Fantasy Redraft Formula – Rookie QB Edition

Equation Construction

I wanted a way to come up with a “formula” to help differentiate between players and to help decide on how to find the best players for when I am drafting for Redraft leagues. That leads me to concentrate on a few areas for rookie evaluation for redraft leagues that, when combined, give me a solid chance at finding some players that will help me win some championships. These variables for the formula are Draft Capital, Opportunities, Supporting Cast, and Draft Profile.

Draft Capital – The higher the player was drafted in the NFL Draft, historically, that player has been given the greater chance of success in the NFL. But, again, this goes for fantasy purposes; these players generally correlate to having the most success in fantasy football.

Opportunities – There are so many given snaps in the NFL and even more limited options for players to touch the football (outside of the quarterback and center). Players projected to have a healthy snap/target usage and being healthy will be graded here.

Supporting Cast – This is purely subjective, but I feel that some positions (wide receivers and quarterbacks) benefit greatly when they have an excellent supporting cast for rookies, specifically speaking for fantasy. Running backs and tight ends generally aren’t swayed too much from their situations, but it is still good to include them for tiebreakers and one-of cases.

Draft Profile – Trust your process when you evaluate rookies. If you are high on a rookie but fell in the draft, still believe in their rookie profile. They are the same athlete they were before the draft, don’t let the draft capital completely change your opinion on the player.

2021 Rookie QB Review

Plenty of high drafted quarterbacks in the 2021 class had some fantasy impacts. Below is the chart on where they were drafted and how they ranked for their fantasy points per game (fair comparison since not all of them played an equal amount of games). Many people were high on Trey Lance and Justin Fields and got burned, most likely since neither started the season. Out of the full-time starters, Mac Jones is the only one that came close to being a relatively consistent starter but never was going to put up numbers to win a championship. Davis Mills was a nice surprise and looks to have a chance to prove himself among this group in 2022.

Draft Capital

The 2022 NFL Draft made it pretty simple for the Draft Capital variable of our equation. Looking at the quarterbacks, only Kenny Pickett was selected in the first round, and no other quarterback was selected in the NFL Draft until the third round. The exciting aspect kicks in with the three chosen QBs in that round; Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, and Matt Corral. All their situations are similar and vary in their ways. Sam Howell was one quarterback I was exceptionally high on that didn’t get drafted until the fifth round. I loved seeing him go higher, but at least he lands somewhere where he could still potentially end up starting. A 2021 Davis Mills situation for Howell could be available.

Opportunities

This is where the clear path for quarterbacks is for fantasy. Will they be the starting QB for their team? If not, is there a clear path for them to take over at some point? For the 5 quarterbacks I mentioned in the Draft Capital section, they all will most likely not be named starters. Pittsburgh signed Mitchell Trubisky to be the starter, Tennessee is still paying Ryan Tannehill, Atlanta brought in Marcus Mariota, and Carolina has Sam Darnold’s 5th-year option on the books. The fifth QB I mentioned was Sam Howell, and Washington traded for Carson Wentz to be the starter. Matt Corral might have the best chance without an injury if there is a QB competition at training camp. All the others are waiting for an injury or benching for them to take over. We are not drafting these players, most likely because of their situations for redraft. Remember that things change, so you must constantly reevaluate when news comes to light.

Supporting Cast

It is probably the least important to this formula, but I think it should be in the discussion and part of the equation. To step in and produce at a high level for fantasy, quarterbacks must already have several pieces of talent. Quarterbacks like Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis would have ideal situations if they ever get named the starter in the 2022 season. Desmond Ridder might do well, but the Falcons are still expected to struggle this season. Carolina has talent, so Matt Corral could produce if he steps in, and the same goes for Sam Howell.

Draft Profile

Looking at the rookie prospects this year, I was a big fan of Sam Howell and Malik Willis. I still think the other quarterbacks are good as well, but to be honest, none of them are franchise quarterbacks for any team. Pittsburgh thinks differently of me, drafting Kenny Pickett in the first, and they have a little more experience than I do evaluate talent, so go with their judgment. I will be using the Undroppables Rookie Guide to evaluate and use their scores for my formula; you should also know to help give you a leg up on the competition in your home league!

Result

Time to take all our variables and see which quarterbacks we want for our redraft fantasy season. Unless there are significant injuries or changes, it looks like none will be viable for redraft. However, some quarterbacks do step up during the season and could be a great waiver wire addition. Don’t look to draft any of these QBs in your redraft leagues in August.

Please support us on Patreon!