Happy Thanksgiving!
I will make this brief this week as so much is going on. But first, I want to wish every one of you a very Happy Thanksgiving.
Try to enjoy the day.
The worst thing about the holiday season is many people stress out about who they will see or will not see. But, there is a secret here for all of you. Stay in touch with the people you want to be in touch with all year round. This means family and friends. If people are not in contact with you at the very least here and there throughout the year, DO NOT stress out overseeing them. In all honesty, I don’t see them at all.
If you are not seeing people that stay in touch with you all year, don’t get mad about it. They take the time to check in with you and see you all year. Those people care about you; they don’t wait until the holidays to show everyone else this.
I am thankful for you every day, not just on Thanksgiving.
Are you ready for some football?
If you are new here, this column can be used to help you handle some sit/start questions you might have, but its primary purpose is to take you through the main DFS slate weekly with players that will make you money and players that will break your heart.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow
I wrote about Burrow last week in this column. He had a great matchup with the Steelers, and he threw for 355 yards and four touchdowns against them. Burrow has multiple touchdowns in four out of the last five games. In Week 12, the Bengals play the Titans. The Titans give the 6th most points to the opposing team’s quarterbacks. The Titans give up an average of 288 yards and two touchdowns to quarterbacks weekly. So Burrow is in the middle of a lovely stretch of easy matchups.
$6,700 on DraftKings
$8,600 on Fanduel
Justin Herbert
People were worried about Herbert for a few weeks. Last week he got Keenan Allen back and had Mike Williams for at least a bit. Then, everything changed; the Chargers’ passing game looked like the Chargers’ passing game. Herbert threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns. This week the Chargers play the Cardinals. The Cardinals give the fifth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Last week Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 228 yards and four touchdowns against this Cardinals team. Look for Herbert to be all Charged up and throw for another 250 yards or so and multiple touchdowns.
$7,000 on DraftKings
$7,900 on Fanduel
Geno Smith
Geno is coming off a bye week to play the Raiders. The Raiders give the third most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Perfect team to come back to after a bye week. Get that rust off. In the last two games he played in, Geno had 275 yards and two touchdowns passing in each game. Geno has multiple touchdowns in all but two games this season. So you can easily pick up what I am putting down on this one. YO! It’s Geno!
$6,000 on DraftKings
$7,600 on Fanduel
Other quarterbacks for Week 12
Lamar Jackson
$8,000 on DraftKings
$8,200 on Fanduel
Davis Mills
$5,200 on DraftKings
$6,600 on Fanduel
Taylor Heinicke
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,500 on Fanduel
Running Backs
Jeff Wilson Jr.
The Texans give up the most fantasy points to running backs. Every week a running back has double-digit fantasy points against this defense. Wilson has acclimated himself to Miami like a retired 75-year-old. He has been leading Dolphins running backs in snaps since joining the team. He has a touchdown in each of his last two games. And now he has the best matchup he could ask for.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,700 on Fanduel
Leonard Fournette
The Browns give up the second most fantasy points to running backs. They are trying hard to catch up to the Texans in this category. The Browns are much friendlier than the Texans because they give up five receptions and 36 yards receiving to running backs weekly. This is an excellent match for Fournette and Rachaad White. Tampa will utilize both guys heavily this week.
$5,800 on DraftKings
$7,200 on Fanduel
Latavius Murray
Melvin Gordon got waived, and Chase Edmonds went to IR. Denver plays the Panthers. The Panthers give the sixth most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. Murray is the best option in the Broncos’ run game by default. The volume will be there in an excellent matchup for the 32-year-old, that has revived his career.
$5,000 on DraftKings
$6,200 on Fanduel
Other Running backs for Week 12
James Conner
$6,600 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Josh Jacobs
$7,700 on DraftKings
$8,700 on Fanduel
Kenneth Walker
$6,900 on DraftKings
$8,400 on Fanduel
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin
Scary Terry has a 22% target share of the Commanders’ passes. He also has a whopping 38% air yards share. His target share and volume of targets have increased dramatically since Heinicke took over at quarterback in Week 7. He has seven or more targets in 5 straight weeks. Double-digit fantasy scores in three out of the last five games. In Week 12, he gets to play against the Falcons. The Falcons give the opposing team’s wide receivers the second most fantasy points. Wide receivers average 15 receptions, 188 yards, and a touchdown weekly against the Falcons. It’s a cornucopia of fantasy points for McLaurin this week
$5,800 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Tee Higgins
Higgins has double-digit fantasy scores in three of the last four games. With Ja’Marr Chase out, Higgins has been excellent. This week he gets a great matchup as well against the Titans. The titans give the third most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. He catches everything thrown his way with a 70% catch rate. He has 712 yards on the season; this looks like an easy 1000-yard season for Higgins. We are looking at 100 yards and a touchdown this week to add to his totals.
$6,900 on DraftKings
$8,200 on Fanduel
Christian Kirk
I had been waiting for this stretch of games for some time. In the last two games combined, Kirk has 21 targets, 17 receptions, 181 yards, and three touchdowns. That is an excellent two-game stretch. In Week 12, the Jaguars come off their bye week to play the Ravens. The Ravens give opposing teams’ wide receivers the sixth most fantasy points. So Kirk will take his 25% target share, and 31% air yards share and lead us to another week of fantasy goodness. Once again, Kirk will be banging fantasy points like Captain James Kirk does alien women.
