Every season, there is an argument between who’s going to be a new quarterback’s top receiver. In 2021, arguments raged on Twitter/X if Cooper Kupp, or Robert Woods was going to be the #1 option in L.A. In 2022, the masses on argued if Jerry Jeudy or Courland Sutton was going to be the #1 in Denver. However, in 2023 there hasn’t been this argument, but there probably should be one in San Francisco. I believe the Dynasty community has this dynamic wrong, and the market should correct itself by the end of the season.
If you haven’t guessed it by now, I am talking about Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. The dynasty market currently has Aiyuk ranked as WR23 vs. Deebo at WR28, and I believe this is a mistake. There are 3 main reasons why I believe Samuel has fallen from grace as the WR6 just one year ago.
“The Running Back Glory Days are Over”
Kyle Shanahan, as well as Samuel, have made it clear that Deebo’s running back usage is not a priority in 2023. Many see this and see Samuel’s utility disappear in fantasy football, as 25% of his 2021 Fantasy points came from his 365 yards on the ground, alongside his 8 TDs. However, what is forgotten about that 2021 season is that Samuel put together one of the most dominant receiving seasons in recent memory.
Here is Samuel’s 2021 season vs. some of the best WR’s in Football
While I don’t believe Samuel will ever replicate his 2021 RB numbers, a zero in that department is also unlikely. Chalk and ESPN’s Mike Clay both have Deebo projected for roughly 250 rushing yards, and 2-3 TD’s. However, I believe that the rushing numbers are just a bonus. Samuel is a legit Superstar as a receiver in the NFL as long as he is healthy.
“The emergence” of Brandon Aiyuk
Aiyuk had his third year breakout in 2022, posting a 21% targets per route run, a 1.91 YPRR, and a 80.9 PFF Receiving grade, which were all career highs. This was good for his first 1,000 yard season, and has vaulted him up to WR23 on KTC. While this is a good season, Aiyuk has played 3 seasons in the NFL but has not surpassed 2 YPRR once. Samuel on the other hand, has posted 3 seasons with about 2 YPRR (2019: 2.04, 2020:2.26*, 2021:2.98). We have to note that Samuel only ran 173 routes in 2020. I usually do not like to look at splits, as you are taking an already small sample size of an NFL season, and cutting it down even further. However, there was a notable difference between production for Aiyuk when Samuel was out.
While I wouldn’t put much stock in the without Samuel numbers, the numbers with Samuel on the field are concerning. 416 routes is very much a usable sample size, and those per route metrics give me even more confidence that Samuel will continue to be the number 1 option when healthy.
The QB Situation
While I am firmly in the camp that Brock Purdy is not a very good quarterback, he was pretty good in 2022. He posted nearly identical advanced metrics as Jimmy Garoppolo (Purdy finished at QB9 in EPA/CPOE composite, which is pretty decent at predicting next season’s EPA). In addition, Sam Darnold was actually pretty good in 2022 (5th in EPA/CPOE). I have full confidence that if worst comes to worst, Darnold would post average NFL numbers with the weapons in San Francisco.
Valuation
After looking at KTC graph history over the past 24 hours, I have come to the conclusion that after a player’s first three seasons, value gradually decreases over the long-term. Once value is lost, it is rare that it is gained back. However, there is one main exception to this rule. If you are extremely elite and a top top 12 option at the position (e.g.,Tyreek Hill or Cooper Kupp). Low-end WR2’s are not enough to move the needle for fantasy gamers as the age apex approaches. Names that come to mind are Tyler Lockett and Brandin Cooks. However, top 12 finishes can move the needle. Here is Mike Williams’ chart below. Before the 2021 season, Mike Williams ranged from WR50 to WR60, before jumping to the peak of WR15 during the season after a WR12 overall finish. 
For context, that value jump is equivalent to the 2023 1.08 in SF. If you bought low on Williams prior to the 2021 season, you could have created value equivalent to the rookie 1.08 out of thin air. While this is certainly a bigger value increase than what is presently available with Samuel, Williams did only scored 15 PPG in his bounce back 2021 season, and has never been particularly efficient (His 2021 season has been his peak at 1.97 YPRR). Even if you take away all of Samuel’s rushing in 2021, he still would’ve finished with 16 PPG. Samuel also only scored 6 receiving TD’s vs Williams 9. Overall, I believe an 18 PPG season is very much in the range of outcomes with TD luck and some rushing attempts and would likely vault Deebo back into the top 15 in consensus dynasty rankings after the season.
The last step to determine if a player is undervalued is redraft rankings. Dynasty rankings often lag moves in Underdog ADP. Knowing this, we can use this to determine if a player is properly priced. Currently, Deebo is WR18 on Underdog, while Aiyuk is going at WR27. Deebo looks undervalued in dynasty fantasy football (WR28), especially considering he is only 27 years old. Aiyuk looks properly priced, as he is currently WR23 on KTC and going just 4 spots behind in Underdog drafts. While Deebo certainly comes with injury risk, there are not many chances to buy a legit WR1 in his prime at WR28 prices. He is going around players such as Zay Flowers and George Pickens. While they are young, exciting players, their ADP is currently WR40 and WR35 on Underdog. Because of this, Deebo Samuel is a big upside bet at a cheap price.
