As a lifetime Chicago Bears fan, the past couple of years have been rough.
- 2017: Ryan Pace trades up one pick to secure what he thought would be franchise QB Mitchell Trubisky, passing on Deshaun Watson and future Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes.
- 2018: Cody Parkey ends the Bears’ season in dramatic fashion by missing the game-winning field goal against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Wild Card game.
- 2019: After a 12-5 record the previous season, offseason hype in full swing, Chicago falls short with a mediocre 8-8 record that did not result in a playoff appearance.
Staying true to the theme of disaster in 2020, the Chicago Bears’ offseason was a disaster. I break down the specifics and fantasy implications below.
Offense: A Breakdown
The Bears’ offseason was not pretty. For starters, Kyle Long, Chicago’s all-pro right guard “retired.” Rumors emerged that Long is interested in still playing, but will not be in a Bears uniform. Long essentially told Ryan Pace he would rather not play football than be a Bear in 2020.
Losing their best offensive lineman will not help Chicago’s struggling QB play. According to Pro Football Focus, the Bears O-line ranked 25th overall in 2019 and I wouldn’t expect it to get any better in 2020. The only linemen Chicago added via free agency or the NFL draft were a pair of 7th round picks.
Speaking of free agency and the NFL draft, the Bears’ top priority apparently was tight end. Jimmy Graham was signed on the first day of the free agency period to a two-year, $16 million contract. It’s a head-scratcher considering that at age 33 Graham appears to be well past his prime, and no other NFL team was eager for his services. Instead, Ryan Pace overpaid for the tight end by signing him less than 24 hours after free agency began. To further compound Pace’s strange affinity with tight ends, he used their first overall pick (which was in the second round mind you, following the aftermath of the Khalil Mack trade) on Cole Kmet from Notre Dame, bringing the team’s tight end total to nine.
The highlight of Chicago’s offseason was trading for QB Nick Foles, another player past his prime. The fact that his acquisition was the bright spot of this offseason demonstrates the disaster the Bear’s QB play has been the past two seasons.
Quarterback
Mitchell Trubisky
To say that Trubisky has been a disappointment to this point would be an understatement, especially given the QBs he was selected over in the 2017 NFL draft. In 2019, Trubisky struggled with injuries and by all accounts regressed in all major passing categories. Trubisky has been touted as a good athlete, which helped his fantasy floor with rushing yards, but even that declined in 2019. Trubisky’s rushing attempts per game and yards per game dropped. When looking at value over replacement player (VORP) among QBs, Mitchell went from a respectable 6.3 in 2018 to an abysmal -10.7. Looking at all these statistics, it’s no surprise why Trubisky finished outside the top 20 for fantasy QBs.
And yet, Trubisky has value in fantasy leagues whose format is 2QB or Superflex, (The Undroppables preferred method of playing) strictly because he is a starting QB. Offseason reports have suggested that there is a “ QB competition,” but following Ryan Pace and his decision making skills, I believe that bringing in Nick Foles was fluff to some way justify the drafting of Mitchell Trubisky. The front office is going to give Trubisky every opportunity, even at the expense of their record.
Nick Foles
For the better part of Nick Foles’ career, he has been a serviceable backup QB. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. That figured to change in 2019 when Foles landed in Jacksonville, but an early injury followed by Minshew Mania ended it. Now for his third time in three years, Foles is the projected 2nd string QB, but might have the clearest path to playing time.
As I outlined above, I am not confident in Trubisky’s abilities, and therefore at some point I would expect Foles to be named the starter. Like Trubisky, Foles does not have a lot of value in standard redraft or dynasty leagues, but in formats that allow you to start multiple QBs, he is an interesting flier. Over the past three seasons, Foles has only filled in, so it’s difficult to quantify any of his data for fantasy purposes. When breaking down his fantasy outlook, we need to take more of a commonsense approach. He’s a smart QB who plays to his strengths and adheres to his system. He has a decent cast of pass catchers, including Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, and Tarik Cohen. I envision him as a Josh McCown type in fantasy, someone who does not excite you per se, but could certainly be viable in the right scenario.
