Final Exam is a statistical deep-dive into a select group of prospects from each rookie class. With an analytics-driven approach, an objective breakdown is provided so readers can properly adjust their perspectives from a dynasty lens.
Note: These statistics are current as of December 23, 2019 (before Week 17 games).
Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Quarterbacks
Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Wide Receivers
The 2019 running back class doesn’t hold a candle to the incoming class but there were four RBs that each had a legitimate case to be NFL starters:
- Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders
- Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
- David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
- Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
Each of them had their own question marks along with the potential for NFL success and the debates raged on during the offseason. So how did they fare after year 1? Let’s look at objective statistics and consider their future dynasty outlooks.
Rushing
Josh Jacobs led the pack, starting from Week 1 and never looked back. Running behind a top 3 offensive line per Football Outsiders, the Alabama product churned out 1,150 yards on the ground (4.8 ypc). ?
David Montgomery came in 2nd with 776 yards (3.5 ypc) behind the 31st ranked offensive line.
Devin Singletary was 3rd among these running backs with 775 yards (5.1 ypc) with the 12th ranked offensive line.
Miles Sanders ran for 766 yards (4.5 ypc) behind the 14th ranked offensive line.
Jacobs was the most prolific on the ground, but Singletary was the most efficient as he made the most out of his limited usage.
Receiving
Sanders caught 47 passes for 510 receiving yards. ?
Singletary posted 29 receptions for 194 receiving yards.
The Bears rookie RB was touted as being a strong pass-catcher but Tarik Cohen’s presence limited Montgomery to 25 catches for 185 receiving yards.
Jacobs did not see much work in the passing game for Oakland for 20 receptions for 166 receiving yards.
The Eagles back was in a class of his own when it came to receiving work, more than doubling any other rookie RB’s receiving production.
Total Scrimmage Yards
Jacobs put up an astonishing 1,316 yards on 262 touches, even though he missed 2 games. This was good for 5 yards per touch. ?
Sanders posted 1,276 total scrimmage yards on 217 touches, an average of 5.6 yards per touch. ?
“Motor” Singletary produced 969 yards on only 180 touches (5.4 yards per touch), as he started off with the least opportunity share to start the season.
Montgomery only mustered up 961 yards from scrimmage on 244 total touches for a disappointing 3.9 yards per touch.
Aside from Montgomery, each of the 2019 rookie running backs were able to produce respectable efficiency metrics when their numbers were called.
Touchdowns
Jacobs scored 7 times on the ground, but did not catch any passes in the end zone. ?
Sanders had 4 rush TDs and 2 receiving TDs for a total of 6.
Montgomery had 5 rushing TDs and caught a pass for a score.
With 2 rushing and 2 receiving TDs, Singletary totaled 4 scores in 2019.
Fumbles
Jacobs had only 1 fumble despite touching the rock 262 times. ✊
Sanders and Montgomery both had 2 fumbles but Monty touched the ball 27 more times.
Singletary may have only lost the ball once, but fumbled 4 times on only 151 carries. Sanders had the fumbling question marks during the rookie evaluation process, but Singletary was the one with ball security issues in year 1.
Missed Games/Injuries
Sanders and Montgomery both remained relatively healthy all season and did not miss any games. ⚕️
Singletary missed three games due to a hamstring injury early in the season (Weeks 3-5).
Jacobs missed two games due to a shoulder injury, including Championship Week 16.
Draft Capital
Josh Jacobs has the highest draft capital as he was a first round pick by the Oakland Raiders (24th overall) with the determination to make him the lead dog from day 1. ?
Miles Sanders was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles with the 53rd overall pick in the second round.
The Chicago Bears selected David Montgomery in the third round with the 73rd overall pick.
Devin Singletary went one pick after Montgomery to the Buffalo Bills with the 74th overall pick.
Fantasy Points Scored (PPR)
Miles Sanders finishes as the top rookie RB with 210.6 points (14 ppg), good for RB13 in PPR formats. ?
