The reward for being the NFL’s worst team is getting the following year’s first overall rookie pick. The Cincinnati Bengals won this distinction in 2019 and were gifted former LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. When it comes down to all team sports, the quarterback is the most important player period. Even though an NFL team has 22 starters compared to nine in baseball, six in ice hockey and five in basketball, a quarterback’s value trumps everything. A great quarterback will not only improve the team’s offense, but also help out the entire team by keeping the defense off the field.
On “Burrowed” Time
After a pretty respectable run with Andy Dalton under center, the wheels fell off in 2019. The Bengals were 2-14 in 2020. However, in his nine seasons as a starter, the Bengals were good for the first five but were under .500 in the last four. It was time for a coaching change a year ago and this year it was time to change the face of the franchise.
Now the Bengals are all in on Joe Burrow, the one-year wonder. This is concerning for sure, but what a year it was. Burrow threw for 5,671 yards, which was third most in NCAA history. His 10.8 yards per attempt ranks as eighth best in NCAA history, but his 12.5 adjusted passing yards per attempt lifts him to fourth best. His 76.3% completion percentage is the second best in college history. He threw for 60 touchdowns, the most in NCAA history, while only throwing six interceptions. Burrow is also the record holder for the best passing efficiency rating in a single season at 202.
Thread of Joe Burrow national championship highlights! 🔥🐯 pic.twitter.com/biLa7JLb5t
— 𝕿 🙏🏻 (@tcoss__) January 28, 2020
Burrow did all of this while playing in the toughest conference (SEC). To prove any doubters wrong, in the national title game against Clemson, Burrow had a six touchdown performance. He went 15-0 on the season and won the Heisman Trophy with 94% of the first place votes.
In the fantasy world, Burrow is currently QB20 according to FantasyPros Consensus Rankings. Absolutely grab him as your second quarterback in redraft. If he turns out to be what many believe he can be, he might be your starter sooner than later. If he’s bad, then you only need to plug him in for a bye week or drop him for someone entirely different. He’s worth taking the risk and could be an inexpensive difference maker.
Offensive Line Will Be Better
According to Pro Football Focus, the Cincinnati Bengals had the 30th ranked offensive line. They were only better than the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Rams. They drafted Hakeem Adeniji at the start of the sixth round. He brings versatility and played every game in college for Kansas. He was thought to be a third of fourth round talent according to Jordan Reid of the Draft Network. The Bengals also signed Xavier Su’a-Filo, a former second-round pick. He’s not been anything special but he is better than what they’ve had.
The most important news is the Bengals get Jonah Williams back. He was a first-round pick in 2019, but missed the entire season because of injury. He should help Michael Jordan, who was a fourth-round pick last season. Jordan had an inconsistent rookie season, but he was the youngest player on the team and will have more talent around him, namely Williams. Don’t expect Cincinnati’s offensive line to be top five, but if they finish around the middle of the pack, they would benefit both Burrow and Joe Mixon tremendously.
Defensive Makeover Will Take Time
Cincinnati might be a better team in 2020 by investing quite heavily in the defense. However, defenses don’t go from worst to best overnight. It will take time for signed free agents like cornerback Trae Waynes and safety Vonn Bell to gel. Cincinnati also drafted three linebackers, so the middle of their defense could be better, but this won’t happen overnight. Losing a veteran presence like Nick Vigil (who signed with the Rams) will make this defense rely on players like Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins to lead the group.
600 Reasons To Draft Burrow
As excited and hopeful Bengals fans must feel right now, they need to temper expectations for 2020. There are a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball. One thing is going to be apparent – they are going to struggle in many games and be forced to throw the ball often. This is good for Joe Burrow. Last year, Cincinnati quarterbacks had a combined 616 pass attempts. Don’t be surprised if those numbers remain about the same.
Joe Burrow might experience some growing pains at times and won’t be as accurate as he was in college, but he should be better than Dalton and company were last year. More attempts means more completions; with the high passing volume, Burrow should be able to hit 20 touchdown passes with the potential for more. A.J. Green is back. The offensive line will be better. This offense should have no problem moving the ball.
This benefits Mixon, Boyd, and Green, but it especially benefits Burrow as long as he plays to the level most are expecting. He won’t be Patrick Mahomes, but he should be better than his current QB20 ranking. Volume will be there. His efficiency needs to be just average, and Burrow can also add value through his better-than-average rushing ability.
Joe Mixon is #GoodatFootball
Joe Mixon has not lived up to expectations in three years, but he’s never had much help. Despite playing on a poor offense with a horrific offensive line in 2019, Mixon showed many why he has the potential to be a star. People need to ignore stats like yards per carry and focus on tangibles that show his talent.
