Fantasy, and be on the lookout for the subsequent tiers of rookie QBs throughout this week and the next. You can find the previous tiers–The Elite and The Very Good–at the corresponding links.
2021 NFL Rookie QB Preview | The Very Good
Welcome to The Undroppables’ latest series of posts previewing the 2021 QB draft class. The 2021 draft could offer an abundance of talent at the position similar to the 2018 class, which saw four quarterbacks drafted in the top ten and five in the first round. In each post, I will cover a tier of 2021 QB prospects, starting with the best of the best and working our way through the sleepers and potential career backups.
Specifically, this post will cover the 2nd tier of QB talent in this upcoming draft. These prospects are considered likely starters in their rookie season; however, they don’t have the same pedigree as the elite prospects discussed in the last article.
Zach Wilson – Brigham Young
Wilson committed to BYU as a three-star quarterback from Draper, Utah. In his true freshman season, Wilson became the youngest QB to ever record a start for the Cougars and led the team to a 4-3 record, including a win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, in which Wilson won the MVP award.
Wilson’s sophomore season was hampered by injuries, but he played fairly well when healthy. Similar to QBs like Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray, Wilson was off the NFL radar prior to this season, but has skyrocketed into the top QB discussion. In 2020, Wilson led the Cougars to an 11-1 season and completed 73.4% of his passes en route to a 196.6 passer efficiency rating this year. The Junior has emerged as an elite QB prospect in this class.
Strengths
Wilson can make throws from practically any platform and any arm angle, sometimes looking like a shortstop turning a double play. Wilson has a lot of power on his throws, and complements that with impressive accuracy as well. Wilson’s footwork allows him to make a good base for his throws even when on the move, which is incredibly helpful as Wilson loves to use his legs to create space against defenses. Wilson was largely used as a rusher early in his college career before BYU opened up the passing game for him in 2020.
Weaknesses
Unfortunately, Wilson has had surgery on both his throwing shoulder and throwing hand in the past. These injury concerns could carry over into the NFL, but team doctors will be paying extra attention to his arm during the pre-draft process. On the field, Wilson’s athleticism sometimes leads him to try to do too much rather than checking down, which can lead to mistakes as he is trying to do too much. Wilson also has a small tendency to step too far into tight-window throws and leave his back foot behind him rather than bringing it forward as he should. However, mentally, Wilson possesses most of the tools NFL offenses need their QBs to have in order to succeed.
My Grade: A- // Projected Draft Capital: Top 5-10 Pick
Trey Lance – North Dakota State
As a member of the 2018 high school class, Trey Lance was a relative unknown as a three-star prospect, with only 7 scholarship offers listed on 24/7Sports. Most FBS schools who recruited Lance wanted him to switch positions, leading Lance to choose FCS powerhouse North Dakota State, where he could pursue his goals as a quarterback.
Lance redshirted behind current Chargers backup Easton Stick in his freshman season. However, Lance won the starting job in 2019 and set the FCS world on fire, finishing 16-0 and winning the FCS championship. With the FCS moving their season to Spring of 2021 rather than Fall of 2020, Lance decided to forego his Junior season in order to participate in NFL scouting events and prepare for the NFL draft. Because of this, practically all of Lance’s career stats were accumulated in one season as a starter.
Strengths
Lance is an electric runner, with 1,100 rushing yards on 6.5 yards per attempt in 2019. He shows off his rushing ability on both designed and undesigned run plays, and he possesses the wherewithal to know when he needs to leave the pocket in the pass game.
Lance is not one-dimensional, however. He has amazing ball placement on deep balls and effortlessly throws the ball downfield. He flashes great mechanics below the waist to set his feet and fire, something that some recent QBs like Josh Allen have struggled with. With his combination of arm power, quick release, and mechanics, he can make almost all the throws accurately and on time.
Weaknesses
I believe Lance can be the best Quarterback in the class if he gets the opportunity to play for a good coaching staff. However, the holes in his game will be pushed to the forefront if his NFL coaching staff doesn’t correct them. The offense Lance runs at NDSU will likely leave him unprepared for NFL progressions, as he usually falls back on his legs if his first or second reads are covered.
