For those reading this playing in season-long leagues, this is the last week you have before the fantasy playoffs. Good luck! Remember, if you don’t make the playoffs in your league, you can keep playing fantasy by participating in the NFL Playoff Challenge. I will again run a playoff challenge with Ride Hard Breathe Easy to support this charity. Of course, you can also play DFS!!
Are you ready for some football?
If you are new here, this column can be used to help you handle some sit/start questions you might have, but its primary purpose is to take you through the main DFS slate weekly with players that will make you money and players that will break your heart.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins
In Week 14, the Vikings play the Lions. The Lions give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. This game has an over/under of 53 points, the highest on the main slate. Cousins had a rough Week 13 against the Jets, but the Jets’ defense is excellent. Cousins has been up and down this season for fantasy production. This is an up week.
$6,100 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence is the only quarterback in the last four games that didn’t come through big against the Lions. That’s OK. This week the Jaguars play the Titans. The Titans give up the second most fantasy points weekly to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. The Titans have given up either 250 yards or multiple touchdowns in 5 straight games. This looks like it will be 250 yards and two TD games for Lawrence.
$5,700 on DraftKings
$7,200 on Fanduel
Jared Goff
The Lions play the Vikings in Week 14. The over/under for this game was stated earlier and is 53. That’s a lot of points. The Vikings give the seventh most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. In 4 out of the last six games, a quarterback has passed for over 300 yards against the Vikings. Goff has passed for multiple touchdowns in two straight games. In Week 13, he also threw for 340 yards. The Lions are finally healthy and loaded at the skill positions. This is an excellent smash spot for Goff in Week 14.
$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,100 on Fanduel
Other quarterbacks for Week 14
Ryan Tannehill
$5,200 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Kenny Pickett
$5,200 on DraftKings
$6,600 on Fanduel
Tyler Huntley
$5,500 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott (Tony Pollard too)
The Texans give up the most fantasy points to running backs. Zeke has double-digit fantasy scores in 5 straight games. Pollard has double-digit fantasy scores in 5 out of the last six games. Dallas runs the ball about 50% of the time. Each of these running backs has eight touchdowns on the season; there should be plenty of fantasy goodness for both Cowboys running backs week. Cowboy up, folks!
Ezekiel Elliott
$6,100 on DraftKings
$8,000 on Fanduel
Tony Pollard
$6,700 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
D’Onta Foreman
The Panthers are playing the Seahawks in Week 14. The Seahawks give up the second most fantasy point to running backs. Foreman gets most of the snaps and most of the fantasy production at running back since Christian McCaffrey was traded to the Niners. Running backs averaged 112 yards and a touchdown rushing per week against the Seahawks. Hey, even Cam Akers had two touchdowns against this team last week. I am playing Foreman everywhere I can.
$5,400 on DraftKings
$6,900 on Fanduel
Samaje Perine
Perine has been a monster since Mixon has been out. Perines’ numbers for the last three weeks are staggering. In Week 11, he smashed three receiving touchdowns when Mixon left the game. In Week 12, he had 58 yards rushing, a touchdown, and another 35 yards receiving. In Week 13, he had 106 yards rushing and another 49 yards receiving. To top it off, in Week 14, the Bengals are playing the Browns, who give up the third most fantasy points to running backs. He has also been these three weeks over these three weeks with a 17% target share. He is simply doing it all over the field. Perine will stiff-arm his way to yards after contact again in Week 14.
$6,300 on DraftKings
$7,800 on Fanduel
Other Running backs for Week 14
Kenneth Walker
$6,800 on DraftKings
$7,600 on Fanduel
Derrick Henry
$7,900 on DraftKings
$9,000 on Fanduel
D’Andre Swift
$5,800 on DraftKings
$7,200 on Fanduel
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown
The Detroit Lions play the Vikings in Week 14. I believe I already mentioned that the over-under is 53 for this game. The Vikings give up 15 receptions and 203 yards to wide receivers weekly. The Sun God has had a 30% target share over the past three games. He catches 90% of those targets. Thirty targets and 27 receptions. He has also had 312 yards and three touchdowns in this time frame—a crazy smash spot to pay up for St. Brown. So get your sunglasses and tanning lotion out, as Amon-Ra will shine bright in Week 14.
$7,800 on DraftKings
$8,600 on Fanduel
Christian Kirk
The Titans give up the most fantasy points to wide receivers weekly. Kirk saw eight targets in Week 13 which he turned into six receptions and 104 yards. Kirk has a 26% target share and 35% of the air yards over the past four games. It is an excellent spot for Kirk to keep going. It looks like another 100-yard game and a TD will be in the Captain’s log this week.
$6,600 on DraftKings
$7,600 on Fanduel
Justin Jefferson
Jefferson already has 1277 yards and six touchdowns this season. We are two-thirds of the way through the season. For the Vikings, he has a 29% target share, 42% air yards share, and a 71% catch rate. Jefferson has double-digit fantasy scores in 8 of the last nine games. He plays the game with the highest over/under of the week. To top it all off, the Lions give up the fifth most fantasy points to wide receivers. This is set up for a massive game for Jefferson.
