EQUATION CONSTRUCTION
I wanted to develop a “formula” to help differentiate between players and help decide how to find the best players when drafting for Redraft leagues. That leads me to concentrate on a few areas for rookie evaluation for redraft leagues that give me a solid chance at finding some players that will help me win some championships. These variables for the formula are Draft Capital, Opportunities, Supporting Cast, and Draft Profile.
Draft Capital – The higher the player is drafted in the NFL Draft, historically, that player is given the most excellent chance of success in the NFL. But, again, this goes for fantasy purposes; these players generally correlate to having the most success in fantasy football.
Opportunities – The NFL has limited snaps and options for players to touch the football (outside the quarterback and center). Players’ health and projected snaps/targets are evaluated here.
Supporting Cast – This is purely subjective, but I feel that some positions (wide receivers and quarterbacks) benefit greatly when they have an excellent supporting cast for rookies, specifically for fantasy.
Draft Profile – Trust your process when you evaluate rookies. If you are high on a rookie but fell in the draft, still believe in their rookie profile. They are the same athletes they were before the draft; don’t let the draft capital completely change your opinion of the player.
2022 Rookie RB Review
You win some, you lose some. I didn’t quite nail my 2022 running back predictions, but Breece Hall certainly would have finished in the RB1 topic if it wasn’t for the season-ending injury he received. We love to see some players like Dameon Pierce and Isiah Pacheco come through, and there were some solid weeks out of Rachaad White and James Cook at the end of the season. I did say to draft Kenneth Walker III and Tyler Allgeier last year in redrafts, though; KW3 was more obvious, but I was saying Allgeier should be drafted.
Draft Capital
Here are the running backs drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft:
The top choices right away are Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, with both having first-round capital tied to them. I think both were drafted in good situations and will have an impact immediately. Zach Charbonnet was drafted high for a running back in the second round. The Seattle Seahawks already had Kenneth Walker III, but we know Pete Carroll likes to run the ball, so maybe both will have some value.
Opportunities
The clear workhorse in the group will be Bijan Robinson. The Falcons will want to run the ball, and drafting a running back 8th overall means you look to use them often right away. Jahmyr Gibbs will also have usage, most likely in the receiving game and between the 20s of the field.
Lots of players do have some direct paths to workhorse roles. Roschon Johnson, with the Bears, can get most of the touches if Khalil Herbert gets injured or underperforms. Devon Achane, Tank Bigsby, Tyjae Spears, and Kendre Miller have similar paths.
Supporting Cast
Gibbs is given a significant advantage with the supporting cast. He is in a great offense and one of the league’s best offensive lines. Devon Achane has the speed around him to have light boxes, and he has the speed to match his teammates.
Bijan Robinson has talent around him and a coach who wants to run the ball on every down. It’s hard not to think he also has an excellent supporting cast. Zach Charbonnet would be up here, but being in a running back by committee (RBBC) and a more pass-heavy offense, I wouldn’t say I like it unless they take over that role.
Draft Profile
A lot of talk about this class being good but not great. Bijan and Jahmyr were the elite talents, leading them to be highly drafted. I also like Devon Achane and Roschon Johnson, and Zach Charbonnet was a great prospect.
Result
This draft class is slightly cut and dry compared to last year’s. The top 2-3 RBs are probably the only ones I am drafting, and maybe others I am watching for waivers to see how their situations change.
Players I am Drafting in Redraft in Order
- Bijan Robinson
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Zach Charbonnet (only if benches are deep)
Players I am Monitoring for Waiver Wire In Order
- Devon Achane
- Roschon Johnson
- Kendre Miller
- Tank Bigsby
- Tyjae Spears
- Evan Hull