Jacobs ranks as the RB19 with 191.6 points (14.7 ppg).
Montgomery finishes as RB24 with 153.1 points (10.2 ppg).
Singletary posted 142.1 points (12.9 ppg) to finish as the RB28.
Grades
* This is only a one-year sample size, but we can extract some information from what we’ve seen and make adjustments this offseason.
Josh Jacobs– Strong performer with potential upside for elite production if he can get the passing work. The main concern around the (likely) Offensive Rookie of the Year remains his durability and ability to play a full 16 games. The Raiders also have several question marks, including at the QB position and a lack of receiving weapons. The Oakland offensive line was a top-ranked unit in 2019 but Richie Incognito, the 15th ranked offensive lineman by PFF, hits free agency. And even though Incognito is known for his pass blocking prowess, he was a critical part of the Raiders’ success at the line of scrimmage. Jalen Richard, who took most of the third-down work, also hits unrestricted free agency this offseason. If Richard departs, then Jacobs may be asked to step up in pass protection and take a true workhorse role in 2020. If everything falls into place, Jacobs has top 5 RB potential is well within his range of outcomes.
Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?
Miles Sanders – League-winning upside was unlocked in his rookie year, vaulting him up dynasty rankings and cementing him as this year’s value pick when it comes to rookie RBs. He has continued to improve in pass protection and running between the tackles on an offense that was mediocre at best. The Eagles lacked receivers which likely helped Sanders see more targets, but regardless his playmaking ability was on full display this season. On the downside, the Eagles rookie had trouble running between the tackles early in the season, often missing wide-open gaps and missing opportunities for chunk gains. Sanders’ ability to hold onto the ball has been questioned and he ended up fumbling twice this season. But as the season wore on and his opportunities increased, Sanders stepped up and made plays week in and week out and he did not fumble after his midseason mishaps. Although it remains to be seen, Sanders has earned his right to be the incumbent 3-down workhorse for the Eagles heading into 2020. With draft capital, creative usage and an improved offense working in his favor, Sanders will be a high-end RB2 heading into next season with the top 10 RB upside.
Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ✅✅
Final Grade – ?
David Montgomery – Lack of speed, burst, and overall game-breaking ability was considered (especially by the analytics community) to be an indictment to his chances at NFL success and 2019 only supported these notions. Monty had only one game over 100 scrimmage yards. The Bears look like they have no idea what they’re doing in the front office or from the sidelines when it comes to offense. Chicago has so much invested in the average-at-best Mitchell Trubisky that bailing on him might not be an option even if Cam Newton becomes available this offseason. Then there the questions with the 31st ranked offensive line and Matt Nagy’s questionable playcalling. Montgomery is a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 in 2020 and will likely be stuck in the top 30 conversation for the foreseeable future with Tarik Cohen, and even Anthony Miller, limiting pass-catching upside. In fact, I do not like his long-term outlook given that by the time Chicago figures things out, Montgomery will have wasted 3-5 years in a bad situation only to face a regime change and rebuild. If you can sell Montgomery for a late 2020 1st, you pull the trigger immediately.
Talent ❔
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ?
Devin Singletary – A non-stop “motor” and ability to keep his legs churning to grind through tackles looks to be the perfect complement to the Bills’ Josh Allen. Although Singletary was stuck in neutral behind the ageless Frank Gore, it looks as though the Florida Atlantic alum will be in the driver’s seat heading into next season. The Bills are making the playoffs for the 2nd time in three years and the future is starting to brighten up for the Bills Mafia. With the team trending up and the Patriots looking more mortal than ever, the Bills will likely look to add to their offensive line and receiving personnel which will take pressure off the front and giving Singletary more room to charge downhill. Singletary is a low-end RB2 with promise, but his lack of receiving work currently caps his ceiling.
Talent – ✅
Situation – ❔
Final Grade – ?
