One thing that always puzzles me this time of year is when people are upset at being wished “Happy Holidays,” “Merry Christmas, or even “Happy Hanukkah,” or whatever holiday you specifically celebrate. Someone is wishing you well, and we all should be grateful when people wish us well.
So, in this time of cheer, I wish you a pleasant holiday, no matter which you celebrate. Please take the time to enjoy some moments with family and friends.
I can help you win a little DFS money this weekend to offset whatever you spent on the holiday.
I have two notes that I need you to read below:
NOTE: Please remember I will be running a playoff challenge jointly with Ride Hard Breathe Easy again to support this charity. We would love to have you play. If you would like to participate, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
NOTE: The Main slate for this week is Saturday, Dec 24th. I have some players for the Sunday Slate as well. All players playing on Sunday have the word Sunday next to them in parenthesis. Everyone else is in the Saturday main slate.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold
In Week 16, the Panthers play the Lions. The Lions give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. The Lions have given up multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks in 5 out of the last six games. Only Trevor Lawrence didn’t, and that was because of injury. Yes, even Zach Wilson threw for 317 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Lions. Darnold is getting back into the swing of things, and this is an excellent opportunity for him to produce this season.
$5,100 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Geno Smith
The Chiefs give the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. The Chiefs have given up multiple touchdown days to quarterbacks in 3 of the last four games. Russell Wilson and Davis Mills were two quarterbacks who weren’t lighting the world on fire. Meanwhile, Geno has double-digit touchdowns in 11 games this season. That is also 7 out of the last eight games too. This is the bounce back from the tough Niners defense last week.
$5,800 on DraftKings
$7,600 on Fanduel
Josh Allen
The Bills play the Bears in week 16. The Bears give up the ninth most points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Allen has multiple touchdowns in 3 of the last four games. He is currently the third-highest-scoring on the season. He has thrown for 30 touchdowns already, and this is an excellent spot for him to increase that number. They are coming off 304 yards and a 4-touchdown game.
$8,500 on DraftKings
$9,500 on Fanduel
Other quarterbacks for Week 16
Daniel Jones
$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel
Davis Mills
$5,100 on DraftKings
$6,500 on Fanduel
Aaron Rodgers (Sunday)
$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,300 on Fanduel
Running Backs
Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry has been a beast all season. He has 1303 yards and 12 touchdowns rushing on the season. He also has another 379 yards receiving. He has a 10.6% target share, the highest of his career. So Henry is getting it done on the ground and in the air. He also gets to play the Texans this week. The Texans give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. In Week 8, Henry had 219 yards and two touchdowns rushing against this Texans team. Henry sees Texans; Henry smashes Texans.
$8,600 on DraftKings
$9,800 on Fanduel
Jerrick McKinnon
McKinnon has been the top-scoring running back in fantasy for two weeks. McKinnon has scored four touchdowns over the past two games. During this two games stretch, he has 60% snap share at running back, 20.5% target share, 17 targets, 15 receptions, 182 yards, and three touchdowns receiving and 74 yards and one touchdown rushing. He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 12.1 yards per reception. The Chiefs play the Seahawks in week 16. The Seahawks give up the second most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. So the table is set for McKinnon and Pacheco to have a holiday feast. Yes, I do like both guys again this week.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,300 on Fanduel
Raheem Mostert (Sunday)
In Week 15, Mostert ran the ball 17 times for 136 yards. He also had two targets which he turned into two receptions for another 20 yards. In Week 16, the Dolphins are playing the Packers. The Packers give up the ninth most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. If Wilson is out again, Mostert should have another spectacular fantasy day.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel
Other Running backs for Week 16
Isaiah Pacheco
$5,700 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Christian McCaffrey
$8,800 on DraftKings
$9,400 on Fanduel
Alvin Kamara
$6,800 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf
Metcalf has 28% target and 36.8% air yards share during the last four games for the Seahawks. With Tyler Lockett out for Week 16, Metcalf will be the focal point of the passing attack. The Seahawks are playing against the Chiefs, and the Chiefs give up the fifth most fantasy points to wide receivers. The Chiefs have given up 19 touchdowns to wide receivers on the season. A wide receiver has scored a touchdown against the Chiefs in 5 of the last six games. This week it is Metcalf’s turn.
$7,100 on DraftKings
$8,000 on Fanduel
DJ Moore
The Lions are up next for the Panthers. The Lions give opposing teams’ wide receivers the second most fantasy points. Last week DJ Moore 6 targets for five receptions, 73 yards, and a touchdown against the Steelers. Darnold will look for him. Since Darnold has been back, Moore has a 26.8% target share of the Panthers’ passing game. He also has a whopping 56.3% of the air yards. The Panthers will need to pass to stay in this game. I like this matchup for Moore.
$5,500 on DraftKings
$7,100 on Fanduel
Chris Moore
The Texans play the Titans in Week 16. The Titans give the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. The Titans give up an average of 15 receptions, 193 yards, and a touchdown per week to wide receivers. Over the past two games, Moore has a 37.3% share of the Texans’ targets. He also has had 40% of the air yards. That is 19 targets for 14 receptions and 166 yards. The matchup is right; he gets another shot against a team that doesn’t defend the pass well.
