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Unsung Heroes | Offensive & Defensive Line Matchups Week 8

Brad Wire
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Unsung Heroes | Offensive & Defensive Line Matchups Week 8

An unsung hero is someone who does great deeds, but gets little to no recognition for them. In football, the linemen who battle in the trenches are the unsung heroes that make the biggest impact on the game. In this weekly column, we shine a light on those unsung heroes and to help you make your lineup decisions. The offensive line advantage will be provided by Brad, with the defensive line advantage provided by Tommy Mo. Both also give their favorite matchups to look forward to for the week ahead.

Week 7 Recap

Offensive Side

The Falcons put up another Falcon-worthy performance on Sunday after showing a little hope in Week 6. Grady Jarrett was able to get a season high 4 QB hits, but was held to 2 total tackles (1 solo, 1 assisted). The Lions allowed 2 sacks on the day, both on the same drive to start the second half. The first of those sacks was a last-second blitz by Keanu Neal off a play action that D’Andre Swift couldn’t possibly have picked up. The second was a similar concept, just good play calls from the Falcons. D’Andre Swift’s longest run (24 yards) was called back due to a holding penalty.

I did not think the 49ers game would be that bad, nor that odd of a timeshare. I don’t know anyone that projected McKinnon for only 3 total touches, besides Kyle Shanahan. We saw more of what JaMycal Hasty can do, as both he and Jeff Wilson averaged over 6 YPC. This offensive line has shown steady improvements each week. The lone sack they gave up was a good defensive call on a power pull play action.

As for the Saints game, we saw both Kamara and Murray do work on the ground. Latavius Murray got vultured by Drew Brees after ripping off a 25 yard run earlier in the drive. That run would have given Murray a solid double digit performance. The Saints lone sack was a big one let up by James Hurst as it caused a turnover.

Defensive Side

Tommy Mo’s individual matchup of the week did not disappoint, as Jerry Hughes tallied a pair of sacks, a forced fumble, and snagged a pick to top it off. Mekhi Becton was not perfect in his return, but was far and away the best player on the Jets line. It seemed that Hughes stayed on the side opposite Becton for most of the contest. The Bills defense overall held the Jets to 10 total points, racking up 6 total sacks and 2 interceptions. Sam Darnold was held to just 120 TOTAL YARDS. What Adam Gase has done to the development of Sam Darnold is absolutely criminal.

Joe Burrow played one hell of a game for the Bengals. There’s not enough that you can say about this kid. Their beat up offensive line lost its best player in Jonah Williams, Joe Mixon, and faced one of the best pass rushers in the league. The Browns D-Line capitalized, racking up 4 sacks including a strip sack by Myles Garrett. Luckily Williams’ injury doesn’t seem to be too serious. He still might sit out Week 8 to get 2 weeks of rest with the Bengals bye in Week 9.

Offensive Line Advantage

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Remember Week 1? Pepperidge Farm remembers, and Aaron Rodgers does too. He wasn’t sacked once in their original matchup, and the Vikings just traded away Yannick Ngakoue for 60 cents on the dollar. Let’s just hope you’re not going against Davante Adams in fantasy this week. Onto the real heroes; David Bakhtiari should be back this week after being a late scratch in their Week 7 game. The fact that he had a shot to play in Week 7 is telling. Hopefully he’s able to get some form of practice in. Elgton Jenkins has been playing lights out the last few weeks and should have no problem continuing his dominance here. Like I mentioned about the 49ers, this group just continues to get better. Aside from the Buccaneers game, this group has been spectacular. It goes to show just how important depth is, and theirs is the best in the league.

Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions

The Lions defensive line is giving up 5.21 adj. line yards per carry, with only 8 sacks so far. This game should be absolutely dominated up front by the Colts. They should continue their dominance in pass protection, but with the bye week I expect to see drastic improvement in the run game. They remain locked into the #1 spot for me in the Offensive Line rankings for now. Start Jonathan Taylor no matter what this week.

