With Senior Bowl practices set to begin on Tuesday, I wanted to look back at the last handful of Senior Bowls, particularly at the Wide Receivers and Running Backs, to create some general expectations for the 2024 class.
We can deduce a great deal from the last three years alone, and we will get into some NFL and Fantasy Rookie Draft Data for these two position groups. This week, though, we will get inundated with highlight clips, opinions on players, and some excellent info. Before we take that all in, let’s adjust our lenses.
Based on recent history, I want to examine what’s important, what we should look for, and how we can apply this to fantasy.
What’s Important and What to Look For.
#1 – Most of the WRs and RBs in attendance will not be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, nor your rookie drafts.
Early declares still dominate the first-round landscapes. Right or wrong, conventional wisdom suggests that if a player broke out earlier in college, they are likelier to break out early in the NFL. This is all, not to mention our preference for younger players in the dynasty. Thus, the early declares get the draft capital in both NFL and fantasy settings.
#2 – Most of these WRs and RBs will get drafted.
These guys are still college all-star-level talents, and even though they’re older and thus less desirable than their early breakout/early declare counterparts, they got invited to the Senior Bowl for a reason.
#3 – The NFL wants more data points on these players.
The NFL Combine will primarily focus on their “measurable” athleticism. Still, the Senior Bowl is the last opportunity for these players to showcase their on-field skills in practice and game settings against high-level competition.
#4 – These players have something to prove.
Maybe they went to a small school and didn’t compete against elite programs. Or they were stuck in a bad situation or behind a star player. Maybe they transferred and had a late breakout. Perhaps a WR needs to prove they can separate quickly against man coverage, or an RB needs to demonstrate his pass-blocking and pass-catching chops. These practices and this game give them a chance to prove to NFL scouts that they can do something to increase their draft stock.
Some players can prove what they need to in one or two practices. Last year, Tank Dell and Puka Nacua, among many others, called it a week after a day or two of practice sessions. They got in, answered the questions they came there to answer in practice and drills, and got out. There is no need to risk injury; see you at the combine. So…
#5 – Make note of players who leave early.
These are the guys who proved what they needed to. They and their agents will determine they’ve raised enough stock to skip the remaining practices and the game.
#6 – The practice sessions are more important for some players than the game.
We will be scouring the coverage of the practices and making note of who’s showing out and who’s leaving early.
#7 – Starting this year, underclassmen who have declared for the NFL Draft can participate.
This is an important change that will shift our outlooks moving forward. For this 2024 class, of these two position groups, two underclassmen RBs are participating (Jaylen Wright and Rasheen Ali). We’ll be paying close attention and considering how their evaluations differ from the rest of the group.
Considering those points, let’s look at the draft data to set expectations. Below are the complete lists of WRs and RBs who accepted invites to the Senior Bowl from 2021 – 2023:
Wide Receivers
Running Backs
How Can We Apply This Data to Fantasy?
Since 2021, among a group of 76 WRs and RBs, the Senior Bowl has produced three selections in the first round of the NFL Draft. Those players were Devonta Smith (1.10), Kadarius Toney (1.20), and Najee Harris (1.24). Four players had first-round ADPs in our rookie drafts (according to MFL). Going back to point #1 above, most of these guys will not be first-round selections.
It follows that the data points we’re gathering from the Senior Bowl will begin assisting us in the second rounds of our rookie drafts and beyond.
That may not excite you, but that is where the edge lies. We get what falls to us in the first round without aggressive trading. Our league-mates are more likely to follow ADP early, and in general, they’re not going out on a limb from consensus rankings. The divergences happen later in the draft, and that is where these Senior Bowl participants will be available to us.
In other words, the data points we get from the Senior Bowl will help you make decisions at the points in your draft where there is less consensus.
This may seem obvious, but if we pay attention, we may get information we can act on.
Knowing Tank Dell was talking trash to any DB that would dare matchup with him, that he was un-guardable, and that he left after two days of practice can lead you to draft him over Cedric Tillman in Round 3.
Knowing Tyjae Spears can run ankle-breaking routes and catch out of the backfield can quell concerns over the absence of an ACL.
These data points can lead you to the right decisions when you’re on the clock.
Looking Ahead
We will track these data points as the Senior Bowl practices unfold. Today’s takeaway is that they can matter and help you get an edge.
Another thing to note on the RBs: Running backs often peak while playing on their rookie contracts. That’s especially true of the non-early declares, aka seniors. The window for NFL success is a year shorter. Thus, we must decide to fish or cut bait on these guys sooner.
I will dive into some predictive indicators later this offseason, but you can probably draw some conclusions from the list above. Going back to the 2021 class, out of the 11 Senior Bowl participants, I would argue only 4 of those players are still relevant (Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Herbert, and Michael Carter). If you go to the ’22 class, again, we’re down to 4 we still care about for fantasy (Rachaad White, Jerome Ford, Brian Robinson, and Dameon Pierce). Except for Jerome Ford, who spent his rookie year behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the other 7 made a good amount of noise as rookies.
Looking ahead to the 2023 class, it’s probably not too early to start divesting your shares of the running backs who came into the NFL older and did not flash in year one. More on that to come this offseason, but all eyes are on this senior class this week. Check back in later this week for my consolidated notes.