Running Back
David Montgomery
David Montgomery was certainly a disappointment last season, even by rookie standards. After a slow start, Montgomery was able to muster up some steam towards the back half of 2019, but still finished outside the top 20 for RBs. There’s a path for Montgomery to break into the RB2 conversation, but some things will need to change in 2020. He’ll need to either be more involved in the passing game, become a much more efficient runner, or the Bears need to get into the red zone more frequently.
Personally, I believe the former is the most likely scenario. 16 of the top RB finishers in 2019 had at least 40 targets. Besides TDs, receptions are the most valuable touches for fantasy RBs. Considering receiving was one of Montgomery’s strong suits coming out of Iowa State, it was confusing to not see him used that way last season. If Matt Nagy and the Bears incorporate Montgomery more in the passing game, then there’s a chance he’s a solid RB2/flex on fantasy rosters. Otherwise, if you roster him you could be in trouble. In games where Montgomery did not score a rushing TD, he averaged 8 PPR points per game. That will be crippling for a RB currently being drafted in the 4th round of 12-team leagues.
Tarik Cohen
Speaking of targets for RBs, Tarik Cohen turned in his second straight 90+ target season for Chicago last year. That might be surprising for fantasy managers who rostered Cohen, considering he dropped from a top-20 PPR back to ranking 44th in 2019. The cause for the drop-off: splash plays. In 2018, Cohen scored 8 TDs and had 7 plays of over 30 yards from scrimmage (one which was a 70-yard TD reception). In 2019, the pendulum swung the other way. Cohen had only 3 TDs with a single play over 30-yards. The fantasy community drafted Cohen at his ceiling and paid the price last year. There should be more home-run plays in store for Cohen in 2020, but it looks like 2018 was his apex. Other RBs being drafted in Cohen’s range are slated to be back-ups to start the season. They may be better assets if they are thrust into a starter’s role with a more steady workload.
Posted a clip of the #Raiders running All-Go, H-Seam over the weekend…
Here’s a look at the #Bears on the same concept — with Tarik Cohen releasing out of the backfield.
Coverage void for Trubisky to throw the seam. @NFLMatchup pic.twitter.com/8vUY4Rws2W
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) August 25, 2020
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson
You guys say that you are buying all the Allen Robinson but you aren't buying Allen Robinson.
— PAULIE'S CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS (@PauliesSleepers) May 17, 2020
Paulie’s tweet on Allen Robinson fully encompasses what Allen Robinson is in the fantasy community: slept on. On a points per game basis in 2019, Robinson finished as a top-10 WR. In fact, he was one of the most consistent WRs in the top 10. Among the top-10 finishers at WR, A-Rob was 4th in consistency (hovering around his 16 fantasy point average in all games). Robinson also very rarely hurt fantasy teams. Only three times did Robinson have less than 10 PPR points (second lowest percentage among WRs in the top 10). He’s the epitome of what every fantasy manager wants from a WR1: Consistent producer who does not ruin your week. Yet because the Bears have the makings of a dumpster fire this year, Robinson continues to be underappreciated. His late 3rd/early 4th round ADP is a steal.
Despite some high profile names on the defensive side of the ball, the Bears defense took a step back in 2019 and they have question marks along their secondary. If he claims the job, Nick Foles would be the best QB Allen Robinson has played with since he entered the league. There’s a possibility that Chicago is in a lot of shootouts with A-Rob finally getting targets from a competent QB. Worst case scenario, Robinson is stuck with Trubisky where he has already proven that he can produce in spite of mediocrity.
Anthony Miller
The most intriguing fantasy asset on this Bears’ roster is Anthony Miller. After his rookie campaign, many were hopeful that Miller would be able to take the next step forward in 2019. Unfortunately, an ankle sprain derailed the start to his season and as a result Miller did not become fantasy relevant until Week 12. Prior to re-injuring his surgically repaired shoulder in Week 17, Miller was averaging 15.5 PPR points from Weeks 12-16, living up to the 2019 offseason hype. During that same period, he also finished second on the team in routes run behind only Allen Robinson. Miller is clearly the Bear’s #2 WR and firmly entrenched as their slot guy. Given the uncertainty at the tight end position, Miller shouldn’t have competition for targets in the middle of the field.
The only question mark is health. Miller has already injured the same shoulder twice, both times requiring surgery. In limited sample sizes, studies have shown that NFL players who suffer a shoulder instability event (like a dislocation) are likely to have a recurrent episode nearly 50% of the time. However, when those players received surgical intervention, that number dropped to 26%. Miller has already had a recurrent episode, so it’s something to monitor in the future. When healthy, Miller is heavily involved and has demonstrated he can produce.
