EQUATION CONSTRUCTION
I wanted to develop a “formula” to help differentiate between players and help decide how to find the best players when drafting for Redraft leagues. That leads me to concentrate on a few areas for rookie evaluation for redraft leagues that give me a solid chance at finding some players that will help me win some championships. These variables for the formula are Draft Capital, Opportunities, Supporting Cast, and Draft Profile.
Draft Capital – The higher the player is drafted in the NFL Draft, historically, that player is given the most excellent chance of success in the NFL. But, again, this goes for fantasy purposes; these players generally correlate to having the most success in fantasy football.
Opportunities – The NFL has limited snaps and options for players to touch the football (outside the quarterback and center). Players’ health and projected snaps/targets are evaluated here.
Supporting Cast – This is purely subjective, but I feel that some positions (wide receivers and quarterbacks) benefit greatly when they have an excellent supporting cast for rookies, specifically for fantasy.
Draft Profile – Trust your process when you evaluate rookies. If you are high on a rookie but fell in the draft, still believe in their rookie profile. They are the same athletes they were before the draft; don’t let the draft capital completely change your opinion of the player.
2022 Rookie WR Review
An incredible draft class at the position. I was low on Garett Wilson and Christian Watson last year and learned my lesson. Drake London and Chris Olave were still hits, and players like Jahan Dotson and Alec Pierce had some great weeks. All these players will still have big 2023 seasons, and some added players like Skyy Moore and George Pickens will look to take an even bigger step this year.
Draft Capital
Here are all the wide receivers from the 2023 Draft Class:
There are many names on that list, but to keep it simple for you this year, we can probably focus on the draft’s first three rounds. These names will have the best chance of contributing in Year 1 for their teams. The other names are nice stashes for dynasty football leagues.
Opportunities
This will be the biggest factor for us; targets are earned, and this will be tough for rookies unless they are the only option to throw to. Jordan Addison is starting to look like the second or third option in that Vikings’ offense. Zay Flowers has gotten hype in a potential pass-heavy offense. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) might be the best wide receiver in this group, but he is behind studs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Marvin Mims is the only player on this list that I can almost guarantee will be a top option. Jerry Juedy is hurt and Courtland Sutton hasn’t been great since his injury.
Supporting Cast
The quality of the quarterback and the offense will be the biggest contributing factor for our young wide receivers. Quentin Johnson and Zay Flowers get a boost in this regard, both with talented QBs and pass-heavy offenses. Marvin Mims and JSN both get good QBs as well, but offenses might be more on the balanced side. Jordan Addison is a shining star in this category, as well as Rashee Rice.
Draft Profile
This year, they are a very talented group, with JSN being the “elite” prospect that many believe can dominate defenses for years. But talented wide receivers are going into the sixth round this year, with Puka Nacua, Trey Palmer, and Kayshon Boutte. I don’t think it was a top-heavy class, but some serious gems will come out of this draft class for years.
Results
Keeping it very simple, this equation led to only a handful of WRs that I would take in your redraft leagues in the draft:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Jordan Addison
- Marvin Mims
- Quentin Johnson
- Zay Flowers
There are some players that I would watch as the season progresses to pick up off the waiver wire:
- Rashee Rice
- Jalin Hyatt
- Michael Wilson
- Trey Palmer
- Puka Nacua
