Market Watch is where we dive into the ever-changing values of players in dynasty formats. Whether it’s an opportunity to buy low, sell high or even buy high, sharks never sleep.
? Bullish: These are players who are trending up, causing optimism for future prospects and performance.
Chris Carson – Finishing as the RB12 in PPR formats despite missing a game and a decent amount of touches to Rashaad Penny, Carson has been slipping in Superflex startup drafts in January. With a January ADP of 60.3, the Seahawks lead back is being drafted in the 6th to 7th rounds on many occasions as a mid-level RB2. With the aforementioned Penny siphoning carries, Carson still managed 278 carries of his own for 1,230 rushing yards and 7 TDs. And while not known for pass-catching abilities, Carson hauled in 37 catches on 47 targets, showing he isn’t a slouch in the passing game. He is only 25 years old and sits comfortably as the top dog in a run-first offense led by Russell Wilson. Carson will continue to see a plethora of red zone and goal line work and with Penny out with a significant knee injury, Carson looks primed for a big 2020 season with hopes that he will see the same or more workload with only Travis Homer and CJ Prosise on the depth chart at the moment. Of course, Seattle may add a running back in the loaded free agent and rookie RB classes, but that is yet to be seen. Penny has high draft capital invested in him and despite lackluster performances and a major injury, it is likely that Pete Carroll hastily moves on. The Seahawks lead RB is a buy low, only in the sense that he will only get more expensive if any reports of a Penny setback come out of Seattle.
Sentiment: Buy Low
Robert Woods – One of the most underrated throughout his entire career, Woods has never garnered the attention or respect of the players in the tiers he’s found himself in over the past 3-4 seasons. Last season, Woods once against finished a rock-solid WR2 (WR14) while averaging 15.5 PPR points per game in an offense that was up and down at best. Goff’s struggles have punished Woods’ early offseason ADP where he sits at 76.1 (WR30) in Superflex startup drafts in January. In the middle of a long term contract with the Rams, Woods isn’t going anywhere and the offense is built around players like him who are versatile chess pieces. Woods will continue to eat as a top 25 wide receiver while being valued as a WR3. This is where a savvy owner can take advantage of an irrational misperception of a player. To put things into perspective, Woods outscored Mike Evans in 2019.
Sentiment: Buy Low
? Bearish: These are players who are either trending down or show cause for concern regarding their future prospects and performance. We’re looking to sell these players.
Derrick Henry – Henry went on another rampage in 2019 and produced a top 5 season at the running back position. Over the past 1 1/2 seasons, Henry has arrived as many expected for years. Unfortunately, he became King Henry about three years too late and as he enters his age 26 season, he is at his peak value. The sell sentiment here is not due to a concern that he will fail to produce at an elite level, but it is to get ahead of the curve and sell a year (or even two) early but at the highest price possible. There may not be a better time to sell Henry who is currently going as early as the 1.12 in Superflex PPR leagues (!) but is generally going in the 2nd rounds with an ADP of 22.1. As an example of the value, I recently packaged Derrick Henry and Ian Thomas for Alvin Kamara. It was a fair deal and both sides walked away happy but DH’s current market value allows him to be moved for bonafide elite 1st round startup cornerstone RBs. TFinally, Henry is a free agent and his future has some uncertainty although he will likely resign with the Titans. But there is always the chance that he ends up in a situation without Conklin and that Tennessee run-blocking line.
Sentiment: Sell High
Raheem Mostert – Mostert has been shredding up the league over the past month or so, capped off with a historical performance the NFC Championship. After starting the season off as the third RB on the depth chart, Mostert has climbed his way to the top albeit with the help of injuries to Coleman and Breida. But to give credit where it’s due, Mostert seized the opportunity (as he did last year) and ran with it, literally. Mostert isn’t known as a grinder but more of a slasher, speedster type that relies on his speed, burst and agility to make plays. The downside is that Mostert will be 28 years old when the 2020 NFL season kicks off and the 49ers backfield will remain muddled at best over a long offseason with packed rookie and free agent rookie classes headed this way. Shannahan has shown that his brand of football is tough defense with running the ball with a large committee. Coleman is likely a cap casualty with zero dead cap attached, Breida is a restricted free agent, leaving McKinnon and Mostert as the two RBs that will likely be in San Francisco come August. There will surely be one or two more RBs to be added as well whether either or both incumbents in Coleman and Breida return. Regardless, this is peak value for Mostert and I’ll gladly move him for a 2020 2nd+ if I get an offer.
Sentiment: Sell High
