Please welcome our newest Senior Film Analyst + Ranker, Tommy Mo, to The Undroppables! Tommy brings us the FINAL offseason breakdown for 2020, appropriately a breakdown of his favorite team…
The final offseason breakdown of the AFC West leaves us with the Las Vegas Raiders, the team everyone loves to hate. In 2020, everyone will learn to love them for fantasy purposes, as the Silver & Black have loaded up on offense with some exceptional young talent. Moving on from the Antonio Brown debacle of 2019, they took a handful of 1st and 3rd Round picks in the Draft to reload on offense.
Offseason Moves
Shocking to some, the Raiders selected Henry Ruggs, III out of Alabama with the 12th overall pick and the first WR off the board. They then took back-to-back playmakers in the 3rd Round with Lynn Bowden, Jr. (Kentucky) at 80th overall, and Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) at 81st overall. While some may question passing on Lamb/Jeudy and drafting consecutive skill players, these picks allowed Jon Gruden to take one step closer to meeting his goal of the best WR corps in the NFL. They also added Jason Witten and Marcus Mariota in free agency to bring in a veteran presence and a quality backup for Carr.
The Raiders then focused their sights on the defense. They drafted Damon Arnette 19th overall, as GM Mike Mayock saw the overlooked talent in the Ohio State counterpart to Jeff Okudah. Arnette brings youth and a versatile coverage game to a rebuilding Raiders secondary. The other major area of need for the team was the LB group that has struggled in the past but will struggle no more. They signed Cory Littleton from the Rams as a big free agent splash, followed by Nick Kwiatkoski from the Bears. The Raiders now have two hitters who can play every down and cover the entire field, which is exactly what you want from the prototypical NFL linebacker.
The Raiders weren’t done with acquisitions though. They brought in Maliek Collins from the Cowboys to add a physical presence to the interior defensive line, and Carl Nassib to add depth to the Edge. After the Eli Apple signing fell through, they went back to the well to grab Prince Amukamara, who will start opposite 2nd-year CB Trayvon Mullen. While this is a fantasy football article, it’s important to pay attention to the improvement on the defense as more opportunities for the offense will translate to more fantasy points.
In this next section, I’ll take a closer look at each offensive position group and give you my seasonal outlook for fantasy relevant players.
Quarterback
Derek Carr
If there’s any one player hated the most on the most-hated team in the NFL, it’s Derek Carr. He’s been criticized for his 39-55 win/loss record (18th among active QBs), his injury history (back and ankle fractures), his average completed air yards of 4.9, and his lack of aggressiveness (11.7%). At the same time, he’s compiled the following stats:
- #2 in true completion percentage of 78.6% (playerprofiler.com)
- 2nd highest expected completion percentage (NextGenStats)
- 2nd most accurate passer rating per PFF
- 2nd highest passing grade when targeting WRs in the red zone.
Hating on Derek Carr is basically like hating on Drew Brees, because he doesn’t win as many games and isn’t as consistent. But it’s entirely understandable, as he’s been ranked middle of the pack for his entire career and is on the verge of losing his job if he doesn’t produce this year. Still, Carr takes care of the ball; he went 10 straight weeks last season without an interception. Carr might be a fantasy free agent in standard 1QB leagues, but he’s a hell of a QB2 in a Superflex or 2QB league that can be drafted in the later rounds with an Undroppables ADP of 82.
Highest PFF passing grade when targeting WRs in the red zone last season:
1. Drew Brees – 89.3
2. Derek Carr – 84.0
3. Daniel Jones – 79.3
4. Matthew Stafford – 78.6 pic.twitter.com/r5qPsM5Zj0— PFF (@PFF) July 3, 2020
Marcus Mariota
All things are looking up for Carr in 2020, but he needs to produce in order to keep the new addition of Marcus Mariota at bay. While Mariota brings a new facet to the offense, he’s not competing for a starting role unless Carr seriously tanks or gets hurt. At worst case, he’s one of the best backups in the league who should be rostered in deep 2 or 3 QB leagues as a backup to Carr. We’ve all seen what Marcus can do with his legs and how well he can pass when he’s got a clean pocket around him, but I don’t foresee much fantasy relevance for the throwin’ Samoan this season.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs had a real shot at winning Rookie of the Year last year, falling just behind Kyler Murray. He came up short despite amassing 242 rushing attempts for 1,150 yards and 7 TDs, adding 20 receptions for 166 yards. Rushing wise, he was #8 overall in the league, but due to a lack of targets and missing 2 games, he finished the season as RB21 in PPR formats (FantasyPros). His rushing prowess and expected increase in targets has vaulted Jacobs to RB8 in both Dynasty and Redraft rankings this year. This is exactly the right tier for Jacobs who has the skill set to crack top 5 with a significant increase in targets. One of the main reasons for Jacobs’ early success, besides a great O-Line, is his NFL-best ability to elude tackles. Per PFF, he was the most elusive RB in 2019 with the most forced missed tackles with 69. Jacobs will continue to lead the Raiders backfield and carry the load in Gruden’s “old-school” offense, making him a perennial RB1-type for the foreseeable future.
