Is Josh Jacobs a lock to be an RB1?
Josh Jacobs is one of “my guys,” but he finished his great rookie year as RB21 in PPR formats. With a 2020 @TheUndroppables consensus ranking of RB8, some are questioning if he can get the target volume needed to hit 385 touches in order to break into RB1 status. I dive into that in this article, because we’ve all seen what he can do on the field, but can he beat the numbers game for PPR leagues?
Background
First, a word about 385 touches. Per @BpoFSU research, RB12s and higher since 1992 scored on average at least 221.2 fantasy points. At the same time, no RB has ever received less than 385 touches and not scored at least 221.2 points. For this article, that makes 385 touches the threshold to hitting RB1 category on average in any given year. If an RB gets at least 385 touches, you can lock them in as a PPR RB1. But the real question is, can Josh Jacobs do it this year, and consistently throughout his career? Can he be a perennial PPR RB1 type player? While we can’t predict the future, let’s focus on 2020 and redraft leagues for this analysis.
We’ve seen what Jacobs can do on the ground. He ran his way to 1,150 yards last year, the most rushing yards by a #Raiders rookie ever. Jacobs also earned the @PFF most elusive rusher title with 69 missed tackles forced. This is an amazing accomplishment for a rookie, especially beating out guys like Derrick Henry, Chris Carson, and Nick Chubb. Jacobs worked for every down he gained as you can see in this highlight reel below of him forcing missed tackles. He forced so many missed tackles by using quick shake steps, head fakes, and consistently moving up field, working his way to 53 first downs from rushing attempts.
The most elusive RB in 2019 per @PFF?@iAM_JoshJacobs. 😤 pic.twitter.com/siV7vQyqLN
— NFL (@NFL) May 21, 2020
Jacobs came in 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting due to his impressive rushing performance that came off of just 242 rushes and 20 receptions (262 total touches), falling 123 touches short of the 385 threshold. However, he missed 3 games games due to a shoulder injury. If he played all 16 games, we could assume 55 more rushes at the same pace of 18.6 rushes/game and 4 more receptions (1.25/game). Which would have put him at 321 total touches, still 64 short of 385. So where will those touches come from?
Review
We can’t expect Jacobs to just all of a sudden get an extra 64 receptions to reach 385 touches, which would put him at a total of 84 receptions on the year. It’s not probable with the competition for targets already on the team. And it’s less likely because that’s not Jacobs’ or the offense’s style to feed their #1 RB with a ton of targets. At Alabama, his reception totals each year were 14, 14, and 20. While he can catch, being that pass catching RB has never been part of his game. Since he was already #4 in rushes per game, we can only hope for a small bump in rushes and a lot more receptions.
While Jacobs’ rushes per game is already top 5, his total rushes last year was 14th overall with 242 in 13 games. If he increases his rushes to last year’s pace and hits ~315 rushes, that puts him only behind Derrick Henry (386) and ahead of Ezekiel Elliot (301) in rushing attempts. Again, it’s not very likely to happen. So…more receptions! But increasing receptions from 20 to upwards of 85, which puts him in Kamara territory, is a tall order in itself. The odds just keep looking worse. But something has to be done to increase his targets per game of 2.2 from last year. The Raiders need more designed pass plays for him.
I bring up the designed plays because Carr (in)famously missed Jacobs on a wide open check & release route against the Chiefs last year when the main reads in the progression were covered and blocking broke down. This is one area where targets can drastically increase. Use Jacobs as the safety valve! And if not, then design more routes for him where he is the 1st or 2nd target in Carr’s progression of reads. A player of this caliber needs to be used in the passing game more.
Josh Jacobs would really, really like Carr to throw him the football. pic.twitter.com/NYIGhTPIvj
— Alex Kozora (@Alex_Kozora) December 1, 2019
Discussion
As I did the research and tested my hypothesis of Jacobs as a PPR RB1 lock, one thing I couldn’t figure out is why he’s not more involved in the passing game. Besides his catching ability, he can also block, (as seen below) stonewalling the linebacker on a check and release route, getting up field quick after catching the pass, and juking the drop end for a first down. Something he did over and over again: get first downs on yards after catch. However, he didn’t do it effectively enough or often enough to crack the top 20 in YAC per NBC sports. This is another area of improvement that comes with target volume.
Again, Jacobs can catch and is dynamic with the ball in his hands. On this swing route below, he knows the defender is there, but he secures the catch, immediately looks up field, and breaks the Will LB’s ankles, earning another first down with YAC.
Here’s the same swing route to the other direction. Eyes on the QB, secures the catch, immediate up field burst, this time leaving the CB grabbing his jock strap with a subtle jab step inside and using his speed to separate from Melvin Ingram.
He can run, catch, and block. So why isn’t he an instant lock for a PPR RB1? Because of those 385 touches. Sure, he can hit RB1 status with more Touchdowns or other RBs not earning enough points to outscore him, but it’s a numbers game to get to 221 points or at least hit the 385 touches needed to guarantee a top-12 season. Assuming Jacobs hits at least 300 rushes and also catches the average number of receptions for a top-12 RB, (last year it was 73) he’ll still be short by 12 touches. Still a great finish, but no guarantee of an RB1 season.
So does Josh Jacobs actually have a path to RB1 status, or have we been over-hyping him up all offseason because of his potential, skill set, and opportunity? He can either break the model for the 385 touches or with more TDs than 14 last year; another tall order to the list. Or, he can all of a sudden morph into Alvin Kamara. The research for this article took me down a path I didn’t expect, as I had Jacobs as a sure thing for a top-12 RB finish in PPR leagues for 2020. But he has a tough road ahead of him to hit RB1 status, needing a significant increase in targets and TDs. BUT, if he can pace what he did in Raiders wins last year he’ll hit that threshold.
Josh Jacobs in 19’ #Raiders wins:
6 Games
• 24.2 Touches/gm
• 22.2 DK Pts/gm
• 19.5 FD Pts/gm
• Scored all 7 of his TDsLV favored by 2.5 vs CAR in W1pic.twitter.com/A4By80j4tV
— Adam Nessel (@AdamNessel) September 4, 2020
Conclusion
It’s safe to predict that Jacobs will be a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside this year. Even with the struggle to increase his target share with the other pass catchers on the team, Jacobs will be the featured back. While we can’t expect the Raiders’ game plan to drastically change, they need to tweak it in order to get the ball into the hands of one of their best playmakers. Jacobs is young and hungry, and with the relatively short career span of RBs in the NFL, the Raiders need to ride Josh into the sunset. But, given his tough path to fantasy success, we may want to pump the breaks on Jacobs being a 100% sure thing. With the information presented in this article, everyone should plan accordingly for the season and plug him into #DFS lineups when the Raiders will win.
Special thanks go out to the Undroppables squad of @BpoFSU for providing excellent research for this article and @Jman_FF for making the gifs. Make sure you check our weekly rankings updated all-season long and add our SleeperHQ channel to get exclusive access to all The Undroppables.
