Beer Money Bets | Creating a Process for NFL DFS Pt. 6

Last week, I got back on track and won money on my early slate lineup. I cashed even though I made a major error and accidentally entered a tournament instead of my normal double-up contest. Ironically, I somehow almost perfectly won almost the exact same amount I entered and so I won almost the same I would have if I played a double-up contest. This gives me confidence that this process is not just going to work for cash games, but it might just need a slight tweak to be used in tournaments later on.  This week, I will review my large slate classic double-up from last week and get back to my showdown process.

Reviewing the Process

(Last week’s process)

1. The teams with the highest implied totals were not the highest scorers last week. The good news is 4 out of 5 of the teams I focused on scored at least 27 points and only Atlanta disappointed with 16 points. I will keep this part of the process, it’s working. 
2. My new value for WOPR adjusted projected points per $100 salary was an incredible success. It predicted the Brandin Cooks and Marquise Brown breakouts and Hopkins and Tyreek Hill both produced too. My 4 wide receivers averaged almost 25 points and so I am calling this a huge success. It’s so successful that I am going to give a nickname to that value and just call it PAWS from now on, or Projected points Adjusted for WOPR and Salary. In my other positions, Gurley boomed and CEH was okay but good enough to help me cash. 
3. Logan Thomas and Matt Ryan busted. I will continue to use Logan Thomas if he continues at this price because if he eventually lives up to his opportunity, he will be an absolute steal. Matt Ryan was a miss. I screwed that QB selection up and will look to improve that part of my process.
4. My cheap defense cashed again. The Texans DST scored 9 points for only $2600.

My wide receiver adjustment blew me out of the water, PAWS really worked and I am excited at how successful it was. I am going to consider using this in other contests from now on. 

It’s been a few weeks since I have looked at my showdown contest process and I think it needs some work.

New Revised Process for Showdown Double-Up

1. Choose a game and sort the players by projected points. For my projections, I use data from Peter Howard but you can use whatever projections you want. Use players with the top 10 most projected points as a possible player pool to initially focus on.
2. Use Vegas lines to see what type of contest the game applies to. We have 3 defined special categories: 
   1. Shootout – more than 50 total points.
   2. Slugfest – less than 40 total points.
   3. Blowout – Team won by 15+ points (Vegas lines almost never approach 15 points so I will apply this to games with spread greater than or equal to 7.5).
   4. If none of these apply, look at “All” category for guidance.
3. Use the following charts from Kevin Cole (link and link to articles) to create a lineup. They’re listed in the Resources section at the bottom of the article.
   1. Choose a Captain first based on the chart in the resources section of the article. I have found a lot of success in avoiding QBs in the Captain spot to save salary. The only exception to not playing a QB as a Captain would be in slugfest games.
   2. Create a new value to compare players by multiplying projected points per $100 by their usage in optimal lineups. Compare these values with the chart for roster construction to fill out the lineup. If the salary makes it hard to find a final player at a cheap price, look cheaper values at the captain position. Do not be afraid to be creative with roster construction using these values to support the decision. 

The Process in Action:

Note: I made this process before Julio Jones was declared active. I do not think this changes anything as I do not think I would trust him in a lineup anyway this week. 

1. I decided to look at the Atlanta vs Minnesota game. The 10 players with the most projected points are Ridley, Thielen, Cousins, Ryan, Mattison, Jefferson, Gurley, Hurst, Gage, and Zacchaeus.
2. This game has an O/U over 50 so I am going to use the shootout ownership percentages. 
   1. With Dalvin out, I think Mattison is a smash play at Captain and the Captain chart has the RB1 on the favored team as the 2nd most common Captain on optimal lineups. 
   2. I created new values by multiplying projected points per salary by the optimal ownership percentage. I sorted by this value and came up with Cousins, Ryan, Mattison, Thielen, and Jefferson as the top 5. Before I had only used this to choose my entire 6 player lineup but all the top players have high salaries. This limits my ability to do this process. It also has not been very successful so going forward, I want to try only choosing 3 or 4 of my players from these top 10 players. I chose Cousins, Mattison, Thielen, and Jefferson and will look at the entire player pool to fill out my roster. Salary really limits the lineups with this game and it led me to an interesting play. Mike Boone is only $600 and seems like an absolute steal. I think he will be a little chalky because of his price but I don’t really care, the process says he is a good play. Finally, I need to find a Falcons player since the process has me playing all Vikings so far. This is when I notice something about my roster construction that could take it to the next level. With so many high salary, high projected points players, I think there is an edge to be made at playing Mike Boone at Captain. Boone is projected to score over a point per $100 salary and no other player comes even close. Playing Boone at the captain spot lets me have a stacked roster while having a serviceable Captain. This is a risk that I feel is supported by my process and we will see how it works out.

Example Lineup

My process in action was all over the place and I think that is okay. I have yet to really struggle fitting all the players I wanted into the lineup yet this season. By writing out my thought process, I can go back and see where I went wrong. Good luck this week and if you have any questions, you can find me on Twitter @bpofsu. Also for all of your DFS needs, check out Paulie’s DFS Sleepers and Michael Reedy’s Money Makers and Heart Breakers here at the Undroppables. 

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