Los Angeles Rams @ Miami Dolphins

Sean McVay has shown us he is going to use a RBBC this year that seemingly doesn’t feature Cam Akers. McVay is trying to win football games; he doesn’t care about our fantasy teams. Either way, the Rams have a juicy matchup with the Dolphins, who are giving up over 5 adj. line YPC, which is bottom 3 in the league. They have amassed 17 sacks on the year, however, led by Emmanuel Ogbah with 5. The Rams scheme allows for big running lanes leading to chunk yardage on the ground. Their heavy tendency for play action leads them to give up few sacks. Fire up your Rams this week and hope the Dolphins can keep this one competitive. Or not, and hope we see some Cam Akers garbage time touches.

Defensive Line Advantage

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

I know the Steelers offensive line is good, and I know they are really good at pass blocking (adjusted sack rate of 4.0%) but the Ravens just signed Yannick Ngakoue to pair with Calais Campbell, and now have two defensive ends that are top 12 in IDP fantasy points per FantasyPros. That’s like adding Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to your roster, but for defensive linemen. My brothers that battled in the trenches should appreciate that analogy.

The Ravens have an adjusted sack rate of 7.8%, (9th overall) so it will be a battle in the trenches between two good line units. I should really give the defensive advantage to the Steelers based on the numbers alone, as they are the #1 defense in yards given up, #1 rated run stopping defensive line, and #1 rated pass rushing defensive line. BUT, the Ravens are coming off a bye and are hungry for a win against a division rival. I fully expect Ngakoue and Campbell to tee off this weekend in a statement game.

Tampa Bay vs New York Giants

This is the choice matchup of the day. The Buccaneers are rated 3rd in overall pass rush with an adjusted sack rate of 10.2% and 25 sacks on the year, only behind the Steelers with 26. The Giants on the other hand are rated 19th overall in pass blocking and dead last in run blocking. On paper that’s a recipe for disaster. Tom Brady and company should have a great opportunity for a ton of fantasy points while managers of Giants players should avoid starting those players at all cost. Even my beloved Darius Slayton should be a sit this week.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

This is not a huge advantage to the Eagles defensive line, as the Cowboys continue to have a historically good (not great this year) offensive line. However, Brandon Graham is one of the best in the league and 3rd in sacks with 6 on the year. The Eagles are also 4th in pass rush and 3rd in rush defense, stuffing opposing RBs on 27% of plays (2nd in the league).

Dallas has been better run blocking (10th overall) than pass blocking (18th overall) this year. While they are middle of the road, they have other issues to deal with as late-round rookie pick Ben DiNucci will be starting this week. My fellow Undroppables tell me he’s a better runner than passer, so we’ll see how this offense functions with #DiNucciGang at the helm.

Favorite Individual Matchups

Brad Wire – Jonah Jackson/Halapoulivaati Vaitai (G – DET) vs. Deforest Buckner (DT – IND)

Deforest Buckner may not be a big name to some, but he is a quietly dominant force on an underrated Colts D-Line. His matchup with both guards for the Lions will play a big factor in how well they are able to run the ball. He has shown that his length is a big problem for even the best offensive lineman. Vaitai has already given up 3 sacks since his return and Buckner has tallied the same for himself. I don’t see this as being a good game for Stafford and the Lions if these two aren’t able to step up when it counts.

Tommy Mo – Ndamokung Suh/Jason Pierre-Paul/Shaq Barrett (DE/OLBs – TB) vs. Andrew Thomas (OT – NYG)

I think this is the 2nd time I’ve included Thomas in this matchup but the rookie keeps getting tested every week it seems. This time by a trio of the baddest defensive linemen in the league. Thomas will have his real welcome to the NFL moment with these three guys getting after Jones in a variety of ways. I would be planning the massage and ice bath after this game if I was Thomas, because he’s gonna get worked over by these veterans.

Unmatched | Week 8 (Terminator vs. Chalk)

David Marchand
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Unmatched | Week 8 (Terminator vs. Chalk)

The co-founders of The Undroppables (Terminator and Chalk) join us this week in our second ever episode of Unmatched. Tune in to see who reigns supreme this week!

