The Dallas Cowboys offseason has been one headline after another. After another 8-8 record, Jerry Jones and company FINALLY took care of business and removed the serial clapper, Jason Garrett. In comes former Super Bowl-winning head coach Mike McCarthy and several other coaching changes. The Cowboys also made sure to solidify the offense that made them one of the best in 2019. They started with Blake Jarwin, in a seemingly under-the-radar deal for the 4th-year tight end. As free agency loomed, the most significant question marks came on contract negotiations for Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper. Cooper would inevitably sign a five-year $100 million deal, and Dak would get assigned the franchise tag for $31.4 million. Outside of locking up core free agents, the Cowboys made improvements to their defense with Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, Aldon Smith, and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The 2019 offseason wasn’t all acquisitions, as several long-time Cowboys departed for other pastures. Future Hall of Fame Tight End Jason Witten and veteran Safety Jeff Heath went to Las Vegas, while Pro Bowl Center Travis Frederick announced his retirement. Each decision made, whether to the coaching staff or personnel, will have some significant impacts on the 2020 season. In this Dallas Cowboys Preview, Let’s take a look at each key player’s fantasy value in 2020.
Offense: An Overview
On paper, the Cowboys are one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. In 2019, Dallas gained nearly 1400 more yards and scored 13 more touchdowns compared to 2018. After ranking 1st in total yards by almost 400 and scoring the 5th most points in the NFL, the Cowboys remain nearly intact a year later. From a personnel perspective, the Cowboys had seven players ranked inside the top 50 at their respective positions: Dak; QB2, Zeke; RB3, Cooper; WR10, Gallup; WR23, Cobb; WR42, Witten; TE11, Jarwin; TE39. As the Cowboys went through scouting for the draft, no one in the world pegged them for targeting offense. However, the Cowboys made their attack even more potent with the selection of CeeDee Lamb with the 17th overall pick. With a new coaching staff, returning veterans, shiny new toys, and 160+ vacated targets to spread around, the Cowboys offense should reach elite levels for the 2nd time in as many years.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott has undeniable talent. But questions remain as to whether or not he can lead the Cowboys to the Super Bowl. 2019 was his best season yet with career highs in yards and touchdowns. He also saw significant bumps in his average depth of target and the average depth of completion. The biggest knock on Dak through the first four years of his career has been consistency. Against two NFC East teams (Giants and Redskins), he is 13-3 with an impressive 7.5:1 TD ratio, 254.2 yards per game, and a QB Rating over 105. However, in 48 games not against the New York and Washington, Dak has an unimpressive 56% winning percentage with 10 yards less per game and a QB rating under 95. Another negative is on Dak’s ability to continue drives. Despite the Cowboys ranking 2nd in 3rd down conversion percentage, Dak dropped nearly 7 points in completion % between 1st & 2nd downs and 3rd down. Now with Mike McCarthy, Dak should be able to fix some of the inefficiencies we saw a year ago. Dak is currently the 5th QB taken off the board in SuperFlex Startups so far this year.
Andy Dalton
The Red Rocket didn’t take long to find a new home in 2020. Shortly after being released by Cincinnati, Dalton signed a $3 million contract with the Cowboys. If Dak chooses to sit at all or gets injured, the Cowboys don’t seem to miss a lot by having Dalton under center. Through the first four years of each QB’s career, they are nearly identical in numbers despite talent discrepancies. Through their first 48 games, Dak is 40-24 to Dalton’s 40-23-1. Dalton had 1,200 fewer yards but had more TDs, and their completion percentage was nearly identical. Dalton would be stepping into a similar situation if he gets the nod and should provide substantial value to any fantasy team.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott
A pinnacle of consistency, Ezekiel Elliott has been a top 5 fantasy running back in three of his four NFL seasons. The only season not to have reached the top 5 was in 2017 when he missed six games due to a suspension. In that year, he still finished 8th overall according to NFL.com PPR scoring. In 2019, Zeke finished as the RB3 behind, Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones. Zeke had more rushing yards and receptions than Jones and only 30 fewer rushing yards than CMC. Zeke took a hit in the TD department compared to Jones and McCaffrey. However, despite rushing for the 4th most yards in 2019, he ranked 23rd in yards per touch. Once known for his explosiveness, Elliott took a step back in this department last year as well. Compared to 2018, where he ranked 1st in breakaway runs (15 or more yards), Zeke was 9th in this category last season. We also saw a fairly decent drop off in his yards created going from 3rd in 2018 to 11th a year later. The loss of Travis Frederick could play a significant role in 2020. However, one of Zeke’s best years came with Joe Looney controlling the offensive line. Zeke is being drafted third behind McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley so far in drafts. With room to get even better, he could easily warrant RB1 status.
