After his sophomore season, there was seemingly no question about it; if Mark Andrews could finally receive a higher target and snap share in the electric Ravens offense, he could be the next great fantasy tight end. Andrews finished as the TE5 in 2019, despite a season-average offensive snap share of just 41.36% (which ironically exactly tied fellow Baltimore TE Hayden Hurst.) This, however, paled in comparison to the blocking specialist Nick Boyle (more on him later), who played a whopping 69.59% of offensive snaps.
Still, Hurst and Boyle only finished as the TE34 and TE36 respectively, demonstrating how Andrews was a favored receiving threat receiving prime downfield and red zone opportunities. In fact, Andrews led the league in deep targets and touchdowns at the TE position, and was extraordinarily efficient on his limited looks, averaging the most fantasy points per route run at the position.
At just 23 years old, the future seemed dazzlingly bright for Andrews, especially when projecting an increase in opportunity due to Hayden Hurst’s departure and Andrews’ own performance, combined with the projected improvement to Lamar Jackson’s passing and the lack of new receiving weapons (Devin Duvernay was essentially an afterthought.)
As fantasy managers and Ravens fans know, however, this didn’t come to fruition, despite Andrews’s snap share increasing from 41.35% to 58.19% in one fewer game played than the year before (Data via Pro Football Reference). The target count shows a different story, however, as he saw 10 fewer targets than the prior season despite the increased opportunity.
Andrews still finished as the TE6 on the season, but due to the preseason hype propelling him to be the consensus TE3, this was a largely disappointing outcome. This was compounded by Mark Andrews’ inconsistent performances, producing single-digit outcomes too consistently for fantasy managers’ tastes. So why exactly did this happen? Let’s take a closer look at Andrews’ fantasy performances last season, and see why these inconsistencies actually seem to follow a patter. Could this pattern tell us more about Andrews’ future fantasy prospects?
Here is Mark Andrews’ production in 2020, via Pro Football Reference:
As seen by his yardage and reception totals, Andrews produced at a higher level down the stretch as opposed to the start of the season. While external factors like the lack of preseason due to COVID-19 may have contributed to this, I contend that there is an even larger reason for this discrepancy, one that has ramifications for years to come. This reason is Nick Boyle.
Nick Boyle Splits
Boyle was a thorn in the side of fantasy managers, consistently receiving significant playing time and siphoning occasional passing game work away from Andrews. He suffered a horrible leg injury in Week 10, injuring his MCL, PCL, and hamstring in the process (luckily Boyle should be ready for next season.) This ended up being a turning point in Andrews’ season, as prior to week 10 he averaged just over 37 receiving yards per game on just 5.5 targets and 3.25 receptions per game. From Week 10 onwards, Andrews’s production skyrocketed, averaging over 67 receiving yards per game on 7.33 targets and 5.33 receptions per game.
Counter-Arguments
Of course, there are other potential reasons for this difference, and some common ideas are listed below.
Could it be because of overall improved passing production after Week 9? The Ravens passing offense from Weeks 1-9 averaged around 176.88 passing yards/game on 27 passing attempts/game, whereas from Week 10 onwards, (games 12/13 excluded since Andrews didn’t play in these games) the Ravens averaged 187.33 passing yards/game on 25.83 passing attempts/game. The passing yardage/game of the Ravens only increased 10.96 yards/game, while the average pass attempts actually fell by 1.17 attempts/game. These numbers are fairly consistent with the pre-Week 10 pace and demonstrate a very limited, if any, improvement in the Ravens overall passing attack from a pure “counting stats” production standpoint.
How about home/road splits? The pre-Boyle injury interval saw four away games in eight overall games, compared to three away games in six overall games (only counting the ones Andrews actually played in) in the post-Boyle injury interval, both of which represent the same percentage (50%) of home/road splits.
What about variability given the small sample size? This is a valid concern, however, the mean receiving yards, in particular, demonstrates an approximate 180% increase in yardage, which seems unlikely to be due to variability alone.
Takeaways
Unfortunately for fantasy managers of Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle is under contract with the Ravens for the next three seasons (although there is a realistic out after 2022.) Still, Boyle seems locked in with the team (most likely) for the next two seasons, capping Andrews’ upside for the foreseeable future. Additionally, Mark Andrews may see even more competition in the Baltimore tight end room.
In 2019, the Ravens saw success with their three-TE rotation and based on the relatively disappointing production from the Ravens tight ends in 2020, they could look to bolster the position. The Ravens already traded for Josh Oliver earlier in the offseason, a former third-round pick whose first two seasons in the NFL have been derailed by injuries. While I don’t project Oliver for a major role given his lack of NFL production, it’s interesting to note that Oliver’s player comp on Player Profiler is actually Hayden Hurst. If the Ravens intend to utilize Oliver in a similar role, this could cap Andrews’ playing time.
While yes, Andrews had a higher positional finish in 2019 with a three-TE rotation as opposed to 2020 with just Boyle and himself, this was on the back of an incredibly high target-to-snap ratio and unsustainable efficiency, so I would project Mark Andrews for a lower return on his value if the three-TE system is reinstated. Further, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ravens look to draft a TE in the next two draft classes, likely not as an early-round selection, but more so towards the end of Day 2 or early-Day 3 of the draft.
Trade Value
So how far should Mark Andrews fall in dynasty? It’s important to remember that the tight end position is devoid of studs for fantasy football, so Andrews still ranks as a TE1 in dynasty league rankings for sure. That said, I’d look to trade Andrews away for TEs like T.J. Hockenson in a one-for-one deal. Alternatively, I’d look to acquire Noah Fant, Dallas Goedert, or Irv Smith plus some other assets in exchange for Andrews. While Andrews is still an intriguing tight end due to his unique red zone prowess and the flashes he has shown on the field, he shouldn’t be regarded as a “sure thing.” I’d take Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, and Kyle Pitts over Andrews in dynasty leagues, with Andrews ranking right alongside Noah Fant as my TE6.
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