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Beer Money Bets | NFL DFS Week 9

Brian O'Connell
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Beer Money Bets | NFL DFS Week 9

I had nothing to tilt about this last week as I did not play any serious lineups, but there are still plenty of results to dive into. Last week I looked into what a captain brings to your team and laid down some ideas about what type of players you want to select as your captain to be most successful. I entered into two free contests on DraftKings with these two different lineups to be able to easily track the difference between the two. I had split the idea into two different types of players you might want to captain. First, there is the argument for captaining a stud, which I defined as a player that is a top 3 projected points, and most likely top 3 salary too. Second, there’s the idea of captaining an overachiever. I defined this as a player that is a medium salary player that has a serious chance to overachieve, or score more than their projected points and salary. 

Last week, the Baltimore vs Steelers game provided a great test environment for this idea, as we had an obvious stud player in Lamar Jackson and an obvious overachiever in J.K. Dobbins. Here is how these to lineups faired:

PositionCaptain a StudPointsCaptain OverachieverPoints
CaptainLamar Jackson28.23J.K. Dobbins24.15
FLEXJ.K. Dobbins16.1Lamar Jackson18.82
FLEXMark Andrews6.2Mark Andrews6.2
FLEXJames Conner15James Conner15
FLEXDiontae Johnson1.6Diontae Johnson1.6
FLEXDevin Duvernay4.9Justin Tucker8
Total:72.0373.77

 

Lamar lived up to his stud price and J.K Dobbins overperformed, so it worked out exactly as I had hoped. Although the captain overachiever team scored more points, I think the captain a stud argument won here. This is because Dobbins wasn’t cheap enough that including him did not allow another top player to be included in the lineup. All I was able to do was add Justin Tucker, who admittedly I thought was a decent play, but still not a big addition to my lineup. There were also players like Devin Duvernay and Miles Boykin, that when sorted by projected points per salary, were obvious plays. Miles Boykin was only $200(!!!) and Duvernay was only $800, and these players could easily get 5+ points. Boykin got a touchdown and had a massive return on his $200. 

The lesson I learned here is to look at value plays first. When I mean value plays, I mean players that are like Boykin and Duvernay that are $1,500 or less. If there are players that you can count on for 5+ points, then it’s advantageous to play a stud at Captain. If these types of value players are not available, then captaining an overachiever might be more advantageous. 

New Process for Showdown Double Ups:

I am still cautiously proceeding with my showdown strategy, but now that I have a slightly better feel about the captain position, I believe I am ready to tackle the whole lineup. I have some crazy math ideas I am going to throw in and see if anything sticks, so follow along with this completely new process:

  1. To select a captain, look at players below $1,500. If there is a player that is easily projected 5+ points, captain a stud. If there is not, look for a player in the $4,000-$6,000 range that has a serious chance to outperform their projected points and select that player as captain.
  2. ***Crazy Math Warning*** Take all projected points and put them to the 1.1 power (This will add a little weight to the higher projected players). Divide these values by the player’s salary (I’d suggest multiplying it by 1000 to make it a readable number). Sort these values from highest to lowest and use this to select players. 
  3. Move down the list for these values and place them in order in your lineup. If a player cannot be afforded, skip it and move down until you can find the next player that fits. 

The Process in Action:

Admittedly, this process sounds kind of crazy and too straight forward to work, but hey, it’s worth trying. It is set up on the foundation of projected points, which do a good job of incorporating a lot of variables. This process also weighs players with projected points more heavily, so there is some method behind the madness. Here is the process in action for the Seattle vs Buffalo game:

