In gambling, the idea of Arbitrage is making a bet where you are guaranteed to make a profit. This is done by shopping lines and finding mispricing to shift the odds in your favor. Dynasty is a game of variance, and many of the same principles apply. In a game where a one-game playoff typically determines leagues, the best team does not always win. That is why building surplus value in the form of players and future draft picks is essential to position your team as a lasting contender. The idea is that if you can find similar production at lower prices, you can use that surplus value to manage risk in the form of draft picks (Rather than thinking of picks as future players, think of them as a currency to buy current NFL players). However, trading away these young, fun receivers entering their prime is not easy. As a result, I have created a model to determine if receivers are undervalued or overvalued when compared to the Keep Trade Cut value. In doing so, I found two Year 2 receivers with similar underlying rookie efficiency stats and drastically different price points. I will be laying out why I will be tiering down from Garrett Wilson to get Christian Watson Plus in all my leagues.
Valuation
This opinion will be unpopular, but Garrett Wilson is drastically overvalued in dynasty fantasy football. With a WR5 ranking on Keep Trade Cut, the market has him projected for 16.7 ppg next season to be considered at fair value. That would be a 35% increase from his rookie season, resulting in a WR9 finish in 2022. Therefore, according to the model, he should be valued as the WR9, in the same tier as Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. This may not seem like a drastic change, but it is a difference of 959 points in KTC, putting his fair value at 5346 instead of 6305. In comparison, Christian Watson is priced in by the market for 13.3 ppg next season, which would be in line with the last eight games of the 2022 season if you adjust to a more reasonable TD rate (4 TDs in 8 games instead of 8).
Volume & Efficiency
Let’s compare the underlying metrics of these two rookie seasons. It is hard to compare market share stats, as Watson struggled with injuries early in the season and was not on the field nearly enough. However, per-route stats can help smooth this out (Sample size warning: Watson only ran 270 routes versus Wilson’s 596). Here’s a comparison of their rookie numbers below.
Watson earned higher targets per route run with 0.24, versus Wilson at 0.23, and a higher yard per route run, with 2.26 vs. 1.85. Watson also added 80 yards on the ground. However, Wilson had a higher PFF grade and posted a 22% target share throughout the season. I know what you are thinking; Wilson dealt with the poor quarterback play, which is why his numbers look worse. However, the pure volume of the Jets’ offense made up for the poor efficiency and boosted his overall fantasy performance. Here are the 2022 season stats for the Jets and Packers.
The Jets passed for more yards and more often than the Packers in 2022. It is reasonable to project an improvement in touchdowns from the Jets’ offense in 2023, but a drastic increase in attempts, pass yards, and pass rate is unlikely. I have seen people on the Twitter streets using splits without Zach Wilson at quarterback to justify his current price. For context, the Jets averaged 46 pass attempts per game in these games, with 265 passing yards. That 17-game pace would have led the NFL in attempts and been 7th in the NFL in Pass yards. These splits are incredibly skewed due to negative game scripts, and I believe projecting the Jets to lead the NFL in attempts and being a top 7 team in passing yards is a poor process – even with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
Conversely, the Packers already saw a significant decrease in passing production in 2022. There could be a few factors for this. One is the loss of Davante Adams. Another is Rodgers’ thumb injury, which he played through during the season. Because of these already below-league-average numbers in 2022, the decline in passing production with Jordan Love under center is likely overestimated by the dynasty community going into 2023.
The Year 2 Bump
I did a quick look at the last five years of 1st and 2nd round receivers and how their targets per routes run differed from Year 1 to Year 2, who ran over 250 routes in Year 1, to see if it was reasonable to expect a big jump in production from either receiver in Year 2.
As you can see above, 1st and 2nd round receivers have been a similar bet over the past five years to see improvement in Year 2. However, if you filter further to receivers who posted over a 0.20 in Year 1, you get slightly less encouraging results.
Key names that failed to increase their target rate in their second season include Calvin Ridley, Brandon Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, Chase Claypool, and CeeDee Lamb. It is also important to note that the increase is typically minimal in Year 2 on a per-route basis. Due to this, I think it is important to slow down on the Year 2 projection for Garrett Wilson, especially when the number of passing attempts will likely not increase.
Projection
Based on these assumptions above, I came up with optimistic projections for these two receivers in Year 2.
I tried to be as optimistic as possible for Wilson and neutral on Watson to prove my point. As you can see above, I got close to the 16.8 ppg that the market has priced for Wilson. However, here are the assumptions for that to happen.
- The Jets stay top 6 in pass attempts
- Wilson does see a 0.02 in targets per route run
- His catch percentage improves from 60% to 70% with Rodgers
- Wilson sees a 10% increase in yards per route run
As I have been attempting to point out, Wilson is already priced at his best-case scenario for 2023, with a lot of room for a letdown if he does not improve his efficiency in 2023 or if the Jets regress to a league-average pass rate. On the other hand, the bullish projections for Watson include barely above-average pass attempts, with a decrease in YPRR from his Year 1 total due to an increased sample. The difference is that Watson is not priced at his ceiling, which allows room for upside.
Risk Management
The dynasty fantasy football community does a good job of understanding and pricing the risk of older players based on the age cliff and injury risk. Unfortunately, the community simultaneously does a poor job of understanding the risks of younger players. The reality of a dynasty is that Garrett Wilson will not be on your team for ten years. The game is very unpredictable. Injuries happen every year; players retire early, players get in trouble, and situations change. Those risks will always exist. As I’ve outlined above, I believe Christian Watson and Garrett Wilson have similar probabilities of being a WR1/WR2 in fantasy football in 2023, but one is drastically cheaper. Tiering down and acquiring additional draft capital helps you mitigate these risks and stay a sustained contender. Remember, the best players to sell are the ones that are not easy to do so.