Beer Money Bets | Making a Process for NFL DFS Pt. 8

Brian O'Connell
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Beer Money Bets | Making a Process for NFL DFS Pt. 8

I am still tilting after my DFS play this last week. I spent all last week building up this process as profitable and finished and what did I do? I did not follow my process. If you read along last week, I changed my process slightly because of the high salaries I had to deal with and didn’t play Davante Adams. I wrote the process on Thursday and at that point Aaron Jones looked probable to play and so bending my process seemed the optimal thing to do. Then Aaron Jones was out. A piece of news that substantial, especially to a team with a top implied total, should have made me rerun my process with the new information. Jamaal Williams had a higher value than Alvin Kamara, and I would have been able to play Calvin Ridley and Davante Adams. I checked it out and I would have scored 215.14 and FINISHED 42ND IN THE CONTEST. So there are two very important lessons that came out of this last week:

  1. Update your lineup Sunday morning for injury news. 
  2. TRUST. THE. PROCESS.

Okay, enough tilting. I think that is an adequate analysis of last week’s play and onto revising an old process. If you read last week, you would have also seen that I threw my old showdown process out. I have been thinking all week and I was attacking showdowns without any sort of theoretical backing and was going straight to analyzing numbers and it was doing horribly. So I am going to back up and try and spitball some theory about how to create a new showdown process and see if anything sticks. 

I am going to start with what many people consider the most difficult part of a showdown contest, choosing a captain. The obvious choice is to choose the highest scoring player. The major issue with that is on DraftKings, which will most likely be one of the highest-priced players and set you back 25-30% of your salary on a single player. For example, in the Ravens and Steelers game, I have Lamar with the most projected points. If I wanted to put him in as the captain, it would cost me 35.4% of my salary. I think it is really important to realize what a captain adds to your team. I think there are two arguments to be made when choosing one and the thoughts behind it:

  1. Select a player that is going to be one of the top-scoring players in the game: This will likely be the more expensive option and will be fairly safe. To think about this concept, as a captain you are getting an extra half a player. A way to think about it is assuming Lamar Jackson scores his projection of 19.8, him as captain would be worth a $5,900 player that scores 9.8 points. While this makes you have less overall salary, you’re paying up to get more elite production. That being said, if this player underperforms, you’re losing a lot. If Lamar scores 13.3 as he has twice this season, you’re paying $5,900 for 6.65 points extra. 
  2. Select a player that is going to outperform their salary the most: This is the high risk/high reward play. Using the same idea from the previous point, J.K. Dobbins costs $2,900 to captain for 4.5 added projected points. If Dobbins outscores his projection of 9 PPR points by 5 points, you’re getting another 2.5 points, so a total of 7 points, for only $2,900. If Dobbins disappoints, let’s say only scored 5 points, you are paying $2,900 for 2.5 points. While that doesn’t sound great, spending less on Dobbins as a captain most likely meant you could fit another high salary player into your lineup. 

After this quick analysis, my conclusion is to avoid high priced captains unless there are obvious cheap players to play. An example would be in a game where a starter was ruled out midweek and so a backup is cheaper than they should be and Green Bay and Jamaal Williams are a good example from last week. Whereas, in other games where there isn’t an obvious cheap play, I would go with captaining an overachiever option. This will maximize the salary you can use on top players. To give some plays this week, I am going to make two different lineups for Ravens vs Steelers based on these two theories and see which works out the best. 

PositionCaptain a StudCaptain Overachiever
CaptainLamar JacksonJ.K. Dobbins
FLEXJ.K. DobbinsLamar Jackson
FLEXMark AndrewsMark Andrews
FLEXJames ConnerJames Conner
FLEXDiontae JohnsonDiontae Johnson
FLEXDevin DuvernayJustin Tucker


Check back next week to see which of these lineups performs better. Good luck this week and if you have any questions, you can find me on Twitter @bpofsu. Also for all of your DFS needs, check out Paulie’s DFS Sleepers and Michael Reedy’s Money Makers and Heart Breakers here at The Undroppables. 

A Thin Goal Line Between Love & Hate | Week 8

Randal Kennedy
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A Thin Goal Line Between Love & Hate | Week 8

It may be a decade or more before we know the full impact of coronavirus on the sports industry. To protect the health of athletes, spectators and all others involved Major League Baseball just wrapped its season with a World Series that was less than ideal but a spectacle all its own. The Dodgers managed to overcome a 1-3 deficit to the Braves in the NLCS and win their first world championship since Kirk Gibson which made Vin Scully do a double-take.