  1. No player below $1,500 has a projection above 5 points so I look to find an mid-priced overachiever as captain. I see John Brown sitting there at $5,400 and he looks ideal to score more than the 10 points I have him projected for. It is also worth noting that John Brown is still coming off an injury so there is a slight discount to be had because of that too.
  2. After doing my crazy math and putting all projected points to the 1.1 power, I come up with a list of values that has Stefon Diggs, DeeJay Dallas, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, John Brown, and Tyler Lockett at the top. 
  3. As I put these players in, I do not run out of salary until I get to Lockett as my last player. I have $1,900 left and have to go deep down the list all the way to Will Dissly to find a player that fits my salary restraints. 
PositionPlayerProjected PointsSalary
CaptainJohn Brown17.28,100
FLEXStefon Diggs21.89,800
FLEXDeeJay Dallas15.27,000
FLEXJosh Allen21.011,000
FLEXRussell Wilson23.112,200
FLEXWill Dissly4.11,800
Total102.449,900

 

I am not entirely sure how well this process will work, so to test it I am placing it in a 10 cent tournament. I know this goes against the cash games process in this series, but I want to see a cheap but competitive way to test this process. Don’t forget to check back at the Week 7 article to see my first finished process, and good luck this week! If you have any questions, you can always find me on twitter @bpofsu. Also, for all of your DFS needs, check out Paulie’s DFS Sleepers and Michael Reedy’s Money Makers and Heart Breakers here at the Undroppables. 

Respect the Flex (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 9)

Kayne Rob
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Respect the Flex (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 9)

Welcome to The Undroppables weekly “Flex” play article, bringing you the flex suggestions for your league. As stated in previous articles, this article is written to help with difficult start options. If you boast a very strong team full of star caliber players, do not overthink it and switch out your guys. Lock in your studs and go with the safe points. For those not as lucky, we got you covered.

Our consensus panel now boasts a record of 20-8-2 (2 coming from postponed games) after Week 8. Ahead to Week 9. To send your questions for future weeks, you can tag me @KayneRob on Twitter.

Let’s get to it!

Flex Plays of the Week

Shallow League Flex Plays (10 or fewer teams)

D.J. Moore @ Kansas City Chiefs

This play may be slightly worrisome after his last game but the return of CMC should help free up some opportunities and coverage on the DJM side of things. The Panthers will need to pass to keep up with the high flying Chiefs offense, so I like both Carolina pass catchers, with Moore holding the most upside in my eyes. His connection with Teddy has been growing and it is encouraging moving forward.

Diontae Johnson @ Dallas Cowboys

I know that Diontae is having a difficult time staying on the field. That said, when he does manage to evade the injury monster, he is the clear WR1 on the team. He was able to play through being banged up last week, though mainly serving as a decoy. In Week 9 I think he will look to light it up against the pitiful Cowboys secondary. All Steelers options should be good plays in this match-up including Claypool, Conner, and Juju. Yet I believe Diontae sees the most opportunity and best production of the group.

Standard League Flex Plays (12 teams)

Mike Williams vs Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders opponents have put up 30+ points on 5 out 7 weeks thus far this season. The other two weeks their opponent put up 24 points and the other was only 6 in a terrible weather game last week. High scoring paired with the growing connection between Herbert & Williams spells for a very solid flex play.

Antonio Brown vs New Orleans Saints

This is assuming that Chris Godwin misses Week 9 since he has yet to catch a ball since his finger surgery. With targets available and Tom Brady seeking out AB, I would not be surprised for a solid first week together. Their only game of football together in 2019 lead to 8 targets and 14 fantasy points (in half ppr). I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar outing.

Deeper League Flex Plays (14 or more teams)

Quintez Cephus @ Minnesota Vikings

Qunitez is the Kenny Golladay replacement, simple as that. His snaps are only high when Golladay is out. Well Kenny G is out this week, so I have a real sense of comfortability in firing up Cephus in deeper leagues. Pair that with the weak secondary that Minnesota possesses and you could have a real breakout from a player with a low rostership percentage.

Preston Williams @ Arizona Cardinals

Less competition should only help Preston’s cause. Also taking a look at the numbers from Tua’s 1st start, you will see that Preston lead the receiver core in targets. This is definitely something to keep an eye on moving forward. The Dolphins will likely need to pass the ball a good deal to keep up with the high flying Cardinals so this could be a solid flex play if the connection does start to develop.

