Fantasy Hot Seat Week 2: One Man’s Trash…
Last week I did something I haven’t done in a long time. As I was driving through the streets in my town on the way to the store, I noticed signs and elaborate balloons set up for a nearby garage sale. At first glance, I didn’t think anything of it. I drove past the signs and the balloons and made my way to the store. However, I said what the heck and went to the garage sale on the way back, something I haven’t done in only God knows how long.
While at the garage sale, I saw all types of things, from vintage clothing to a pretty cool record collection, baseball cards, etc. But one thing struck was this weird looking chair that was painted to look like an Elephant. It had floppy ears and everything, and I asked myself, “Why would someone own this, let alone keep it, let alone think someone else would want to buy it?” As I am sitting there contemplating the strangest things, a little old lady came in and purchased the chair.
The idea of this old lady buying this chair made me think of the things we do as fantasy football players. Last week we introduced to you a new concept called the Fantasy Hot Seat. We discussed several players that could very well be on the hot seat for fantasy owners. It was a bit of an up-and-down week with both CEH and Aaron Rodgers having some of the best weeks we’ve seen in a long time. However, both A.J. Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. missed the mark pretty significantly.
Now, there’s one thing we need to say to set them straight: this column is not to show guys we don’t like; it’s actually entirely on the contrary. From the start of the 2020 offseason, CEH was my #1 dynasty draft pick. He continues to be high on my list of “go get” guys. But, based on price, expected production, and what it’s needed to meet the numbers to pay off, it was smarter to pass on CEH in startup or redraft leagues. Context matters, so consider everything as we discuss some players on the fantasy hot seat in Week 2.
Cooper Kupp – WR, Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp hasn’t been the same since breaking out at the beginning of 2019. Over the first five weeks of the season, Kupp had over 100 yards in four of five games. Kupp would add a 220-yard game in Week 8. Over that span, Kupp was the 2nd-best fantasy WR. From Weeks 9-16, Kupp would rank as the 42nd-best fantasy receiver though. A lot of this had to do with the Rams changing personnel. Over the first five weeks, the Rams ran three receivers 85% of the time. Kupp saw snap counts of 68, 63, 63, 85, and 46 in those games.
After Week 4, however, Kupp would see over 55 snaps just four times. The change in snap counts came because the Rams switched to 1-2 personnel (2WR, 2TE) more frequently. Despite his limited work, Kupp did score a TD in his final five games last year. Kupp has now had fewer than 55 yards receiving in six of his previous eight games, including this past Sunday night vs. the Cowboys. At this point, to provide fantasy value, Kupp is very touchdown-dependent. If he doesn’t score, he’s not worth the starting spot.
I am still giving Kupp another chance this week vs. Philly. Philly just gave up ten catches for 132 yards to Washington receivers. The Rams offense is much better than Washington and should have higher production. But if Kupp doesn’t turn it around quickly, it may be time for him to ride your fantasy bench.
Baker Mayfield – QB, Cleveland Browns
Last week we spoke about a Browns receiver, Odell Beckham Jr. This week, it’s only right to talk about the thing (or person) who is causing is OBJ to be on the hot seat in the first place. That, of course, is Browns’ signal-caller Baker Mayfield. Since entering the league as the #1 overall pick, Baker has been one of the more captivating QBs in the league. However, he has gained more attention for actions outside of football, such as planting the OU flag at Ohio St or running from the cops.
Video of Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield running from police & getting tackled has been released. pic.twitter.com/RZuJbDc5Yd
— Stadium (@Stadium) March 10, 2017
A funny stat I saw the other day that might make fantasy players laugh is that Baker Mayfield has starred in more commercials than he has won NFL football games. While that is of course in jest, the numbers don’t get much better. Over his last eight games played, including Week 1 vs. Baltimore, Baker has five games of under 200 yards passing and has thrown 10 interceptions over that span.
What made us a bit intrigued by Baker going into the 2020 season was his aDOT, or average depth of the target, which ranked 2nd only behind Jameis Winston over the last seven weeks of last year. However, that number has dropped a full yard so far in 2020. You may be wondering how a single yard is worrisome? While the 9.5 aDOT he had last week was good enough for 10th, it shows regression.
Some might be attributed to the Ravens stout pass defense, but it just wasn’t right when looking at the tape. According to PFF.com’s live play by play analysis of the Ravens and Browns game, the comments are unsurprisingly negative. Despite the low, inaccurate throws, Baker does have a knack for finding the end zone. Although he only saw it once in Week 1, he finished the last seven games with 15 touchdowns, including two on the ground. The Kevin Stefanski offense will be more of a ground and pound, which if they can keep drives alive and put up points, the efficiency numbers should rise. But keep Baker and this entire Browns offense on thin ice if you plan on winning your league in 2020.
Rob Gronkowski – TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We haven’t seen Rob Gronkowski on an NFL field in more than a year. But with no pre-season to judge or analyze a player, the only thing we could go on was what he has done in the past. After watching Week 1, it seems as if the expectations put on Gronk by a lot of fantasy players may have been a bit higher than they should have. Before the season started, Gronkowski was drafted as the 6th tight end off the board according to FF Calculators ADP data. Currently, Gronk is the 33rd best fantasy tight end.
Obviously, it’s just one week, and there is still plenty of time for him to turn it around, but he wasn’t even the best tight end on his team. O.J. Howard had four receptions on six targets and a score compared to Gronk’s two receptions on three targets. What gives us a bit of hope is that Gronk saw more snaps (54) than Howard (37), which shows that Gronk will have more opportunities than the other guys. However, more than half of his snaps (31) were used as a blocker (24 RBLK, 7 PBLK). Howard, on the other hand, only saw 15 of his snaps as a blocking tight end.
The news of Chris Godwin in concussion protocol gives us a chance to see Gronk more involved in the passing attack. However, if he still can’t find his way, it may be time to move on. Gronk is, without a shadow of a doubt, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but if he doesn’t return to the form of the past, guys like Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson, Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant, and even Jimmy Graham (all of which recorded a TD in Week 1) could pass the old man by.
Zach Ertz – TE, Philadelphia Eagles
For what seems for as long as I can remember, Zach Ertz has been a top-5 tight end in fantasy football. He has been no lower than the top four in the last three years, and has been a stud for the Eagles since entering the league in 2013. Week 1 was strange, though, as the eight-year veteran caught three passes for only 18 yards. Ertz did score, which gave him some fantasy relevance last week. However, fellow tight end and teammate Dallas Goedert saw more targets (9), more receptions (8), more yards (101), and scored a TD as well. What seems to be getting in the way of my analysis of Ertz’s production value moving forward is his ongoing contract issues.
Report: Zach Ertz, Eagles GM Howie Roseman had 'heated discussion' over contract. https://t.co/D1RQrFxOjR pic.twitter.com/st9uHHYEeq
— theScore (@theScore) September 13, 2020
Contract negotiations can get ugly – ask Le’Veon Bell or Dak Prescott – and can often inject resentment from both sides of the talks. Thankfully, we know that coach Doug Pederson isn’t doing anything to hurt the team by weeding Ertz out with play calling. Although Goedert had more targets than Ertz, he still had seven on the day. However, could his poor play be his way of silently protesting the contract negotiations?
While we certainly don’t want to think either would happen if Ertz wants out of Philly because of it, he’ll do everything he can to make that happen (See OBJ in NY.) Whatever the reason, something is affecting Ertz, and we need to keep an eye on both his play moving forward and the increased involvement of Goedert in this offense.
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