Ironically, it was this day in 1956 that the Dodgers sold Ebbets Field to a local real estate group and began planning to move west. Coincidentally, West is where they’re playing the best football. The NFC West in particular. Every team in the division is above .500 and they’re collectively sporting the best winning percentage in the NFL. It’s there that we will find the best game of the week (all respect to Pittsburgh and Baltimore) the 49ers are traveling to the great northwest to take on the Seahawks. When last these teams met Dre Greenlaw stopped Jacob Hollister inches from the goal line to secure a 49ers victory and ultimately a trip to the Super Bowl.

As wonderful as that was for me personally, this column isn’t interested in folks who can’t score! (And the Seahawks aren’t interested in stopping anyone either) I shouldn’t have to tell you how bad the birds are in the secondary, but in case you’ve forgotten. The Seahawks have allowed the most targets, receptions, receiving yards and fantasy points to the WR position. Yikes! The question is, are the 49ers prepared to take advantage of it without one of their top options in the passing game? Read on, my friends.

Wide Receiver

49ers rookie Brandon Aiyuk is coming off his best game as a pro, reeling in 6 of 7 targets for 115 yards. The 49ers were enamored with his deep ball skills throughout the draft process and selected him over budding superstars CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. I expect his skillset to be on full display Sunday. It’s Brucie’s time to shine.

DeKaylin Zecharius Metcalf. DK for short. One of only three players in NFL history to amass 80 receptions 1350 receiving yards and 12+ touchdowns while sporting a 17+ YPC average in their first 21 games. The 49ers are banged up in the secondary and will probably shadow him with Jason Verrett. Oh, Mylanta.

Travis Fulgham has emerged as Philadelphia’s No.1 WR. Drawing a 29.7% target share the last three weeks. He gets a Cowboys defense on Sunday that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the receiver position this season. Fulgham should be locked into lineups.

Davante Adams has two career 40+ point fantasy games – one last week against the Texans and the other in Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings. He gets the Vikings again this Sunday. I expect Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target to visit the end zone at least once.

Others I like:

Justin Jefferson vs Green Bay
The Ghost of A.J. Green vs Tennessee
Jarvis Landry vs Las Vegas

Running Back

I love a good revenge story! I mean who among us wasn’t eerily satisfied when Hugh Glass delivered wild west justice to John Fitzgerald, the man who killed his only son. Glass managed to survive a bear attack and close his open throat wound with a flintlock. Then dragged himself through the wilderness sleeping in animal carcasses for warmth and fleeing from native Indians… I imagine that’s what it’s like playing for Adam Gase. I also imagine it’s going to be equally as sweet watching Le’Veon Bell dance in the Jets End zone.

The Dolphins are an NFL worst in goal to go situations. Giving up touchdowns more than 70% of the time. Darrell Henderson has monopolized the Rams backfield of late. I expect a tuddy on Sunday.

Dalvin Cook. Welcome back, sir. May we show you to your table? Cook has scored 4 times in his last three games against the Pack. Green Bay is also last in the league in adjusted fantasy points against opposing running backs.

Zack Moss hasn’t scored since week one, but he returned last week from a toe injury that sidelined him for three weeks. But playing perhaps his best game as a pro, Moss was clearly the Bills’ best back. The Patriots are one of the worst teams in the league against opposing RBs. Last week the 49ers rolled up 197 yards and four touchdowns! I think the Bills get back to basics this week and pound the Pats.

Others I like:

David Montgomery vs New Orleans
Derrick Henry vs Cincinnati
Ezekiel Elliott vs Philadelphia

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson leads Detroit in targets, red zone targets and end zone targets. The Colts are particularly stingy against the pass and I expect Stafford to lean on his young tight end.

Dalton Schultz. We’re outlined just how bad the Eagles linebackers are in coverage in this very column and Schultz will be catching balls from, checks notes, Ben DiNucci… young QBs tent to use tight ends like a safety blanket and this should be no different.

The Bengals are one worst teams in the league at defending the tight end position – giving up the 2nd most points to the position. Enter Jonnu Smith. Before the back injury that sidelined him Smith had scored at least 11 PPR fantasy points every week. I suspect he’ll get back on track this week.