Furthermore, Lance needs to get better with his eyes in order to prevent NFL safeties from knowing where he is looking to go with the ball. Lastly, Lance’s mechanics sometimes go downhill as the games progress. This may be a conditioning issue or just mental errors. In the running game, Lance needs to learn when to slide to avoid hits. Even though he is a powerful runner and he can get yards after contact, taking these hits at an NFL level will likely shorten his career. Overall, Lance has notable issues in his game, but they seem like fixable issues at the next level.
My Grade: A- // Projected Draft Pick: Top 10-15 Pick
Make sure to follow Kyle on Twitter @KL_Fantasy, and be on the lookout for the subsequent tiers of rookie QBs throughout this week and the next.
Free Agent Stock Watch 2021 | Wide Receivers
With the 2020 NFL season limping to the finish line, it’s never too early to look at the best available players on the market, as their movement could signify big changes in the fantasy football world. Last year, it was mostly about the quarterbacks. This year there are some big-name Wide Receivers looking for new contracts and new homes. Let’s take a closer look and see if we can pin down where these prized pass catchers will call home in 2021 and beyond.
Allen Robinson
Robinson has been one of the few bright spots for the Bears since his arrival in Chicago. The talented receiver has amassed 253 receptions for 3,114 yards and 17 touchdowns in his three seasons on the Midway. Impressive numbers considering the quarterback company that he’s kept.
Earlier this year, it was rumored that Robinson was going to demand a trade from Chicago. Though no such demands were ever made, he did “like” a series of tweets from fans telling him to get out of the Windy City while he could. The veteran should have a number of suitors this spring, but with the uncertainty of the salary cap and the overall strength of the class, it might be in his best interests to smooth things over with the Bears. Especially if they topple the Packers Sunday and squeak their way into the playoffs.
Juju Smith-Schuster
The emergence of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool paired with the Steelers’ success at drafting wide receivers make it extremely unlikely WR JuJu Smith-Schuster returns to the Steel City. A free agent at just 24 years old, Smith-Schuster could have not one, but two 100+ reception seasons under his belt. One potential destination for the talented youngster is Las Vegas. There will be a gaping hole in their WR corps left by ManBearPig, (Nelson Agholor) and JuJu’s skills would fit right into the big slot role John Gruden covets. It would also get him back on the left coast, where he played his college ball.
Chris Godwin
Godwin broke out last year, notching 86 receptions for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns. All career highs, and after the Bucs signed Tom Brady, those numbers were expected to explode. Nagging injuries to his finger and hamstring along with a debilitating concussion caused him to miss several games. While his numbers took a hit, his talent did not.
There is growing interest on both sides to keep Godwin in Tampa. With Tom Brady on borrowed time, that might be enough to facilitate a new deal. They’re going to want to maximize their two years with Tom Terrific. If form follows function, the second year of Bruce Arians will be better than the first. Just another reason to keep Godwin around.
Kenny Golladay
Golladay has quickly become the forgotten man. A consensus top 10 WR on nearly every preseason list, his 2020 was beset by a hip injury that remains as mysterious as the real D.B. Cooper. His future could not be more murky. Did the Lions front office see enough of “Babytron” to extend the kind of offer it will take to keep him in Detroit? And if they did, would they even extend that offer? Chris Spielman is looking for a new head coach, and there are rumors that quarterback Matthew Stafford doesn’t want to go through another rebuild in the Motor City.
It would be a bitter pill for Lions fans to swallow, but Golladay would fit perfectly in a Green Bay offense devoid of downfield playmakers. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have done a lot of the heavy lifting at receiver, and with both set to leave town, that leaves a hole in the Packers aerial assault. Aaron Rodgers loves to take shots downfield, and they throw a lot inside the red zone. Both are areas that Golladay excels in.
Others
There are other pass catchers who could make an impact with new surroundings in 2021 and beyond. Corey Davis, Will Fuller, and Curtis Samuel are all talented young players who enjoyed the best of their careers in 2020. Samuel is a particularly intriguing option. He’s a tough kid who saw his touches increase as the season wore along. The Panthers lined him up everywhere, including the backfield.
