2023 Projected Numbers
- 634 Team Pass Attempts, 4561 Pass Yards
- 588 Routes (94% Route Rate)
- 147 Targets, 89 Receptions (68% Catch Rate)
- 1299 Yards
- 8 TDs
Efficiency
On the surface, the start of Jerry Jeudy’s NFL career has been underwhelming based on his prospect profile coming into the NFL. However, Jeudy quietly had a 3rd-year breakout this past season. With Russell Wilson under center, Jeudy saw his Yards per Route Run jump from 1.85 to 2.18 in 2022, an 18% increase, which was good for 12th in the NFL. He did this while still commanding a high share of targets, with 0.22 targets per route run, and a 20% target share overall.
Jeudy finished as WR25 on a PPG basis, albeit he missed 2 full games due to injury and had games (Houston & Tennessee) where he ran 5 routes and 1 route. Excluding those games from the sample would bring Jeudy to 15.54 PPG, which would have resulted as the WR12 in PPG. Jeudy also only ran 10 routes against the Ravens in Week 13, which dragged this number down further. Of course, all other receivers in the NFL dealt with injuries as well in 2022, however, a fully healthy season could put Jeudy as a backend WR1 in fantasy.
Touchdown Regression
The Broncos finished the 2022 season ranked 16th in the NFL in pass attempts, and 15th in yards per game. Despite this, they finished 23rd in Passing Touchdowns with 18. For context, the Bears, who passed the 377 times in 2022, finished with 19.
If the Broncos pass the ball at a similar rate, it is reasonable to project a regression to a more reasonable Touchdown rate, which would really boost Jeudy’s production. The Broncos also finished ranked 14th in Pass Rate Over Expected, with a rate of -2.1%, meaning that the Broncos actually passed the ball less than they were expected to in 2022 based on down, distance, and game script. With changes on the coaching staff, I believe this will not be the case moving forward.
Coaching Changes
The Broncos have moved on from Nathaniel Hackett after just one season with the team. Hackett was seen as an Offensive-minded coach, and should have been a major boost to the passing attack. However, Hackett’s scheme typically hasn’t been lucrative for Fantasy Points. According to Pro Football Reference, Hackett’s offenses have resulted in the 50 percentile for Passing Attempts, and 47 percentile for Passing Yards. Throughout his career, he has been slightly more run-heavy despite Aaron Rodgers being his Quarterback for 3 of the 8 seasons as an Offensive Coordinator. Joe Lombardi, previously the Chargers OC, has taken over the reins and should be a huge positive for Jeudy.
In his four seasons as an Offensive Coordinator, his teams have attempted passes at a 88 percentile clip, while being in the 83rd percentile in passing yards. Both a big improvement from Hackett. The Chargers also ranked 5th in Pass Rate Over Expected in 2022, with a 4.6% mark. To complement this, Sean Payton has taken over as Head Coach. Looking at OSRS (Offensive Simple Rating System: A metric that takes into account strength of schedule, and point differential to help determine a score of efficiency), the median score of Sean Payton’s 15 seasons was 5 points per game above NFL league average, with only 1 season of below average offense.
The combination of Lombardi and Payton should lead to a lucrative passing environment in Denver, especially with the health of Javonte Williams up in the air for the start of the season, and no effort to bring in another RB other than Samaje Perine this offseason. The Broncos also traded up for Marvin Mims in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft, which may be another sign of the Broncos Offensive Philosophy moving forward.
Valuation
According to my valuation model, Jeudy is currently undervalued based on Keep Trade Cut Prices. KTC has a current value of 4415. The 13.53 PPG from 2022 spits out a fair value of 4668, a 253 point difference. However, if you use the 15.54 value from above which excludes games where he ran less than 5 routes due to injury, he would be worth 5427, a 1012 point difference.
If you use my projected value for 2023 which includes a slight uptick in pass volume, you get 15.71 PPG, which would be worth 5491 on KTC, a 1076 point difference. That value would place him at Dynasty WR 10, between Tee Higgins and Tyreek Hill. Currently, Jeudy is WR24 on KTC. No matter how you slice it, Jerry Jeudy is currently undervalued based on KTC Values and makes him a major buy, as long as you can acquire him at that cost. Here are some examples of trades that I have recently pushed through to acquire him.