Boom or Bust Flex Plays

Cole Beasley vs Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks consistently give up some of the most points to the WR position. Diggs will get his points but the Allen/Beasley connection seems to be thriving many weeks as well. With opportunities being in this prime matchup I would definitely feel more comfortable with Beasley this week as compared to normal. That said he does have a lower floor like we saw in week 8.

Sterling Shepard @ Washington Football Team

Two weeks back and two solid outputs with 8 & 10 targets respectively. That has led all WRs in both weeks. Also Daniel Jones has had some success vs Washington in his career so I like Sterling to be on the plus side of his production.

Tim Patrick @ Atlanta Falcons

Tim Patrick has had a great connection with Lock but he was unable to play in their last game. It looks as though he is trending in the right direction for week 9 and if he is available I would play him vs the Atlanta Falcons. He is in the boom/bust category due to returning from injury yet the upside is great if healthy.

The Undroppables Survey Says

Typically we go back to the Twittersphere asking for your toughest flex questions. With the election taking place and other stressors of the week responses were low; so we are considering this our “bye week”. We will be ready to go hard and get back to the grind in week 10!

In Summary

To be featured and get your flex questions answered each week feel free to tag or DM @KayneRob throughout the week. For last-minute game day decisions, check out “Under the Wire” Sunday mornings leading up to kickoff on the Fantasy Football Chat Discord.

Under Review | Jonathan Taylor

Tommy Mo
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Under Review | Jonathan Taylor

While everyone hates on Jonathan Taylor right now, calling him a bust. I examine his week 8 performance and how his blocking failed him. He may have had a hurt ankle but when you have no where to run, you’re gonna hurt an ankle. His offensive line is good, but they played bad this game and I go through each carry to show you why. And also why he’s been successful in other games. It takes a team to win and blocking for a RB to have success.

Money Makers and Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 9)

Michael Reedy
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Money Makers and Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 9)

Before we get into the Money Makers and Heart Breakers for Week 9, I want to say I know this has been a tough week.  Election stress, players getting hurt, other players out with COVID-19, and just a myriad of strangeness to ensure we will never forget the year 2020. With that in mind, I advise you to be kind. Simply be kind to others. If we can all do that, the world will be a much nicer place to live.

With that go off and enjoy your day. I mean it, go make the most of it; we only live once.

If you are new around here this is how it works:

Money Maker – I think this person will perform well this week and be better than projections

Heart Breaker – These players will not meet projections

Quarterbacks

💰 Money Makers

Josh Allen – I know early in the season this guy was tearing it up.  The past few weeks, not so much.  You might think that means it’s time to pivot away from him.  I am here to tell you not to do that.  In Week 9, Allen plays the Seattle Seahawks.  You know, the same team that I mention here every week as a great play for quarterbacks going against them.  The Seahawks give up an average of 366 yards passing and multiple touchdowns per game to Quarterbacks.  You are playing Allen. ($8,200 on FanDuel and $7,000 on DraftKings)

Drew Lock – In Week 8, Lock threw for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns.  In Week 9, he’s facing the Falcons.  YES, those Falcons.  The second-friendliest defense for Quarterbacks to play Falcons.  Lock has a nice floor this week, and I would expect another 250 or so yards and multiple touchdowns.  ($7,200 on FanDuel and $5,200 on DraftKings)

Cam Newton – I know he’s been up and down, and I know it appears he has no one to pass to.  But I also know the Jets suck on defense.  Look for Cam to give you a good day via the air and a good day on the ground against the Jets seventh-worst defense.  If you were wondering when to potentially play Cam again, this is the week.

Other quarterbacks I like in Week 9:

There is the obvious: Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers

The not so obvious: Derek Carr, Justin Herbert, and Matt Ryan.

💔 Heart Breakers

Drew Brees – I had Brees here last week as well. He played this Tampa team early in the season and had 160 yards and 2 touchdowns against them. I would expect something similar this week. Nothing to get overly excited about playing Brees, unless you have no choice in Week 9.