Tony Pollard
You aren’t going to find a ton of expectations for the backup halfback when looking at the Cowboys roster. Any time you are the guy billed to back up an uber-talent like Elliott you won’t be for much. However, when Pollard stepped on the field, he showed what he was capable of doing. Excellent addition to best-ball leagues, Pollard had the 3rd-most rushing yards per carry among runners with at least 75 attempts (5.29). He also added 15 catches for 107 yards and a score. Pollard’s speed and quickness are a significant change of pace for Zeke’s patience and agility. With it, the Cowboys can rely on someone to take some of the workload off Elliott. Despite Pollard’s limited action, he was 8th in Yards per Touch, 9th in breakaway run %, and 5th in yards created per touch. Pollard had two games of over 100 yards and a touchdown, making him an excellent stash in dynasty and best-ball leagues. And for those looking to handcuff the 3rd overall pick in redrafts, Pollard is a must-have. According to FFPC ADP, Pollard is the 128th player off the board in recent drafts.
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper
Cooper is the #1 WR the Cowboys have been looking for ever since Dez Bryant. After successful seasons in Oakland, the Cowboys traded their 2019 first-round pick for the former Alabama receiver. Since stepping on the field, Cooper has been the go-to-guy in the Dallas offense. Turning around a once-dormant attack into one of the leagues best. Cooper finished 2019 with 79 receptions (15th), 1,189 yards (7th), and eight touchdowns (T-4th). Cooper was also very efficient when on the field. Of players with at least 100 targets, he was 9th in average depth of target, 3rd in yards per target, and 7th in yards per reception. What’s even more impressive is that he did all of this with one of the league’s worst cushion rates (3.79 yards; 77th). However, despite seeing tighter coverage, Cooper generated nearly 2 yards of separation per target on average. Which ranked 38th in the league. Although he finished as WR10 a year ago, he is currently being drafted as WR13. With other targets to go around, and an offense known for its efficiency through the air, Cooper could easily beat his ADP.
Michael Gallup
Gallup had the opposite of a sophomore slump, exploding onto the scene in 2019. After a pedestrian rookie season, Gallup proved he was worth the hype coming into the league. The former Colorado St wide out produced 2x more receptions and yards and 3x more touchdowns in 2019 than the year prior. The increase in opportunity had massive effects on the 2nd year pass catcher, jumping 54 spots from WR77 to WR23. Gallup was impressive last year, finishing 12th in yards per target despite being 28th in average target distance. Despite scoring 212.7 PPR fantasy points, Gallup led the league in dropped passes with 11. Gallup is a steal right now in the 7th round with WR33 ADP so far this offseason.
CeeDee Lamb
The surprise pick of the draft, Cedarian Lamb, is the perfect piece for this Cowboys offense. CeeDee Lamb is an absolute stud after being one of the Biletnikoff Finalists a year ago. At 6’2″, 185 lbs, Lamb is a motor that just won’t quit. In his last two years, he averaged 3.42 yards per route run and 9.2 yards after the catch (per reception) while forcing 38 missed tackles. When targeted, OU QBs had a near-perfect passer rating at 146.5. Lamb is an ideal addition to the Cowboys offense that should see a reasonably significant uptick in 3 and 4 WR sets. From 2016 through Week 13 of 2018, Mike McCarthy-led attacks ran 76% of their formations in 3, 4 & 5 WR sets. The Cowboys also lost more than 160 targets with the departures of Jason Witten and Randall Cobb. With a definite increase in opportunity and a significant target gap to fill, Lamb should CRUSH his current 106 ADP. #BOOMER
Tight Ends
Blake Jarwin
Blake Jarwin was one of the most efficient tight ends in football in 2019. He was an excellent pass blocker, and ranked top 10 in yards per reception, yards per route run, and catch rate. Despite being so efficient, he failed to produce as the number of opportunities didn’t come his way. With Jason Witten making a return in 2019, Jarwin only saw 43 targets, which he turned into 365 yards and three touchdowns. With the new regime, the loss of Witten, and other opportunities sure to be available in the Cowboys offense, we should finally see the Jarwin star shine bright. The one area we need to keep an eye on will be his ability to run block. Despite being one of the league’s best pass blockers by PFF ranking (18th), Jarwin was nearly terrible in run blocking. However, where Blake failed, Dalton Schultz excelled, ranking as the 8th best run-blocking TE, according to PFF. If Jarwin can’t figure out his blocking woes, he may miss some time and give Schultz more opportunity.
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