Ted Ginn Jr.
Barring an injury to another Bears’ pass catcher, Ted Ginn Jr. does not carry any real worth in all fantasy league formats. At 35, he’s well past the age apex for WR production. The last time Ginn was a top-30 fantasy WR was 2015. So why the addition? A Chicago Tribune article suggests that Ginn was brought in to serve as a mentor and to add a veteran voice in the locker room. With the departure of Taylor Gabriel, it’s also likely that Ginn was added to give the Bears’ offense a deep threat to stretch the defense. Without consistent volume, these types of players can be a huge risk. During Ginn’s three seasons in New Orleans, he only saw 7 or more targets in 6 games. As if that isn’t enough to diminish his value, neither Trubisky nor Foles has thrived throwing the ball down the field. Both were in the bottom half of the league, averaging under 4.0 yards per completed pass attempt.
Darnell Mooney
Speaking of field stretchers, the Bears’ 5th round pick Darnell Mooney is a burner. Mooney ran a sub-4.40 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. To be clear, Mooney is not a target in redraft leagues, especially since Ted Ginn Jr. plays a role similar to his. However, Mooney is an interesting investment in dynasty leagues. He produced at a young age while at Tulane, which is what you want to see from a smaller school player. Mooney is a big play waiting to happen, and assuming the Bears don’t bring someone in next season, he could be in line for a breakout in 2021.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham
If the introduction to this article did not paint a clear enough picture for Jimmy Graham in 2020, allow me to elaborate: Graham is a touchdown-dependent tight end and he has failed to score more than 3 TDs in the last two previous seasons. Aside from his rookie year, Graham produced career lows in targets, receptions and receiving yards. Despite playing all 16 games in 2019, Graham still finished outside the top 20 among tight ends. On a points per game basis, he was outside the top 30. Unless you play in a 16-team fantasy league that starts multiple tight ends, I cannot envision a reason to roster Jimmy Graham.
Cole Kmet
In what many draft experts labeled a weak tight end class, the Bears of course reached for one using their first pick on Cole Kmet. To give you an idea of how poorly Pace maneuvered the 2020 draft, after Kmet was selected, 48 picks were made before another tight end went off the board. It also begs the question, why sign Graham or roster the other 7 TEs if you were planning on taking one early in the draft?
With Jimmy Graham on the team, Kmet has little value in redraft leagues. Not to mention, rookie TEs rarely ever break out early. For comparison, on a points per game basis both T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant (whose profiles are far more impressive than Kmet’s) finished outside the top 25 in 2019. The last rookie tight end who was reliable was Evan Engram in 2017, only after the Giants WR corps was decimated with injuries. Kmet is an interesting dynasty asset, but I don’t think he’s the most intriguing prospect in this class. I prefer Devin Asiasi and Adam Trautman in rookie/startup drafts. Kmet is a well-rounded tight end whose numbers were rather underwhelming at Notre Dame. Don’t overextend yourself trying to acquire him.
Fantasy Summary
QB: Unless you are in a 2QB/Superflex league, neither Trubisky nor Foles hold much value. I prefer Foles between the two, but it could be a while depending on how stubborn GM Ryan Pace is.
RB: David Montgomery is risky, but could be a bona fide RB2 if he gets more targets. Tarik Cohen has gotten consistent passing down work, but without big plays he has shown he can burn fantasy teams. Look for him to bust off some long runs, but the top-20 PPR RB we saw in 2018 was likely his ceiling.
WR: A-Rob is a flat out stud and should be treated as such. For fantasy teams that wait on wide receiver, he’s a great asset to have as a WR1. Anthony Miller is intriguing, but has a lot of question marks in redraft leagues. I would take a flier on him or wait and see if he can be added over the waiver wire. Ted Ginn Jr. is unappealing. Mooney could be a taxi squad guy in deep dynasty leagues.
TE: It’s a wasteland. I’m not attracted to either of the players currently on Chicago’s roster.
Like the Offseason Breakdown series? Be sure to check out similar content from more of The Undroppables’ team members: Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants, Los Angeles Rams, and New England Patriots.