Ryan Tannehill – So while I am saying to expect less from Tannehill, I will be honest and say I am not sitting him if he is my QB.  Tannehill has hit a tough part of his schedule, so I would beware in DFS.  He’s still probably good for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, Which is a nice floor.  Tannehill threw for 233 yards and 2 touchdowns last week.  In Week 9, he plays the Bears who give up roughly 240 yards and a touchdown per week.

Teddy Bridgewater – Teddy let us down last week against a not so great team.  This week Bridgewater is playing against the Chiefs.  People think that means he’ll be behind and throw a lot, but it appears that isn’t true.  Giving up only 213 yards and a touchdown per game the Chiefs are the 7th best defense against quarterbacks.  Odds are you can avoid playing Bridgewater this week, and you should.

Others quarterbacks to avoid: Ben DiNucci and Sam Darnold.

Running Backs

💰 Money Makers

David Johnson – Did you know that David Johnson has scored double digit fantasy points in all but one week this season?  He’s not the sexy, “Oh my god, I need that guy in my lineup” play at all, but he gets between 17 and 20 touches per game.  He’s active in both the run game and the passing game, and in Week 9 he’s playing against the Jaguars.  The last time he played the Jaguars, he totaled 103 yards combined and I would expect that to be his floor this week.  ($6,800 on FanDuel and $5,600 on DraftKings)

James Robinson – I’ll be honest with you, if I need to tell you to play him, you REALLY should be following me more on Twitter.  So WHY Mike are you writing him up then? Because this week he smashes, and I mean out-of-the-ballpark smashes.  Robinson is going against the Texans, who are the third-friendliest defense to running backs in the league.  They are going to invite him into the end zone this weekend, possibly multiple times.  ($7,300 on FanDuel and $7,000 on DraftKings)

Justin Jackson – Jackson is involved in both the running and passing game.  He had 89 yards on the ground last week and another 53 yards receiving.  This week he is playing the Raiders, and they are the fifth-easiest defense for running backs to score on.  ($5,900 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings)

Other running backs to play:

The obvious: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and Alvin Kamara

The not so obvious: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, David Montgomery, and Joshua Kelley

💔 Heart Breakers

Jonathan Taylor – The Colts are playing the Ravens this week, and the Ravens are really good against running backs.  If you have Taylor, you are probably playing him, but if you are looking at DFS, DO NOT PLAY Colts running backs.

Ezekiel Elliott – The Steelers show up in running back Heart Breakers a lot.  Not Steelers running backs, but the Steelers defense.  Since Dak Prescott got injured has not had 100 total yards in a game and has not score a touchdown.  That trend will continue this week against the Steelers and their stellar run defense.

Todd Gurley – Last week a Money Maker, this week a Heart Breaker, and thus is the story of Todd Gurley.  Denver is a top 10 defense against the run.  The Broncos give up roughly 94 yards per game to running backs on the ground and have only given up 3 touchdowns to the position on the season.

Other running backs that will cost you in Week 8: Ronald Jones and Devonta Freeman

Wide Receivers

💰 Money Makers

Stefon Diggs – Diggs had 6 receptions for 92 yards on a whopping 50% target share last week against the Patriots.  This week he is a nice play against the Seahawks, who everyone seems to be able to pass against. The Seahawks give up 269 yards per game and at least a touchdown per game to wide receivers. ($7,600 on FanDuel and $7,400 on DraftKings)

Allen Robinson – Do you know who else is pretty bad against the pass?  The Titans are. This week the Bears play the Titans.  Robinson has a very easy schedule the rest of the way, so you may want to make a move to obtain him as well.  Currently the WR11 on the season, plug Robinson in. ($6,900 on FanDuel and $6,900 on DraftKings)

