On March 16, 2020, the NFL world was shocked when Bill O’Brien, the Texans GM, traded Deandre Hopkins to Arizona for David Johnson, a second and a fourth-round pick. Inarguably, this is one of the worst trades in recent memory, as Deandre Hopkins was an unquestioned top 3 receiver in the league and only 27 years old. In return, the Texans received an aging 28-year old David Johnson with a horrendous contract – 2 years left on a 3 year, $39 million extension. Johnson will likely not be the Texans’ workhorse running back, as 30 years old is a threshold that few quality starters pass and succeed once crossed. Rumors have swirled claiming that Hopkins wanted to a new contract, but nevertheless this was not near the yield that the Texans could have received for him. In comparison, Stefon Diggs (and a seventh-rounder) fetched a first, fourth, fifth, and sixth-round pick just a few days later. Two seasons ago, Amari Cooper was traded for a first-round pick, despite only having one year left on his deal. Everyone in the NFL knew that the Cardinals were desperately trying to give DJ away, not only because of his contract but the fact that they tendered Kenyan Drake as well, and this should have diminished Johnson’s value to nearly nothing. Regardless of the one-sided nature of this deal, there are still massive fantasy football impacts for both teams, and let’s begin by breaking down the Cardinals and how they will be impacted.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray instantly sees a massive boost to his short term and long term value. He now has one of the great WR corps in the league, with Deandre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, and Christian Kirk rounding out their top three WRs. With their tendencies to run four WR sets, second years like KeeSean Johnson will also be on the field frequently. Kyler is now viewed in the dynasty community as a top-3 QB, one that can be dominant for years to come. Hopkins commands double coverage down the field, and this can help with Kyler’s rushing by spreading defenders across the field, opening up rushing lanes. His passing numbers will improve with the addition of one of the premier WRs in the NFL, and the impact will be especially felt in the redzone. Arizona was bottom 5 in the league in redzone touchdown percentage at 45.28%, and the addition of one of the best redzone options in the NFL will greatly improve the offense’s effectiveness in this area. Deandre Hopkins was ranked by Lineups as the second most effective redzone receiver in the NFL last year, with a redzone rating of 97. Kyler is one of the largest beneficiaries of this trade.
Kenyan Drake
Kenyan Drake is another beneficiary of this trade as it practically guarantees him a full, workhorse workload for the upcoming season. Drake was electric after his trade to the Cardinals, scoring 8 touchdowns in 8 games played and averaging over 100 multi-purpose yards per game. Drake has a 3-down skillset, excelling as both a rusher and pass-catcher. David Johnson was projected by many to be used as a change of pace receiving back, and his departure gives Drake the reins to this backfield. The only other running back of note on the roster is Chase Edmonds, also a proficient pass catcher, but his role is likely going to be as a capable backup. Drake’s value in dynasty and redraft skyrocketed, and although he is 26 years old, he has only carried the ball 456 times in his whole career. This translates to a longer period of quality performance in the NFL and is a positive indicator for his dynasty value. In redraft, his draft position will likely be as a low-end RB1.
Deandre Hopkins
Hopkins goes from an ideal situation to another great situation, however, uncertainty adds risk, and this is an overall negative move for his value. In Houston, he was the unquestioned alpha, receiving 150-192 targets each year since 2015 from Deshaun Watson, one of the best young QBs in the NFL. On the Cardinals, his targets will likely drop considering their usage of 4 WR sets and the inevitable connection issues between Kyler and Hop. Despite preseason promises of nearly 90 plays per game by the Cardinals, they only averaged 62.5 plays per game last year, ranking 21st in the NFL. In comparison, the Texans were 12th, so the pace argument sides with Houston. Despite this, Hopkins only drops a few spots in dynasty and still should be treated as a top-5 WR, however, in redraft he may finish below that.
The other WRs (Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, Keesean Johnson, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler)
Larry Fitzgerald now faces more competition for targets and is now a bye-week fill-in candidate as opposed to a starter. His ceiling is a lot lower now.
Christian Kirk also faces competition for targets and is the WR 2/3 for the offense this year, and the WR2 on that team for the longer term. He now has a lower ceiling, however, avoids facing number one cornerback coverage in the near future, something that Kirk was not ready for.
KeeSean Johnson is now fighting to keep the WR4 role, and has a heavily capped ceiling. He is likely irrelevant for redraft and nothing more than a late-round flier in dynasty.
Andy Isabella was almost exclusively a slot receiver, and this move will push Christian Kirk to play in the slot more often in four WR sets with Fitzgerald in the other slot, adding more competition for playing time. This relegates Isabella to a speculative flier in dynasty and irrelevance for redraft.
Unfortunately, Hakeem Butler seems buried in this depth chart and likely needs to find a new home in order to return on the hopes that we had for him coming out of college. Very late flier in dynasty and can be neglected in redraft.
Houston Texans
Deshaun Watson
Deshaun’s value, unfortunately, takes a large hit from this trade. Watson is one of the best young QBs in the NFL, electric with both his passing and rushing ability. He is still a top 10 QB in dynasty based on his age and talent, however, he has fallen from his previous position of QB 3. His remaining WRs are not enough for him to sustain his fantasy performances from the past. Will Fuller, while extremely talented, is frequently injured, playing in 42/64 games in his career and exiting some of those with injuries. Kenny Stills is a solid starter, but is more of a WR 3 type for a team. Keke Coutee, while many thought last year could have been a pseudo-breakout year for him, was buried in the depth chart by Bill O’Brien and seems to be struggling to find any playing time. Although Watson gains a great pass catcher in David Johnson, he has not historically targeted running backs heavily despite having capable pass-catchers like Duke Johnson. Overall, a very negative move for Watson.
David Johnson
David Johnson is arguably the biggest winner of this trade. He is now extremely relevant for fantasy and likely will be drafted as a fringe RB 1 next year in redraft leagues. David Johnson is now the lead back in Houston, and this is ensured by the massive amount that they gave up to get him. David Johnson’s rushing has noticeably declined, as shown by his yards per carry, 3.6 and 3.7 for 2018 and 2019 respectively. His strength is in his pass-catching, which is still elite for a running back. His yards per target was the second-highest of his career last year, at 7.9 yards/target. Although the Texans generally don’t utilize pass-catching backs to their fullest extent, nevertheless this is a massive upgrade considering that he is guaranteed to be the lead back in that backfield. His risk is due to injury history and how he has shown his age; at 28 years old he has shown a significant decline in rushing productivity.
The other WRs (Will Fuller, Kenny Stills)
In my opinion, Will Fuller is someone whose value should drop due to this trade. Fuller will now likely face the best corners from the other team, and this will hurt his production and efficiency. Fuller relies on long-distance targets that can create huge plays, however, he does not fit the mold to handle a Hopkins level workload in terms of targets. The vacated targets are more likely to be distributed evenly amongst the current WR core and any WRs that they bring in through free agency or the draft.
Kenny Stills is a beneficiary of the Deandre Hopkins trade as he will receive more targets from Deshaun Watson. He should step into a possession WR role unless they address that need in the draft.
Looking Forward
As we advance into the draft and the 2020-2021 season, both teams have completely changed for both real and fantasy football. Both teams have young quarterbacks that have strong career outlooks, and both are QB1s for dynasty. This will go down as one of the worst trades in recent memory for the Texans, however it accelerates Arizona’s progression so that they can draft for needs other than WR, such as defense and offensive line. The Texans will likely address WR with one of their eight picks, although 3 are seventh rounders. Keep in mind these changes in your fantasy drafts next season!