Mixon’s 278 carries was tied for fifth in the league. That’s pretty exceptional considering he played on a team that wasn’t winning. His volume will go up as Cincinnati will improve, even if it’s ever so slightly. He was also seventh with a 27.7% Dominator Rating. That was better than Ezekiel Elliot, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, and Le’Veon Bell. Playing with Burrow (who loved targeting Clyde Edwards-Helaire at LSU) can only help him. He’s never been utilized in the passing game enough in the past. This should be an area Mixon must be salivating over, knowing that he might be used more extensively.
To go along with volume, Mixon showed signs last year that he’s elite. His 32.9% juke rate was fourth best out of running backs with at least 100 carries. He was only behind Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson, and Devin Singletary. Only Raheem Mostert and Saquon Barkley had more than Mixon’s 1.84 yards created per touch. Finally, Mixon had 6.4 evaded tackles per game. That was the most in the entire league.
The time is now for Mixon to assert himself as a top-tier running back in the NFL.
A.J. Green with the 3rd down snag in traffic followed by the strong and explosive finish. pic.twitter.com/glHLyurrml
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) August 15, 2020
Tyler Boyd & A.J. Green = Value
Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green are good values at their current WR29 and WR30 ADPs. Boyd is similar to Jarvis Landry: he comes with a safe floor and a limited ceiling. Green is more like an Odell Beckham Jr. He has the potential to be a WR1, even at the age of 31, the caveat being if he can remain healthy. Boyd is the safe play, while Green is the high risk/reward choice.
Boyd is coming off of two consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. He had 90 receptions last year but was less efficient than in 2018. This makes sense since the Bengals offense was terrible to begin with. If he can mesh the efficiency of 2018 with the volume of 2019, he has the potential to reach the 1,200-yard mark. Last year that would have placed him in the top five in yards. He’s never been a touchdown machine either, so any kind of positive regression would only bolster his value in fantasy.
A.J. Green’s talent and production has never been questioned. The problem with Green has been his health. He’s missed 13 games in three years. However, when he plays he is elite. In his career, Green has averaged 87 receptions for 1,284 yards and 9 touchdowns over a 16-game season. The last time he was on the field was in 2018 when he only played nine games, but was as dominant as ever.
Many think that Green is done. However, if he were truly finished, why then would Cincinnati throw the $18 million franchise tag on him when they could have easily let him walk and sign elsewhere? Expect Green to be in the conversation for Comeback Player of the Year in 2020 if he avoids the injury bug that has plagued him for the last few seasons.
The Third Man
While A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd will be the receiving focus on the Bengals, the third option remains blurry for 2020. Tee Higgins was drafted at the beginning of the second round and has the talent to eventually replace Green, but might not get as much playing time as people are hoping for. Former first rounder John Ross only played in eight games in 2019, but in three games he was electric; Ross remains a fantasy boom or bust type of player. He is probably the de facto starter, but will be on a short leash. If Ross fails to stay healthy or doesn’t start off like a house on fire, the team might turn to Auden Tate, who surprised many with his quiet contribution in 2019. Tate played 12 games and saw 80 targets (even though he only caught half of them.)
In any case, trying to figure out which player to draft is futile. Arrows seem to be pointing to Ross, but the team could go with any of these three as the #3 WR. Even if one rises above the others, he won’t be a consistent contributor that will be worth rostering in most leagues. Higgins remains the guy to target in dynasty, however.
A Late Sample Stash
The tight end position was one Cincinnati chose to ignore this offseason. They lost Tyler Eifert and did not replace him. C.J. Uzomah has only proven to be average at best. He’s most likely going to be the starting tight end who will see the most action. That said, sophomore Drew Sample is an interesting wild card. There has been some talk that he has been practicing as a movable piece, lining up as both a tight end and as a wide receiver. He’s a sneaky late round-add in dynasty, and could be the tight end to roster by mid-season. The good news is he is basically free, so he can be that final round flier to take a chance on.
Conclusion
Apart from Joe Mixon, who isn’t cheap but still could still outperform his current ADP, every other offensive player on the Bengals is undervalued. Therefore, target any and all of these guys. Joe Burrow, and A.J. Green have the best potential value returns. Tyler Boyd might not return as much value, but is the constant contributor that is as close to a sure thing as any in 2020.
For more of Marc Mathyk’s coverage on the AFC North, check out offseason breakdowns of the Steelers, Browns, and Ravens.
