One of the more difficult players to forecast in 2020 is the ever so talented, but often injured tight end in New York – Evan Engram. While many fantasy football experts have a consensus top 3 at the tight end position, Engram finds himself on the outside looking in. His ranking is not due to a shortage of talent, nor a lack of opportunity to succeed. Instead his ranking is secondary to the injuries that have plagued him early in his career. So, let’s break down Engram’s injury history and forecast what 2020 might have in store.
Past Medical History:
Listed below are Evan Engram’s injuries since 2017 (the year he entered the NFL). I have assigned risk values to each:
- Green Flag = no real issue/injury that commonly occurs in the NFL.
- Yellow Flag = minor concern, recurrent issues could become chronic and impair his long-term outlook.
- Reg Flag = major concern, could negatively affect the next season.
Disclaimer: These designations are my opinion alone and based on my past medical experience as a physical therapist and research I have studied.
- 2017 Rib Contusion: Green Flag
- Common NFL injury. This is part of playing a physical sport.
- 2018 Concussion: Yellow Flag
- Recurrent concussions (3+) can become a problem. Engram only has one documented concussion in the NFL. See my “Brandin Cooks | Concussion History” article for more information on concussions.
- 2018 Ankle sprain: Green Flag
- Simple ankle sprain. Engram played through the injury and did not miss any time.
- 2018 Hamstring strain: Yellow Flag
- Recurrent hamstring strains can be a chronic issue in athletes.
- 2019 MCL sprain: Yellow Flag
- Knee injuries are something that need to be closely monitored in NFL players, however Engram did not need surgery and was able to return later in 2019.
- 2019 Lisfranc Injury: Red Flag
- There is limited data on NFL players with this injury, however the data is in-depth and highly specific. Research suggests Engram could be limited in 2020 and even 2021.
Background Information on Lisfranc Injuries:
The Lisfranc joint is commonly referred to as the midfoot joint. It is the part of the foot where all the long toe bones (metatarsals) meet the bones that makeup the arch of a person’s foot (cuneiform bones). The midfoot joint is important, specifically in athletes, because it serves as one of the main points of stability in the foot. Without a stable Lisfranc joint, an athlete is unable to push off while running, jumping, cutting, and pivoting.
Dislocation injuries are the most severe type of Lisfranc injury. The dislocation usually involves separation of the first and second metatarsals.
With a dislocation Lisfranc injury in sports, surgical intervention is needed to stabilize the midfoot joint. Typically, stabilization is achieved with a screw surgically inserted into the foot. It is unclear if Evan Engram had a dislocation. He had surgery on 12/20/19 to stabilize his Lisfranc joint. Although his injury was classified as “not a full Lisfranc sprain,” the injury was significant enough to require surgery and would suggest a dislocation.
Athletes who have surgery can play with the screw that is used to stabilize their foot still in place. With that said, running and other dynamic movements with the screw are usually uncomfortable and can result in setbacks/flare ups. We saw these types of flare ups with Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown in 2019 when he missed 2 games following Lisfranc surgery. 12+ months after surgery, the screw can be removed from the foot with another surgery and outcomes 2 years afterwards are usually better.
Research and Past Results:
For NFL players who have had Lisfranc surgery similar to Engram, production afterwards often took a big hit, at least in the short term. Research has shown a significant decline (21% decrease) compared to players’ pre-injury levels the season following a Lisfranc injury [1].
Return to play times vary between 8-14 months. Athletes without surgery are able to return to play much quicker. Typically those who require Lisfranc surgery are looking at least at 10-12 months before they are able to handle the demands of the NFL [1] [2].
When looking at NFL players’ durability after a Lisfranc injury for the rest of their career, on average injured players played 5 fewer games compared to healthy control groups [2]. Although the data was not statistically significant, (p-value 0.61) it does show how the pain following Lisfranc injuries can resurface.
These comparisons are not perfect, but below are how a few skill position NFL players performed 1-2 years after Lisfranc injury with surgery:
- Marquise Brown 2019
Played 59% of team snaps; missed 2 games with ankle injury
- Santonio Holmes 2012
| Average Games Played Pre-Injury | Average Games Played Post-Injury | Points Per Game Pre-Injury (PPR) | Points Per Game Post-Injury (PPR) |
| 14 | 10 | 11.4 | 4.5 |
- Maurice Jones-Drew 2012
| Average Games Played Pre-Injury | Average Games Played Post-Injury | Points Per Game Pre-Injury (PPR) | Points Per Game Post-Injury (PPR) |
| 15 | 13.5 | 17.3 | 7.9 |
Projecting Engram in 2020:
The timeline of Engram’s surgery is troubling because Week 1 of the NFL season puts Engram at just under 9 months post-op. This is on the shorter end of return to play standards based on the research. This suggests that Engram either A) could miss the first 1-3 weeks of the season, or B) he is returning from his injury way too soon and subsequently at higher risk of re-injury.
As I stated above, the research shows that for the first 2-3 seasons afterwards, player production dropped on average by 21% [1]. Equating that to Engram’s career fantasy football production, Engram should generate 9.96 PPR fantasy points per game (career average of 12.24 PPR points per game). For reference, 9.96 points per game would mean Engram would have been TE13 in 2019.
The sample size is small, but for offensive players (excluding linemen) who have recovered from Lisfranc injuries (both surgically and non-surgically), there is a 30% chance Engram plays all 16 games in 2020. It’s worth noting that Engram has never played a full slate of games in his career. The data suggests an 80% chance that he would be able to reach at least 14 games, an achievement Engram has only been able to do once in his career. There is a 90% chance he should be able to play at least 12 games, Engram’s average over his first three seasons in the league.
Projecting 12-13 games for Engram at a 9.96 points per game pace, he would be slated to finish anywhere from TE16 to TE11 based on tight end fantasy production as a whole over the last three years. Currently Engram is the being drafted as the TE7 in redraft fantasy football leagues.
Conclusion:
Looking at all the data available, Evan Engram is a player that carries substantial risk heading into 2020. Considering that he 1) may not be ready for week one, 2) could miss 3-4 games due to another lower body injury, and 3) that his production could decline, you may want to draft another tight end, or at the very least have a contingency plan should Engram become unavailable.
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