Don’t forget veterans Sammy Watkins, T.Y. Hilton, and A.J. Green. Though they may have to wait their turn, they will all command attention. With so many options out there it makes this a true buyers market. That’s exceedingly true because this year’s wide receiver class looks stacked again.
Beer Money Bets | The Beginners Guide to NFL DFS
Hey y’all, I want to first apologize for abandoning this weekly article earlier this season. I had moved across the country and gotten a new job and I was unable to give this series the time I think it deserved. I moved out to Colorado where sports betting is legal, and I found myself drawn to prop bets more than DFS.
Ironically, playing through DraftKings Sportsbook, I found myself earning free DFS entries with a few of my bets. Using some of my strategies from earlier in the season, I cashed in every single one of these free contests I got. I quickly realized I learned some important things from my dive into DFS earlier this season, and I wanted to compile them into one last DFS article. So, here is my Beginner’s Guide to NFL DFS.
Getting Started:
- Find the contest that works best for you. For me, I started with cash games because they are “less risky”. I also started avoiding single-game “Showdowns” because they’re more variance based, and I struggled to account for this variance.I settled on the Sunday early and main slate classic contests, but that’s me. If you enjoy Showdowns, do them. Don’t enter a contest you don’t enjoy just because you want to play DFS; that’s an easy way to lose money.
- Salary is everything. Salary allocation is where the strategy of DFS comes from, so if you’re creating a lineup just based on projected points or another points-based metric, you’re doing it wrong. I found the most success when I divided projected points by salary to give me a “points per $1000” metric that I used to compare players.
- Make sure you’re on top of the most recent news. DraftKings and FanDuel have extensive formulas to determine salaries and a lot of thought and effort go into the prices. Because of this, initial salaries for the week are meticulously made, but they do not change throughout the week.Again,they do not change once they’re out. This means that the perfect lineup you set on Wednesday can be completely out of contention before the games even start.
- Betting lines matter, or more specifically expected points do. Expected points can be determined by taking half of the game’s total and adding half of the line for the favorite or subtracting half of the line for the underdog. More expected points = more points scored in the game = a higher likelihood of your player scoring fantasy points.
Strategy:
- Elite WR > everything else. This is the strategy I found most successful and continues to help me win money. I define elite wide receivers by those with the highest WOPR. WOPR stands for Weighted Opportunity Rating and is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards.I built my best lineups by combining WOPR with my projected points per $1000 metric, choosing the top 3 wide receivers, and building my lineup from there.
- Use expected points from betting lines to find values at RB and QB. You want players that are more likely to score touchdowns, and expected points derived from betting lines is an easy way to figure this out.
- Do not spend a lot on a D/ST. On DraftKings, I always made sure my defense cost less than $3,500 and usually tried to make them even cheaper. I used expected points here again, usually looking at the cheapest 5-8 defenses and picking the team with the least amount of expected points against.
- There’s value at TE until there isn’t. This is another area where I found WOPR to be helpful. I almost always was able to find a player with a high WOPR and a cheap salary to fill my TE spot. I say almost always because some slates didn’t include those cheap tight ends and I found myself paying up for Travis Kelce a few times.
General DFS Advice:
- Look back and study your lineups after the week is over. DFS is a rapidly changing game and you will lose more times than not. It’s important that you learn from every loss. Sometimes, it’s just bad luck and variance. Other times there is a lesson you need to learn from your lineups.Earlier this season, I skipped on Davante Adams because I thought he was too expensive. That week, Davante Adams was pretty much required to cash after scoring 30+. I learned to never skip out on a WR just because I thought they were too expensive.
- You’re not as good at predicting game script as you think you are. Trying to predict game script is where some of my worst lineups came from. You can predict a game script to an extent, but do not make it the backbone of your lineup.
- Volume is king. Just as with seasonal fantasy football, you want the player that gets plenty of touches. Don’t get cute and try and predict an efficient player to continue to be efficient.
These are just some of the tenets I learned during my first year of DFS. I ended up finding an extremely successful and profitable strategy that can be found here. Thanks for following along this season, and you can continue to follow me on Twitter @BpoFSU. Hopefully this will help you earn some beer money!