Our very own Marc Mathyk, aka @Masterjune70, brings his take on the Cleveland Browns offseason breakdown to the table. Let us know @TheUndroppables on Twitter if you enjoy the alternate format!
Unfulfilled 2019 Hype
The NFL team that had the most hype coming into the 2019 season was the Cleveland Browns. After decades of failure, the Browns seemed ready to finally become a winning team. In 2018, they got their franchise quarterback and started to build a team full of young talent stemming from the days of former GM and analytics guru Sashi Brown. They had a great second half once they fired Hue Jackson. Gregg Williams took over the head coaching reigns with Freddie Kitchens running the offense. The Browns finished 5-3 and ended up with a semi-respectable 7-8-1 record.
Coaching Change
Kitchens did a great job as offensive coordinator and was also credited with being the catalyst that ignited Baker Mayfield in his rookie season. As a reward, he got promoted to Head Coach. Although he lacked the typical experience for the position, everyone was enamored with his ability to do so much in so little time. There were no arguments against the move. Instead, everyone was anticipating great things for Cleveland. However, it ended up being a decision that turned ugly when the wheels fell off in 2019. The Browns took a step backwards, finishing with a 6-10 record and leaving everyone with more questions than answers. Firing Kitchens seemed like a good place to start.
Kitchens is now gone. Kevin Stefanski is now in. It’s ironic that they fired a first-time Head Coach only to turn around and hire another one. Both Kitchens and Stefanski have been involved in the NFL since 2006; both are associated with the offensive side of things, most notably tight ends and running backs. For some reason though, no one is questioning the Stefanski hire. It remains to be seen if he will be good, but it’s hard to fathom that he will be any worse.
Mayfield’s Regression in 2019
New coach aside, it’s a year later and many have curbed their enthusiasm. No one is really talking about the Browns like they were last year, and this is probably for the best. One thing is abundantly clear though: the success of the Browns in 2020 rests on Baker Mayfield’s shoulders. So let’s begin there.
In Mayfield’s 2018 rookie season, he played in 14 games and was solid. He had a respectable 63.8% completion rate and a great 7.7 yards per attempt. He threw for 3,725 yards, threw 27 touchdowns, and had 14 interceptions. All in all, very promising. Unfortunately for Mayfield, his sophomore season was a step back. He was less accurate, having only a 59.4% completion rate, while his yards per attempt fell to 7.2. What was most alarming was his 21 interceptions compared to only 22 touchdowns.
Like Josh Allen and Sam Darnold, Mayfield is in a crucial third year. Yes, he has two years left in his rookie contract, but if he fails to even replicate his first season, many will start to wonder if his college dominance remained in college. Cleveland could start the wheels in motion to recruit another quarterback whether through free agency or in next year’s quarterback-rich draft. Right now he is being viewed as QB18 according to FantasyPros expert consensus rankings. Last year at this time, he was QB7 on average, with some even having him in the top five. He finished the season as QB25 in fantasy points. As crazy as it might sound, Mayfield has never finished better than QB17 in his first two seasons.
A Closer Look: A Tale of Two Halves
There is some reason to be optimistic for Mayfield, however. Many are just looking at the entire 2019 season and shaking their heads, but if one were to divide the season into two halves, the statistics tell an entirely different story:
FIRST EIGHT GAMES
- 159 completions on 271 attempts (58.7% completion rate)
- 7 TDs
- 12 INTs
- 23 Sacks
- 2-6 Record
LAST EIGHT GAMES
- 158 completions on 263 attempts (60.1% completion rate)
- 15 TDs
- 8 INTs
- 17 Sacks
- 4-4 Record
Mayfield had a disastrous first half of the season under Kitchens. At that rate, he would have thrown 14 touchdowns compared to 24 interceptions. Once Kitchens was fired, he turned his season around posting his strongest eight game stretch of his career. Over 16 games at this rate he would have thrown 30 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. What is also important to note is the Cleveland defense was the polar opposite of Mayfield. In the first half of the season, the Browns defense was 12th best compared to being 26th in the second half.
Addressing the O-Line to Improve Inefficiency
The offensive line did not do any favors for Mayfield either. In 2018, they had the 16th best pass protection ranking according to Football Outsiders. Last year they were 18th. This is not a significant drop but it is a drop nevertheless.
The biggest concern on offense was Cleveland’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. An offense DVOA is better when it is positive. In 2018, they ended up with an overall score of -1.1%(17th overall) but in the second half push it up to 12.3% (8th overall). Last season they never saw positive DVOA and finished 20th overall. So even with Mayfield’s improvement during the second half of the season, as an offense, they still were not moving the ball effectively or efficiently.
During the offseason, the Browns drafted two lineman, most notably Jedrick Wills Jr. as the 10th overall pick. They also added free agent and former first-rounder Jack Conklin. He has not lived up to his draft hype but has been above average and is a definite upgrade at the right tackle position. The offensive line should be much better for Mayfield in 2020.
Other Offensive Skill Positions
As for offensive weapons, Cleveland did not do too much but they really didn’t need to. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the best running back duo in the league. They signed Austin Hooper so now they have a solid contributor at tight end and may have two if David Njoku can start living up to his potential. Odell Beckham Jr. played hurt all of last season and will be healthy.
Jarvis Landry is the receiver who might not be ready for the start of the season. He underwent surgery this offseason to address a hip injury that has been bothering him. Landry has never missed a game in the NFL before this. Both former LSU teammates are both undervalued this season (Landry is always undervalued) and when healthy provide a significant one-two punch. If Landry avoids missing many games, it is conceivable that both him and Beckham can be back-end WR1s. The third wide receiver position is wide open with Rashad Higgins and rookie Donovan Peoples-Jones battling it out. Neither will most likely be fantasy relevant but both could be solid contributors if Mayfield can step up his game.
Conclusion
With a new coach, an improved offensive line, a proven tight end, and a healthy Beckham Jr., Baker Mayfield has no excuses to underperform in 2020. He may never be a high-end QB1 but look for him to bounce back. It really comes down to his accuracy issues. Baker Mayfield has the potential for a 30+ touchdown season but what is making many apprehensive is he also has the potential to turn into an interception machine like Jameis Winston. If Mayfield cannot improve in this area, he could be the next quarterback drafted first overall who becomes as a backup sooner rather than later.