Marvin Jones – The Lions play Vikings this week.  Kenny Golladay is out with an injury.  That means Marvin Jones will be the Lions #1 WR against the second friendliest defense for wide receivers in the league.  You can feel the love here.  The Vikings have given up 15 touchdowns in total to the position.  If Matthew Stafford is out with COVID, obviously this takes a hit. ($6,100 on FanDuel and $5,100 on DraftKings)

Other wide receivers to play:

The obvious: Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Tyler Lockett, Chris Godwin, and Tyreek Hill

The not so obvious:  – Darnell Mooney, Cole Beasley, Jerry Jeudy and John Brown

💔 Heart Breakers

Sterling Shepard – Last week Shepard had 10 targets, netting him 8 receptions and 74 yards.  But the best team against wide receivers in 2020 is the Washington Football Team.  The Giants play the Washington Football Team in Week 9.  Mix tough defense in with uncertainty around which Giants wideout will lead the team in targets this week, and it become an avoid situation.

A.J. Brown  – Brown has been very good this season.  Last week he save you with a touchdown.  This week he gets to play against the Bears  and their top 3 defense.  Not looking like a great week to play A.J. Brown in DFS.  If you have him in season long, you are probably playing him.

Robby Anderson – As stated above re: Bridgewater, the Chiefs are actually good against the pass.  The Chiefs give up an average of 128 yards per game to wide receivers and have only given up 5 touchdowns on the season to the position.  If you have other options you may want to try those out.

Other wide receivers that will cost you: Emmanuel Sanders, Henry Ruggs, and DeVante Parker

Tight Ends

💰 Money Makers

Noah Fant – Fant is healthy again, and he was targeted 9 times last week for 7 receptions and 47 yards, with 22% of the target share.  I like him.  I like him A LOT this week too, facing a Falcons defense that’s the worst against tight ends in the league. ($5,800 on FanDuel and $4,600 on DraftKings)

Rob Gronkowski – The Saints are the fourth-friendliest defense against tight ends. Gronk has scored in 3 straight games. Look for him to make that 4 straight. The Buccaneers will come out throwing and the you couldn’t ask for a better match for the duo of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to connect for yet another TD.

Other tight ends to play:

The obvious: Darren Waller, George Kittle, and Travis Kelce

The not so obvious: Robert Tonyan, Jonnu Smith, and T.J. Hockenson

💔 Heart Breakers

Mark Andrews  – Andrews has been up and down in the passing game this season.  The Colts have only allowed one tight end to have over 60 yards this season and have given up 0 touchdowns to the position.  It looks like a down week for Andrews.

Hayden Hurst  – Hurst has been more involved in the passing game lately with the Falcons, but the Broncos have not had a tight end get more than 50 yards against them this season.  They have only given up 2 touchdowns on the season to tight ends. It doesn’t look good this week.

Other tight ends that will cost you: Chris Herndon, Tyler Kroft, and Ross Dwelley

If you are looking for Defenses to stream, take a look at The Stream Option by Kyle Larson.

Thanks for checking out our Money Makers and Heart Breakers column. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter, follow @MikeReedyFF for more great content, and visit back for Mike’s weekly UNtangling the Wire (waiver wire) article.

League Winners (Fantasy Football 2020)

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League Winners (Fantasy Football 2020)

While yesterday was all about showing love to some Undroppable players through the first half of 2020, it’s just as important to secure whatever upside you can on your roster to make that playoff push. There are league winners just sitting out there on weak rosters and waiver wires, WAITING to be picked up by YOU, and I’m here to tell you who they are. Whether it’s the rookie finally getting their chance or a consistent performer getting their schedule to line up just right, here are a few guys I’d be making room on my roster for rest of season:

Justin Herbert

Say what you want about Anthony Lynn and the number of wins he’s coached, he’s letting his rookie QB sling the ball downfield, and it’s yielding impressive results. Since he started in relief of Tyrod Taylor in Week 2, Justin Herbert is averaging over 37 pass attempts per game and has only recorded one game under 21 fantasy points in 4-point passing TD scoring. On top of leading a pass-heavy offense, Herbert showed his rushing upside in Week 7 against the Jaguars, when he ran 9 times for 66 yards and a touchdown.

