We all saw the 2020 NFL Draft. By now you’ve heard about 1st round pick Jordan Love and the lack of WRs drafted with the Packers’ 9 draft picks. You’ll hear about how this will cause the Pack to struggle this year, and you’ve probably heard Rodgers will want to leave after this year. It’s becoming a tired story. Truth is, no one outside of the Packers’ front office has any clue on what their plan is. Below we will take a deeper look into the potential overlooked Packers players for fantasy football in 2020.
Offense: An Overview
The Packers brought in Matt LaFleur as their Head Coach in 2019. LaFleur turned a 6-9-1 team into a contending 13-3 team. This Packers team also went 9-1 in one score games in 2019. Whether that regresses slightly in 2020 or not, the team showed they can compete with almost anyone (besides the 49ers apparently.)
Skeptics of the team are focused on the regression of these one score games. Yet those same people forget that many teams see an improvement within year two of a new offensive system. Both Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, who are talented and cerebral players, were on record most of year one saying they were still adjusting to the playbook. That won’t be the case this year. This division will still run through Green Bay.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers
Everyone is fading Rodgers after his up-and-down fantasy year which contained little to no consistency. The future Hall of Famer put up 4,002 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, landing him as the QB9 overall. Yet if you had him week to week in 2019, you were likely frustrated as he only put up 5 QB1 weeks all season.
That being said, I do anticipate better consistency for the former fantasy must-have. Familiarity with the new system and having Adams healthy for the full year should improve some of the passing game with week to week consistency. Yet the new regime in Green Bay seems determined to run the ball. This takes away from the higher TD numbers we are used to seeing Rodgers put up. That fact alone keeps Rodgers away from the top options and more in the QB9-QB15 range.
Rodgers is going around QB12/QB13 in drafts currently, which is a fair value as it currently stands. With what is rated the 3rd easiest schedule among QBs for 2020, I believe Rodgers is a great later option in redraft, especially if you can get him after the 8th round. Rodgers is a rock solid streaming option within redraft, but he no longer holds the every-week plug and play value. Within superflex dynasty, A-Rod is more of a QB2 option, but holds high upside each and every week. He should only be rostered on contending teams.
Jordan Love
Love was the Packers 1st round selection in 2020 and caught many off guard. The jury is still out on the rookie QB, but in all honesty Love won’t likely see the field for two years at the very least. If it wasn’t clear enough, he’s an absolute avoid in redraft. For dynasty he is a hold or taxi spot.
Running Back
Aaron Jones
Once again, another Packer player being faded by many analysts out there, but in this case I think the take is incorrect, especially for the 2020 season. The one screaming comment you will consistently see against Jones is that his TDs will regress heavily from the league leading 19 TDs he put up in 2019. The counter, even taking away 11 of his 19 TDs, Aaron Jones would have still been a top 10 RB in 2019.
There are those that will point to his low weeks as a flaw. Yet Aaron Jones was one of the best scoring RBs in fantasy week over week. Of the fantasy relevant weeks, (1-16) Jones finished inside the top 24 on 10 occasions. Something only 12 RBs in the NFL were able to match or do better. Furthermore, 8 of these occasions were RB1 weeks (top 12), which only 4 RBs were able to do last season. Those RBs were CMC, Henry, Zeke, and Jones.
Despite this, Jones ADP is still currently around RB13. This has him going in the late 2nd or early 3rd round, and going after guys like Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, and Austin Ekeler. Personally, I’ll take Jones over at least 2 of those 3. He’s a great value in redraft formats that I will be targeting, depending how the board falls. Jones is fairly cheap in dynasty as well with the fear of new rookie A.J. Dillon. Dillon and Jones can coexist in this offense. Even if Jones doesn’t earn an extension in Green Bay, I believe he will land a starting job elsewhere easily, so his value should carry over.
A.J. Dillon
With the selection of the Boston College running back, Green Bay’s 2nd round draft pick in the 2020 NFL draft was nearly as surprising as its first. I believe there is a lot to be excited about with Dillon, not only due to talent, but also due to opportunity. The more the Packers cap situation shapes up for next year, the more it looks like Jones may be lining up at RB elsewhere. With Kenny Clark recently signing a massive extension, and David Bakhtiari, Kevin King, and Aaron Jones waiting to get theirs as well before 2021, it seems as though Jones may be the odd man out towards getting an extension.
Enter A.J. Dillon, who is an absolute monster of a man! So much so that the coach himself was caught off guard when the rookie entered training camp.
Matt LaFleur: "AJ Dillon, he has got some massive legs. We have not seen a running back built like that, not in my career that I've been around."
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) August 15, 2020
Massive words for a coach that worked directly with Derrick Henry! Yet it isn’t just the build, he has the talent as well. He demonstrated this in college, putting up 4,382 total rushing yards and 38 TDs in his 3 seasons at Boston College. As you can imagine, the man is a problem to take down. Dillon saw the second most ‘Yards after Contact’ in all of college football from 2017-2019 with 2,980 yards, trailing only Jonathan Taylor. He also was a monster at forcing missed tackles.
