EQUATION CONSTRUCTION
I wanted to develop a “formula” to help differentiate between players and help decide how to find the best players when drafting for Redraft leagues. That leads me to concentrate on a few areas for rookie evaluation for redraft leagues that give me a solid chance at finding some players that will help me win some championships. These variables for the formula are Draft Capital, Opportunities, Supporting Cast, and Draft Profile.
Draft Capital – The higher the player is drafted in the NFL Draft, historically, that player is given the most excellent chance of success in the NFL. But, again, this goes for fantasy purposes; these players generally correlate to having the most success in fantasy football.
Opportunities – The NFL has limited snaps and options for players to touch the football (outside the quarterback and center). Players’ health and projected snaps/targets are evaluated here.
Supporting Cast – This is purely subjective, but I feel that some positions (wide receivers and quarterbacks) benefit greatly when they have an excellent supporting cast for rookies, specifically for fantasy.
Draft Profile – Trust your process when you evaluate rookies. If you are high on a rookie but fell in the draft, still believe in their rookie profile. They are the same athletes they were before the draft; don’t let the draft capital completely change your opinion of the player.
2022 Rookie TE Review
Looking at my article last year, I can improve, but I hit for the most part! I called Jelani Woods, who might have success in the later weeks; I mentioned going with Evan Engram instead of these rookies! The one miss was Chigoziem Okonkwo, who finished the highest of the rookies and had some very nice finishes in the second half of the season. We can add that reflection to our 2023 analysis since this draft class has some tight ends.
Draft Capital
Here are the tight ends we can look at in the first three rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft:
We will most likely focus on the first two rounds of Tight Ends, except Brenton Strange, who will not only be buried on the depth chart but was most likely drafted for their upside that may develop into something.
The big focus will be on the first four names: Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, Michael Mayer, and Luke Musgrave. These players are projected to be their top TE on the depth chart, except Mayer. I’d imagine Mayer can eventually beat out Austin Hooper for the starting role. Luke Schoonmaker could also take over the starting role. I would be on the watch for waiver wires rather than looking to draft Schoonmaker.
Opportunities
As a perfect transition to the topic, looking at the tight ends that will be the starters will be key for this position. We know the landscape is rough for this position. Finding some players to start weekly consistently would provide incredible value to our rosters for taking these tight ends at their current average draft positions (ADP). Kincaid, LaPorta, and Musgrave become great later-round fliers if paired with some veterans (if your bench spots allow it).
Supporting Cast
When looking at the coaching staff and quarterbacks for each position, the players that stand out are Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta. Dalton gets to play with Josh Allen. That should be enough to convince us, right? Along with a talented staff, Kincaid is a great option.
Sam LaPorta is also receiving passes from a great quarterback – Jared Goff. The head coach for the Detroit Lions is a former Tight End. Dan Campbell will be a great coach for him and immediately add a threat to this offense.
Michael Mayer and Luke Musgrave both have some question marks in this area. Musgrave starts with Jordan Love, who has shown nothing yet in the NFL. Mayer looks good on paper, but their snaps are what might hurt them. They may be limited in how much they see the field in being a consistent starter in fantasy.
Draft Profile
This NFL draft class had several talented tight ends enter the league. It might be the best TE class we have seen in years. Kincaid is incredibly athletic, along with the other tight ends as well. I have no real issues with any of them as draft prospects; they all will have great NFL careers.
Results
In each part of our formula, Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta are the two that stick out. I think both are good options for the position because of the scarcity and the upside they provide. I would be okay with taking fliers on Luke Musgrave and Michael Mayer, but both seem like better stashes in dynasty leagues. Watch for Luke Schoonmaker as the season progresses; he can win the starting role and be featured by an offense that likes to throw to the position.