It might feel weird locking a rookie in as the starting QB in your redraft lineup, but combine his great balls (the ones he throws) with a super-friendly fantasy playoff schedule, (Falcons, Raiders, Broncos) and you’ll have a hard time prying him from anyone else’s roster. If he’s available on your waiver wire, pick him up NOW.

J.K. Dobbins

Let’s get to our cover man for the article, a guy who’s been primed to take over the Ravens backfield since Day 1. Hardcore fantasy analysts would love to have seen J.K. Dobbins get a healthy workload as soon as he stepped on the field, but that’s a hard thing to do when veteran Glue Guy Mark Ingram is standing in your way. The opportunity split in Baltimore was a nightmare before the Ravens’ bye week, but now that Ingram is dealing with a high ankle sprain, there are more carries to go around for Dobbins and his teammate Gus Edwards.

Dobbins may not steal Edwards’ workload from him overnight, but he’s been consistently involved in the pass game, (16 targets to Edwards’ 4 on the season) and he has greater big play ability (2 carries for 48 yards Week 2; 1 carry for 34 yards Week 5). It would be insane to me if John Harbaugh isn’t getting Dobbins involved early and often for the rest of the season.

Last nugget: Just today, “Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman told reporters that rookie RB J.K. Dobbins’ role ‘will evolve’ as the season goes on, which was always the plan.” Confirmation bias is a helluva drug.

Terry McLaurin

Despite catching balls from less-than-mediocre QBs for the first half of the season, Terry McLaurin has managed to be the WR16 in PPR thus far. Even better, his toughest cornerback matchups are behind him. Here’s the schedule for McLaurin going forward: Giants, Lions, Bengals, Cowboys, Steelers, 49ers, Seahawks, Panthers.

If a string of nearly complete green in the fantasy app matchup column doesn’t get you going, perhaps some advanced metrics from my friend Sam Hoppen will solidify the need for McLaurin on your roster…

If you click to zoom in on Sam’s charts below, you’ll find McLaurin in the top right of each table. McLaurin is dominating in the Washington passing game, and he’s not slowing down anytime soon. Pay up with some major name value (Ezekiel Elliot or Michael Thomas even) and grab McLaurin while you still can.

Allen Lazard

As much as I love to joke about the Packers not making big moves, the personnel side of the organization is telling us a lot by relying on what they have in their wide receiver room. They believe in Allen Lazard as the #2 WR in Matt LaFleur’s offense, and if Aaron Rodgers can maintain his “vintage” level of efficiency, there’s plenty of room for Lazard to produce as well.

Through 8 weeks of the NFL season, Lazard ranks as WR14 in PPR points per game with 17.4 (this is a three game sample size, but it’s what we have.) I would try to grab Lazard on the cheap before he returns to action, as he may no longer be available if an immediate return to form takes place in primetime. He is inactive for the Packers’ Thursday might matchup against the 49ers, so you have more time to make a move here.

Austin Hooper (?)

I’ll admit, this is a deep pull. I’ll even say I’ve been too nice to Austin Hooper since he found success in Atlanta and got paid afterwards. But if you’re a fantasy player who just lost George Kittle, and you haven’t been able to figure out who your replacement-level tight end savior is yet, Hooper still has a chance to be your answer.

Hooper looks to be back on the field for the Browns in Week 10. Before his absence, he saw 7, 10, and 6 targets in three consecutive weeks from Baker Mayfield, and this was all while Odell Beckham Jr. was still on the field. With the absence of OBJ, Mayfield needs consistent options in the passing game. Hooper built up chemistry with Mayfield in the offseason, so the Progressive gunslinger should look Hooper’s way often enough to make him at least a solid floor play.

That’s all of my league winners for now; if you want to bend my ear for more or have questions on how to acquire your own favorite league winner targets, hit me up on Twitter and we can chop it up in the mentions or the DMs.

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