Most forced missed tackles among ACC RBs in the last three seasons
➤ AJ Dillon, BC – 198
➤ Travis Etienne, Clemson – 173
➤ Cam Akers, FSU – 144
➤ Michael Carter, UNC – 99 pic.twitter.com/8n1rOQpya4— PFF College (@PFF_College) July 14, 2020
Dillon has me more excited each second I spend looking into to him. In dynasty leagues, I would highly recommend getting him now in hopes of solid red zone work, as well as the potential #1 RB role in Green Bay starting in 2021. In redraft, you likely won’t be rostering Dillon, but keep an eye out for his touches and red zone looks early because he may be a great waiver add.
Jamaal Williams
Jamaal Williams is the player I anticipate to be hurt the most by the Dillon addition. The ground-and-pound, short yardage work Williams saw in third-and-short situations will likely go Dillon’s way. Also, with both Jones and Williams needing an extension after this year, Williams will likely be a lower priority to be retained. I truly believe Jamaal Williams’ fantasy relevance will near zero after this season. I wouldn’t roster him in redraft, and if you currently roster him in dynasty, I would try and get a late pick ASAP, before it’s too late (it may already be).
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams
Davante Adams is a top 5 WR that still doesn’t get enough love from many casual fans. Lots of fans who only look at the end of the year finishes will look at Adams and judge him due to his lack of 1,000 yard seasons, but that surface level information is what continually blinds many. Adams is actually one of my favorite options this year to finish as the WR1 overall.
The list of WRs who have 4,000 rec yards and 40 rec TD since 2016:
– Davante Adams
That's the list. pic.twitter.com/H33al9WGIq
— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) July 10, 2020
Adams has been a consistent stud when it comes generating fantasy points. Adams’ fantasy points per game finishes among wide receivers have been as follows over the last 4 years: 2016- 9th; 2017- 6th; 2018- 1st; 2019- 6th
With little competition on the roster, I imagine Adams will be among league leaders in targets. Also, as we know, Adams is a red zone monster, so scoring opportunities will present themselves. Adams is a great option for those contending in dynasty. I believe he’s being undervalued at the moment, so it may not hurt just to check in with the owner on their asking price. Of course he is a top option in redraft as well.
Allen Lazard
Allen Lazard came into his own within the 2019 season. With no new rookies added to the roster, Lazard and the other younger WRs will be expected to contribute more in 2020, if the team is to remain competitive. Lazard is expected to step up into the #2 WR role, alongside Adams in 12 personnel sets. He will likely see the most opportunities early, so if I am taking a shot on Packers late-round WR options, he is the one I want. Not only can Lazard run block extremely well for a WR, but he’s great among single man coverage.
Highest receiving grade when targeted vs. single coverage in 2019
1. Mecole Hardman
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Chris Godwin
4. Allen Lazard pic.twitter.com/J5jb9KgxJP— PFF (@PFF) July 7, 2020
Take a shot on Lazard in both redraft and dynasty, it’s honestly a minimal cost with a potential high reward.
Equanimeous St. Brown
The youngest of the wideouts on the Green Bay roster, EQ missed all of the 2019 season with injury. Yet LaFleur seems to mention him a lot when referring to players he’s expecting to take on a much bigger role. I believe EQ will take on a large share of the slot role we saw Geronimo Allison play last year. He will share this with MVS (more below) & Jace Sternberger, and will likely serve as the #3 WR on the roster. St. Brown will likely have little to no redraft value and is a dynasty stash with hope for relevance.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
2020 will likely serve as the last chance for Marquez Valdes-Scantling to serve a key role on the Packers roster. If he doesn’t manage to leave an impact, odds are he will need to find a home elsewhere. MVS has been the big play threat for the Packers over the last 2 years, but many of these opportunities have turned into incompletions. He has no value in redraft and is a stash at best in dynasty, though I’m not really interested in rostering him at this point. He’s also the WR I have heard the least about this offseason from LaFleur or Rodgers.
Tight End
Jace Sternberger
Jace Sternberger is the only tight end worth rostering in fantasy from this Green Bay squad. He was drafted as a 3rd round pick in the 2019 NFL draft. In his rookie year, he missed a large portion of the season due to injury. There were high hopes for the tight end’s receiving abilities, and that will likely be his focus in 2020 as well. The Packers will use Sternberger in a similar fashion to Jimmy Graham as a deep threat and slot option. Graham had seen the 5th-most deep targets in the NFL in 2019, offering a potential high upside for the budding Sternberger.
LaFleur stems from the Shanahan offensive scheme, and you can see he’s trending his roster build to a similar style. With that in mind, Sternberger is a great dynasty buy and stash for all rosters, as the cost is minimal and the opportunity may be large. If the wide receivers continue to underperform, Sternberger’s role could be larger than anticipated, as he could serve as the #2 pass catching option.
Final Thoughts
This Packers team has some very interesting pieces for immediate success and also a few potential younger pieces for the future. I believe LaFleur’s system will continue to produce for us in fantasy. It’s simply a matter of getting these key pieces early and cheap before they gain more traction.
For more NFC North coverage, check out our breakdowns of the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears.
