Brandin Cooks enters 2020 in an interesting position. He is currently slated as a late-5th/early-6th round pick in fantasy football redraft leagues (a top-30 WR). 2020 is by far the latest Cooks is being drafted in recent years. The main reason for his dip is obvious: it’s his concussion history. The positives for Cooks are that he is now on a team with a more accurate and better overall quarterback in Deshaun Watson, and inferior competition compared to his two seasons in Los Angeles.
The recent stream of concussions has me worried, and I explain why in this write-up. Cooks can still be a value in fantasy football drafts, but just make sure you understand the risk that comes along with drafting him.
Concussion History:
- 2015 with New Orleans Saints – Unspecified concussion. Cooks did not miss any time.
- 2018 with New England Patriots – Concussion in Super Bowl LII.
- 2018 with Los Angeles Rams, week 5 @ Seattle Seahawks – Left game but returned in week 6. Video suggests brief loss of consciousness.
- 2019 with Los Angeles Rams, week 5 @ Seattle Seahawks – Left game but returned in week 6.
- 2019, week 8 vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Left game and missed two more weeks before returning in week 12.
Cooks’ worst concussions by far were both against Seattle in 2018 and 2019 because the game tape suggests that Cooks lost consciousness. A 2001 article published by James Kelly, MD (who worked with the Chicago Bears) highlighted how these concussions can affect an athlete’s return to play timeline [1].
Rate of Recurrence:
Multiple medical journals have published studies that prove that once a player sustains a concussion, their risk of getting another concussion increases. A study by Guskiewicez et al. showed that among 4,251 college football players, those who suffered 3 or more concussions were 3 times more likely to sustain another concussion than those without any history of that injury [2]. This certainly applies to Cooks, who to this date has five documented concussions in the NFL. Additionally, another study focusing on concussions in high school athletes found that “athletes sustaining recurrent concussions had longer symptom resolution times, were kept out of play longer, and reported loss of consciousness more frequently than athletes sustaining new concussions” [3].
Correlation Between Elevation and Concussions:
The last piece of research that is working against Brandin Cooks was a study I found from JOSPT in 2014. The results of this study showed “the odds of a concussion were 30% lower when playing at a higher elevation”[4]. Based on a national average, the cutoff point for high elevation was 644 feet above sea level. For reference, Cooks’ new home field, NRG Stadium in Houston, only sits about 49 feet above sea level. Although this may seem like it would be inconsequential, there appears to be some significance to it when we look at Cook’s past concussions.
- 2015 – unspecified
- 2018 Super Bowl LII – U.S Bank Stadium, Minneapolis. Elevation: 853 feet above sea level
- 2018 at CenturyLink Field, Seattle. Elevation: 16 feet above sea level
- 2019 at CenturyLink Field, Seattle. Elevation: 16 feet above sea level
- 2019 at Wembley Stadium, London. Elevation: 148 feet above sea level
Of the four concussions I was able to pin down the location, three of them were below the 644-feet threshold used in the study. Looking forward, Cooks will only play three games in stadiums with elevation above 644-feet above sea level: Week 1 at Kansas City, Week 3 at Pittsburgh and Week 15 at Indianapolis.
Conclusion:
When you consider that concussions are a common injury in today’s NFL and that Cooks is 3 times more likely to sustain another one, I get nervous about his availability in 2020. There is research that suggests Cooks is 70% more likely to sustain another concussion in 13 of his regular season games. For his own safety and quality of life, you can’t help wonder: will Cook’s next concussion cause him to hang it up all together? He is in a high-risk category for me heading into 2020.
References:
[1] Kelly, James P. “Loss of Consciousness: Pathophysiology and Implications in Grading and Safe Return to Play.” Journal of Athletic Training, National Athletic Trainers’ Association, Inc., Sept. 2001, www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC155414/.
[3] Castile, Lianne, et al. “The Epidemiology of New versus Recurrent Sports Concussions among High School Athletes, 2005–2010.” British Journal of Sports Medicine, BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and British Association of Sport and Exercise Medicine, 1 June 2012, bjsm.bmj.com/content/46/8/603.
[2] Guskiewicz, Kevin M., and Atc. “Cumulative Effects Associated With Recurrent Concussion in Collegiate Football Players.” JAMA, American Medical Association, 19 Nov. 2003, jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/197667.
[4] Myer GD;Smith D;Barber Foss KD;Dicesare CA;Kiefer AW;Kushner AM;Thomas SM;Sucharew H;Khoury JC; “Rates of Concussion Are Lower in National Football League Games Played at Higher Altitudes.” The Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy, U.S. National Library of Medicine, pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24471872/.