The most elusive RB in 2019 per @PFF?@iAM_JoshJacobs. 😤 pic.twitter.com/siV7vQyqLN
— NFL (@NFL) May 21, 2020
But wait! What about those other guys in the backfield? Won’t they take away touches? Won’t they take away opportunities on 3rd down? If you’ve been on twitter the past few months, you’ve most likely read someone tweet about them resigning Jalen Richard, about drafting Lynn Bowden, about signing Theo Riddick. The only thing I have to say about that is…And??
Jalen Richard
Richard has and will continue to be a competent change-of-pace back who excels at pass blocking and pass catching. He’ll spell Jacobs on some 3rd downs to give Jacobs a break, but he’s not taking away enough volume to put a hurt on Jacobs’ fantasy success. As I correctly projected last year, Richard’s numbers returned to pre-2018 status, and have overall steadily declined his 4 years in the league. I would only recommend rostering Richard in deep 12+ team leagues as a long shot PPR plug-in. Unlike the last 2 seasons, he won’t see enough volume to be fantasy relevant. Richard will be great for real football, but bad for fantasy football.
Lynn Bowden, Jr.
Lynn Bowden, Jr. is listed as a running back on the team’s roster, but I really think that’s for roster number purposes only. Bowden will line up everywhere for the Raiders. He’s the new hybrid H-Back that we saw Tarik Cohen play last year. Someone that can line up in the backfield, on the wing, in the slot, or motion out wide to add a wrinkle to the offense. He doesn’t have prototypical RB or WR size, but the guy is a playmaker. Last year at Kentucky he played QB, WR, and RB, rushing 185 times for 1,468 yards and 13 TDs, caught 30 receptions for 348 yards and 1 TD, and threw for 35 times for 403 yards and 3 TDs. That’s over 2,200 yards of offense generated by one player from three different positions. Insane.
While Bowden will cause a fit for opposing defenses, it’s too early to tell just how much volume he’ll receive this year. He’s a great late-round pickup for Dynasty, and unless you’re part of #RaiderNation I would just keep him on the Watch List until at least mid-season. One thing is for sure though, I do expect some Wildcat usage from him, just like he did at Kentucky.
Welcome to the #Raiders, Lynn Bowden Jr. pic.twitter.com/TMLA1tbZGx
— Raider Cody (@RaiderCody) April 25, 2020
Wide Receiver
Henry Ruggs, III
The Raiders receiving corps is the most improved position on this team, and the one group that was the most irrelevant for fantasy purposes last year. That all begins to change with Henry Ruggs, III. While it typically takes rookie WRs some time to mature, he has a path to fantasy relevance and will contribute right away in the passing and return game. Ruggs is not your prototypical X receiver, so he’ll line up as the Z and in the slot. He’ll make a living on mismatches up the seam, on bubble screens, and taking a slant route to the house.
Ruggs was a beast for Alabama, scoring a touchdown every 4 times he touched the ball. That highly efficient level of production won’t translate over to the NFL, but his usage at Bama is exactly how the Raiders should fit him into their system. He’s a playmaker and an athlete (have you seen him play basketball?) who will line up all over the field. While his status in the personnel matters for fantasy, understanding his role leaves room for another true X receiver to contribute in this offense.
A burner in Las Vegas ⚡️
The Raiders select Alabama WR Henry Ruggs III with the No. 12 pick in the #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/Yry6QUmUTs
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 24, 2020
Tyrell Williams
Tyrell Williams should be that X receiver, for now. However, at the time of this writing, he suffered another injury in a string of low-grade injuries, this time a torn labrum in his shoulder. Williams stated he’s going to rehab and play through the pain; probably because he knows he has to play or he’ll lose his spot. But according to The Undroppables resident injury expert Adam Hutchinson, a torn labrum typically needs surgery to repair, which could cause Williams to miss some weeks. Laviska Shenault suffered a similar injury at Colorado last year that caused his production to drop. Williams can be that true #1 WR type, but it’s been a long 4 years since he last put up those kind of numbers for the Chargers. While he has the size, speed, and metrics to be that guy, he hasn’t consistently produced because of these small but impacting injuries. Before the injury, Williams was worth a late-round pick because he’s a starter and has potential to produce. Now, he’s at best on the Watch List or a deep roster stash.
Hunter Renfrow
Hunter Renfrow is my guy. Matthew Berry has his Little Cooper Kupp, and I have my Lil Hunter Renfrow. From his time at Clemson, Renfrow has been burning DBs with his crisp route running and penchant for catching everything. He’s a great utility player out of the slot that has the route-running ability to beat defenders in a number of ways. Plus, he has the hands to make tough catches. Those hands allowed him to catch touchdown-winning national championships at Clemson, and catch 4 TDs from Carr last season off of 71 targets and 49 receptions.