$9,000 on DraftKings
$9,300 on Fanduel
Other Wide Receivers for Week 14
Treylon Burks
$4,700 on DraftKings
$6,000 on Fanduel
Diontae Johnson
$5,100 on DraftKings
$6,500 on Fanduel
Chris Godwin
$6,700 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Tight Ends
Greg Dulcich
Courtland Sutton got hurt in Week 13. Dulcich became the target monster in his absence. Dulcich led the Broncos in targets with 8. That was good for a 36% target share. The Broncos are playing the Chiefs, who are good against tight ends but not against wide receivers. OK, Mike, then why are you talking about Dulcich? Because he lines up out wide. He has 22% of the Broncos’ air yards. Only Andrews, Pitts, and Kelce have a higher percentage of their teams’ air yards on the season. In Week 13, he had 42% of those air yards for his team. He will be lined up as a wide receiver against the team that gives up the fourth most points to wide receivers. I like Dulcich a lot in Week 14.
$3,400 on DraftKings
$5,400 on Fanduel
TJ Hockenson
I don’t always fall into revenge game narratives. Hockenson has had a 20% target share on the Vikings since joining the team. He is second on the team behind Jefferson in targets since joining the team. The Lions give the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Tight ends average five receptions for 54 yards against the Lions. Hockenson will exceed that for sure. If you can’t tell, I like the Vikings this week.
$5,100 on DraftKings
$6,500 on Fanduel
Other Tight Ends for Week 14
Jack Stoll
$2,800 on DraftKings
$4,700 on Fanduel
George Kittle
$4,300 on DraftKings
$5,900 on Fanduel
Austin Hooper
$2,900 on DraftKings
$4,900 on Fanduel
💔Heart Breakers
Quarter Backs
Patrick Mahomes
The Broncos give the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Only one quarterback has scored 20 points against this defense. It’s a combination of the Broncos’ defense being good and the Broncos’ offense being so bad that play-calling leads to more running. You play Mahomes season-long but do not pay up for him in DFS.
Dak Prescott
The Cowboys are playing the Texans in Week 14. The Texans give up the second least amount of points to quarterbacks in fantasy. Only two quarterbacks have scored more than 20 fantasy points against them this season. The Cowboys are not afraid to run the ball a lot. They run the ball the eight most at 49.7% of the time. Prescott has not scored 20 points in either of the past two weeks. The Cowboys need to game-script this to run, run, and run some more.
Danny Jones
The Eagles give the fewest points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Five of the last eight quarterbacks to play against the Eagles have not even cracked ten fantasy points. The Eagles’ defense is outstanding against the pass. The Giants also run the ball the fifth most in the league. This is yet another game script call. Coaching matters play calling matters. The Giants will not be passing as much in Week 14.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette
I like the Buccaneers running game, with both Fournette and White healthy and active. He is a great running back by the committee team. But the Niners give up the least fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. Only four running backs have scored double digits against the Niners. That is pretty much enough said. Two guys are splitting touches against a team that doesn’t give up fantasy points to the position. So yeah, I’ll look elsewhere.
Christian McCaffrey
In Week 13, Alvin Kamara managed 37 yards against the Buccaneers’ defense. The Buccaneer’s defense is the third toughest defense against running backs. Of course, we are talking about CMC here. I do think he will see his touches and a large number of targets in this game. However, I don’t want to pay up for him in DFS, knowing it’s an uphill battle.
Dameon Pierce
Pierce squeaked out a double-digit fantasy day in Week 13. Week 14 is a new week with a fresh outlook, which doesn’t look good for Pierce. The Texans are playing against the Cowboys. The Cowboys give up the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. The Cowboys are a good defense, probably the best this season. I am not touching this one.
Wide Receivers
Juju Smith-Schuster
The Chiefs play the Broncos in Week 14. The Broncos give the fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. I wouldn’t say I like the Chiefs’ passing game much against the Broncos in Week 14. The Broncos offense is terrible, and the defense allows you to run instead of pass. Isaiah Pacheco is an excellent play this week; Juju is not.
CeeDee Lamb
I already know about the Texans being tough against quarterbacks. Well, they also give up the 4th fewest points to wide receivers. The Cowboys can and will run against the Texans. Lamb is someone you are playing in season-long. But do not play for him in DFS. This is a game where he could easily more time blocking and watching running backs do all the heavy lifting.
Stefon Diggs
The Jets give up the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. The Bills played the Jets in Week 9, and Diggs managed five receptions for 93 yards. This is not bad at all. But, again, this is where I want ceiling guys in my DFS lineups, and I don’t want to pay for Diggs’s floor. I think Diggs will score ten fantasy points in Week 14 but is that what you want out of him to win in DFS? I didn’t think so.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton
The Niners’ defense is tough against the run and tight ends. They are the most brutal defense against both positions. Otton may see some volume here, but I wouldn’t count on it. This is a week Brady will look to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to save the day. So I wouldn’t expect much out of Otton in Week 14. Only two tight ends have even scored double-digit fantasy points against the Niners all season.
Tyler Conklin
In Week 9, the Jets played the Bills. The Jets won that game. Tyler Conklin’s stat line was two targets, one reception, and 7 yards. The Bills give up the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Only Travis Kelce scored more than eight fantasy points against the Bills. So don’t get cute this week, even with Mike White at quarterback.
Good luck this week!
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter and @MikeReedyFF for more great content.