$4,700 on DraftKings
$6,100 on Fanduel
Other Wide Receivers for Week 16
Darius Slayton
$5,200 on DraftKings
$6,300 on Fanduel
AJ Brown
$8,100 on DraftKings
$8,500 on Fanduel
Demarcus Robinson
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,000 on Fanduel
Tight Ends
Cade Otton (Sunday)
Otton feels like a dart throw, even though he has the easiest matchup for a tight end in week 16. The Buccaneers play the Cardinals in week 16. The Cardinals have given up eight games of double-digit fantasy points this season to tight ends. Yes, That is the most. Otton has been up and down as the Buccaneers spread the ball around very well. This is the week to plug and play with him. He leads the Bucs in snaps at tight end; he gets targeted by Brady somewhat regularly. Otton is a friendly little plug-and-play in Week 16.
$3,000 on DraftKings
$4,900 on Fanduel
Travis Kelce
The Seahawks give up the second most fantasy points to tight ends. The Chiefs play the Seahawks in Week 16. Yet again, Travis Kelce has a career year as fantasy’s number one tight end. Suppose that isn’t enough for you to pay for Kelce in DFS. Kelce leads the Chiefs in target share with 24.5%, air yards share with 24.2%, receiving yards with 1144, and receiving touchdowns with 12. So pay up and play him.
$8,000 on DraftKings
$8,600 on Fanduel
Other Tight Ends for Week 14
Robert Tonyan (Sunday)
$3,700 on DraftKings
$5,200 on Fanduel
Mark Andrews
$5,500 on DraftKings
$6,400 on Fanduel
Jordan Akins
$2,900 on DraftKings
$4,900 on Fanduel
💔Heart Breakers
Quarter Backs
Baker Mayfield
Mayfield isn’t so great at football. The Rams’ passing attack looks pretty bad. To top it off, the Rams are playing the Broncos in Week 16. The Broncos give the least amount of points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. If you want to be cute here for some unknown reason, don’t. After thinking about the possibility of playing Mayfield, I threw a little in my mouth. This is gross.
Taylor Heinicke
Heinicke hasn’t been excellent himself. However, in Week 16, he also gets an incredibly tough matchup against the Niners. The Niners haven’t had a quarterback crack 20 points against them in over seven games. Meanwhile, Heinicke has only one game of over 20 fantasy points. Yes, sometimes this analysis stuff is that simple. Yuck!
Dak Prescott
Dak had a great game last week against the Jaguars. With 256 yards and three touchdowns, that is good. He was a money-maker in this article last week too. This week Dak gets to play against the Eagles. The Eagles give up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. This looks like a heavy dose of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott for the Cowboys in Week 16.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson
As we know, the Commanders are playing the Niners in Week 16. The Niners give up the fewest points to opposing teams running backs. Only four running backs have scored more than ten fantasy points against the Niners all season. Robinson is in for some tough sledding in Week 16. Unfortunately, I think all he will get is coal.
Joe Mixon
Do you know who else doesn’t give up a lot of fantasy production to running backs? That would be the Patriots. The Patriots give up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. The Bengals, unfortunately, are playing the Patriots in Week 16. On top of the tough match, Mixon gives up snaps and touches to Samaje Perine. This is a perfect situation to avoid in DFS.
Texans Running Backs
Dare Ogunbawale and Rex Burkhead are both to be avoided in Week 16. The Texans play the Titans, and the Titans may give up many points to wide receivers, but they give up the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. On top of the tough matchup, let’s not pretend these guys played poorly last week. The Texans are in shambles.
Wide Receivers
Christian Kirk
The Jaguars have a tough matchup with the Jets in Week 16. That may not mean much to Trevor Lawrence. But it does to the wide receivers. The Jets give the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. Kirk is an avoid in DFS for Week 16, although he could have a decent floor game in season-long. Nevertheless, I am playing him if I have him in the fantasy playoffs.
Juju Smith-Schuster
As Juju’s targets go, so goes Juju. In the last six games, Juju has had three double-digit fantasy days and three days with five or fewer points. The matchup in Week 16 is tough. The Chiefs are playing the Seahawks, who give up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. I see Kelce and McKinnon being target monsters this week and Juju missing out.
Robert Woods
Not just Woods but any Titans wide receiver. In Week 8, Woods saw two targets which he turned into two receptions and 26 yards. The Titans can and will run all over the Texans in week 16. Avoid at all costs. Trust me; you are not this desperate.
Tight Ends
George Kittle
The Commanders give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Kittle is a great player in a tough matchup. In the season long, by all means, play him again. But there have been only two double-digit fantasy games for tight ends against the Commanders’ defense all season. So this is not the place to pay up for Kittle in DFS.
David Njoku
The Saints give up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Even though they are second here, they have only given up one double-digit fantasy day to opposing teams’ tight ends. The match is horrible. Here is hoping for Njoku’s volume overcoming the matchup in Week 16 if you are playing him season-long. But avoid him in DFS.
Good luck this week!
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter and @MikeReedyFF for more great content.