$6,500 on DraftKings
$7,700 on Fanduel
Other Wide Receivers for Week 12
Nico Collins
$4,100 on DraftKings
$6,000 on Fanduel
Juju Smith-Schuster
$5,700 on DraftKings
$6,600 on Fanduel
Courtland Sutton
$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,100 on Fanduel
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett
The Cardinals give up the most points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Everett has been involved in the passing attack when healthy. He has a 15% target share and is third on the team in targets this season. The matchup is right. The Cardinals have given up nine touchdowns to tight ends this season.
$4,400 on DraftKings
$5,200 on Fanduel
Tyler Higbee
The Rams play the Chiefs in Week 12. The Chiefs give up the tenth most fantasy points to tight ends. This is my third week writing about Higbee. He has a 26% target share since Cooper Kupp has been injured, leading all Rams receivers. Higbee is the player most involved in the Rams’ passing game, with Kupp being out. The offensive line is terrible, and Stafford will need to get the ball out fast. The matchup is good. Look for another 8-10 targets and production based on volume and matchup. Higbee will feast this week.
$4,200 on DraftKings
$5,700 on Fanduel
Other Tight Ends for Week 12
Foster Moreau
$3,400 on DraftKings
$5,400 on Fanduel
Noah Fant
$3,200 on DraftKings
$5,100 on Fanduel
David Njoku
$3,600 on DraftKings
$5,600 on Fanduel
Trey McBride
$3,100 on DraftKings
$4,800 on Fanduel
💔Heart Breakers
Quarter Backs
Sam Darnold
The Broncos give the least amount of fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. The Panthers’ passing game hasn’t exactly been great this season. This will be Darnolds’ first game this season, and I expect him to be rusty. This is not the place to plug Darnold in, even out of desperation. Yuck, someone put raisins in the stuffing.
Tua Tagovailoa
During the season-long leagues, I play Tua myself. In DFS, I don’t want to pay up for Tua this week against the Texans. The Texans give up the third least amount of fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. That is because it’s SO easy to run on them. The game script says the Dolphins will grow legs this week and run, run, run all over the Texans. Did you picture an actual Dolphin with legs? You didn’t, did you?
Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill might have a great game like he did last week to keep the Titans in this game against the Bengals. The Bengals have only given up one game of over 20 fantasy points to a quarterback this season. So more than likely, you aren’t playing Tannehill unless you are in a two QB league anyways. If you are playing him, all I can say is, “I’m sorry.”
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara
The Saints play the Niners in Week 12. The Niners are the second-toughest team against running backs. Kamara has been just ok when playing top 10 defenses against running backs this season. This means you play him in season-long and hope for the best and you expect not so much in DFS and avoid him. His over-under, for me, is 10 fantasy points, and I think he has to get a touchdown to get the over.
Nick Chubb
Chubb has looked like one of the best running backs in the league this season. He has got it done against tough run defenses already. He only has two games where he hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy scores. This week will most likely be his third week there. The Buccaneers give up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. He might make it to 10 fantasy points, but I am not spending up for him in DFS to get 10 points.
Joe Mixon
If Mixon is still in concussion protocol, insert Samaje Perine’s name here. It’s much easier to pass against the Titans than to run on them. So the Bengals’ will pass the ball. This is another case of a bad matchup: don’t pay up in DFS. It simply isn’t worth it this week.
Wide Receivers
DJ Moore
Moore is successful with Sam Darnold as his quarterback. But the Broncos are the second toughest team against the pass in the league. It will be Darnold’s first game back on the field. This is a situation to avoid at all costs. The Panthers aren’t perfect, are they? I got the bucket for this one.
Jaylen Waddle
I love the Dolphins’ passing game. So writing this breaks my heart as I have Waddle on many a season-long team. The Texans give up the fourth fewest points to wide receivers. This is because you can run all over them. So the Dolphins will use a game script to run and run some more simply because they can.
Darnell Mooney
Is Justin Fields playing? I don’t know. I do know two things. First, the Jets’ defense is good, and the passing volume for the Bears has been low all season. So, I am not touching him unless Mooney has some smash matchup. I love it when it is this easy.
Tight Ends
George Kittle
Is Kittle a heartbreaker this week? What is wrong with you, Reedy? He had 84 yards and two touchdowns last week. That was last week against the Cardinals, who stink against tight ends. This week, the Niners play the Saints, the second-toughest team against tight ends. Only one tight end has scored a touchdown against the Saints, and not a single tight end has scored nine or more fantasy points against this defense. The game script, play calling, and coaching matters. The Niners will likely move to other skill players this week simply because they can.
Tyler Conklin
With Mike White named the starter, maybe Conklin will produce as he did when noodle-armed Flacco highly targeted his tight end out of necessity. But the Bears are tough on the tight end position. Only two tight ends have broken 10 points against the Bears this season. So unless he sees 12 targets or more, there is almost no way Conklin does that.
NOTE: There are SO many tight ends I could say are heartbreakers this week, but what is the point? You already know that.
Good luck this week, and Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at the Undroppables!
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter and @MikeReedyFF for more great content.