Not only is his look unassuming, but his speed is as well. Clocked in at a 4.59 40-yard dash, Renfrow’s on-field speed is much faster, as he pulled away from defenders for long YAC touchdowns in Week 8 vs the Texans and Week 16 vs the Chargers. The kid known as “Third and Renfrow” made waves his rookie season and will continue to do so as the main slot WR for the Raiders. Undroppables consensus redraft rankings have him at WR73, but I agree with Paulie’s Sleepers, and have him ranked in the mid-40 range. He’s a great late-round flex addition to any redraft team and is a must-roster in dynasty.
Bryan Edwards
Bryan Edwards is the future X receiver of this team. That future may start a little earlier than planned now that Williams is hurt again. But his role with the team was set the minute he was drafted. Edwards was the potential steal of this draft class because he was a clear-cut #1 WR type coming out of South Carolina. He suffered a knee injury late in the 2019 season, and then broke his foot preparing for the draft. Fortunately, those injuries allowed Edwards to fall to the third Round of the draft for the Raiders. Edwards had a College Dominator rating of 48.4% (94th percentile) and a Breakout Age of 17.8 (100th percentile), putting him at phenom status for both metrics. On the field, he looks the part with his size (6’3″ 212 lbs.) and ability to go up and make tough catches look easy. Edwards was not projected to make a significant fantasy contribution this year, making him a tough player to draft in redraft leagues, but he’s an absolute must-roster in dynasty, as he’ll be a WR1 within 3 years.
The Rest
There are plenty of players on the roster that will compete for the scraps in the receiving game. Zay Jones is my favorite of the group to make the roster and get playing time. He’s been working with Carr all offseason and has developed trust and a rapport with the QB. The first pass thrown in the new stadium during the Raiders’ first scrimmage was to Zay Jones. He can get up backwards and make some plays, but that’s about all he’ll do for fantasy purposes. Agholor is a JAG (just a guy) who is hoping to make the final roster. Lastly, the young guys in Rico Gafford, Marcell Ateman, and Keelan Doss all have potential and are decent WRs, but are behind the rest of the group. None are worth a roster spot in any fantasy format and won’t see much playing time unless they’re traded.
Tight End
Darren Waller
The breakout tight end of 2019 is back and is no longer a sleeper in the fantasy community. The best thing about Darren Waller is that he’s humble, and has stayed humble throughout the offseason if you follow his Instagram. He’s continued to work at his sobriety and his music. Now why am I talking about his off-field life so much? Because Waller is one of those guys that have the world at their fingertips if they just stay focused. The converted wide receiver has proven he’s a mismatch monster. Too big to be guarded by safeties, and too fast to be guarded by linebackers. Plus, The Podfather likes him, so he’s got that going for him. Waller finished as the TE3 last year in PPR thanks to a team-leading 117 targets. The question is, can he do it again?
He’ll definitely have competition for targets this year from the receivers I discussed above. But with Derek Carr averaging 552 attempts per season, there’s still plenty to go around. Waller should continue to be his favorite target on the team and his safety blanket. While I do expect his targets to take a small dip to 100+, I would expect his 3 TDs to rise as well with some more red zone work. Regressing back to the mean, or “positive regression” if you will. The main reason I believe Waller solidifies his top-5 TE status this season is based on my favorite stat for him from PFF, which puts him in some very fine company:
Most catches with 5+ receiving yards after contact in 2019:
1. Christian McCaffrey – 22
2. George Kittle – 21
3. Chris Godwin – 19
4. Darren Waller – 18 pic.twitter.com/4WpCNCseHi— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 22, 2020
Foster Moreau
Besides the WRs, Waller will also be “competing” with Foster Moreau and Jason Witten. Compete is in quotes because Waller is the clear-cut #1 TE, if not the #1 receiving option on the team. Moreau is a great athlete and your prototypical tight end who would be the starter on any team without Waller. He’s got good size, can in-line block, and can catch. He beat Waller in TDs last year with 5, which makes him a very interesting fantasy prospect, because with only 25 targets last year, he’s extremely efficient. Unfortunately, there’s not getting enough volume for fantasy relevance. Foster should be rostered in Dynasty leagues as a taxi squad stash, or a late round pick for Best Ball leagues. Once he gets his shot, he’ll be legit.
Jason Witten
The one player that does have the potential to eat into Waller’s production is Jason Witten, particularly from a red zone standpoint. Last year in Dallas, Witten earned more red zone targets than any other pass catcher for the Cowboys. However, that’s the only place I see Witten contributing, as he was signed as a locker room guy; a veteran presence that can teach both young TEs a thing or two about playing the position at the highest level, as well as fulfilling the role Mayock and Gruden have brought to the Raiders: a high character guy that loves the game of football.
Final Thoughts
The Vegas Raiders are turning it around with youth, talent, and good guys both in the locker room and on the field. As a Raiders fan, I say this every year, but 2020 and beyond is looking bright for the Silver & Black. Like any team, they have to stay healthy and guys need to reach their full potential. With Gruden going into his 3rd season at the helm and with Mayock building the roster, it’s time for the entire team to hit that 3rd-year breakout and prove the haters wrong.
For more AFC West breakdowns from The Undroppables, check out our posts on the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs.