Others I like:

Rob Gronkowski vs New York Giants
Mark Andrews vs Pittsburgh
Hunter Henry vs Denver

Paulie’s DFS Sleepers | Week 8 (Draft Kings GPP Plays)

Paul Lundgaard
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Paulie’s DFS Sleepers | Week 8 (Draft Kings GPP Plays)

Wide Receiver

Brandon Aiyuk – $5,800

Aiyuk faces Quentin Dunbar in coverage this week who is surrendering a league high 23.8 fantasy points per game.  Seattle will put up points and the 49ers backfield is banged up  along with Deebo Samuel.  Kittle can’t get it all.  Aiyuk is my Play of the Week.

Keenan Allen – $6,200

It’s crazy that Allen is priced this low with the season he is having and the connection that he has with lightning hot rookie QB Justin Herbert #HerbieFullyLoaded.  Allen gets this poor soul Essang Bassey in coverage this week who is rated 5.5 on Rotoballer’s scale of 5-10.

Tyler Boyd – $6,600

Boyd is the WR8 on the season and if say, JuJu Smith-Schuster were putting up these kinds of numbers he would be priced at $7500.  There is a shootout coming this week with the Titans and Bengals and Boyd faces Kristian Fulton IF he can suit up this week.  Fulton surrenders the 2nd most points to slot players. If he can’t, Boyd will likely draw Chris Jackson playing out of position.

Marcus Johnson – $3,000

The Colts need someone to stretch the field and T.Y. Hilton has just not got it going this year.  They may have found their guy in Johnson who, if he qualified, would lead the league in yards per reception at 20.9 Johnson draws Jeff Odukah this week who is giving up the 4th highest points to the WR2 position and who also ranks an abysmal 5.5 per Rotoballer.

Running Back

Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara are in great spots this week but I want to highlight:

Clyde Edwards Helaire – $6,500

This play is all about likely low rostership due to Le’veon Bell coming to town but even if Bell gets 12+ touches I see much more room for CEH to feast against the lowly Jets.  How much will Mahomes have to do Sunday?

Gio Bernard and Jamaal Williams are both great plays once again if the incumbent starters sit but my big value plays will be:

JaMycal Hasty – $5,000

Hasty has looked electric with the ball and lowers his pads to deliver hits, playing the physical type of ball that Shanny loves.  With him and McKinnon possibly the only two healthy RBs this week, I look for him to get double-digit touches which he has flirted with the last two weeks. If Tevin Coleman comes back this week, I might fade this play but camp reports were that TC was RB4 on the depth chart.  I don’t think he has it anymore.

Deejay Dallas – $4,000

I’ve talked up Dallas on my Twitter and on guest podcast spots for months and this might be his time.  All three RBs ahead of him on the depth chart haven’t practiced this week and I did not see another RB on the Seahawk’s practice squad.  This is a risky play with high reward if he gets the lion’s share this week.

Quarterback

Russell Wilson is an obvious great play this week but to fit everyone I want in, I will be paying down for:

Joe Burrow – $6,200 and Baker Mayfield – $6,100

Like I said, I believe that Cincy Tennessee game will shoot and I pointed it out last week, Burrow is still the best points per dollar value play on Draft Kings.  They simply should price him higher, take advantage of it.  No Odell unlocks Mayfield, I think that is pretty obvious now.  Baker came alive after Beckham went down.  He also has very inexpensive pieces if you want to stack that game with Rashard Higgins ($4,200), Donovan Peoples-Jones ($3,800) and Harrison Bryant ($3,200) – Austin Hooper is doubtful.

Tight End

I love that Raiders-Browns game and will probably exclusively be playing Darren Waller ($5,600).  The Browns are 28th DVOA vs. the position and Harrison Bryant is just way too damn cheap so he’s a nice play as well.

D/ST

I noticed something last week, DFS players were not playing the top defenses.  It’s usually a rule of thumb not to, but when you look at the top line ups on a week where the chalk crushes, many people did end up playing it.  I have to squeeze in the Kansas City Chiefs ($4,200) this week no matter what.  They put up 24 DK points last week for the 2nd time this year at 20+ and this week draw the Jets at home.  It’s going to get ugly.  Eat the chalk.

Cash Game Bonus Lineup

C/O Jackson Mears – Feel free to pivot and switch things up

Good luck this week, fam.  And remember, never gamble with your kid’s lunch money!
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