As we close out the year, it is typically the time when people reflect on how the past year went. With that in mind, I wanted to look at where some of the things we do around this time came from. Of course, the new year has always been when people start something new. But, since ancient times, it has been a time for rebirth.
The Winter Solstice is a turning point in the year when the days are getting longer. The Pagans celebrated the return of the sun because of this. Christians welcome the son of God during this time. The Winter Solstice is typically 12 days before New Year’s Day. This is representative of the 12 days of Christmas. Interestingly, these 12 days have always held some meaning for people.
The days between the Winter Solstice and New Year’s Day are a time for setting things straight: thorough housecleaning, paying off debts, returning borrowed objects, reflecting on one’s shortcomings, and mending quarrels. In many cultures, people jump into the sea or a local body of water-literally washing the slate clean. You see people still doing this; for instance, in Boston, there is an event called the Polar Plunge.
Many things we see people doing up to and right after the New Year’s Eve celebration have been this way for a long time. That is because many customs from many cultures believe in ending the year with respect and starting the new year with good intentions.
So let that bad fantasy season you may have had to go. Jump into DFS, starting fresh for you every week, or take a break and prepare for the next season in a few months. Do whatever it is that makes you happy.
Happy New Year!
NOTE: Please remember I will be running a playoff challenge jointly with Ride Hard Breathe Easy again to support this charity. We would love to have you play. If you would like to participate, please feel free to contact me.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields
The Bears play the Lions in Week 17. The Lions give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. In Week 10, Fields lit this Lions’ defense up for 167 yards, two touchdowns passing, another 147 yards, and two more touchdowns rushing. That got him a total of 40.38 points. In the past seven games, only one quarterback has scored less than 20 fantasy points against the Lions. That was Trevor Lawrence, and he got injured during that game. The over-under for this game is 52 points. The Lions will put up points, and the Bears will pass to keep up. Justin will pass all over the fields.
$7,900 on DraftKings
$8,400 on Fanduel
Jared Goff
As I already mentioned, there is a high over-under for this Bears-Lions game of 52 points. So I guess it makes sense that I also like Goff in this game. The Bears give up the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Goff has passed for multiple touchdowns in four of the last five games. He has a healthy complement of really good-skill players at his disposal. This looks like it will be an entertaining game to watch on top of all the fantasy goodness.
$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel
Mike White
The Jets are playing the Seahawks in Week 17. The Seahawks give up the eleventh most points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. White started three games for the Jets before getting hurt, and he passed the ball 129 times in those games. He threw for over 300 yards in two of those games. There will be volume here as the Jets and Seahawks have playoff hopes on the line and will be playing to win this game.
$5,400 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Other quarterbacks for Week 17
Gardener Minshew
$5,500 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Mac Jones
$5,000 on DraftKings
$6,400 on Fanduel
Brock Purdy
$5,500 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley
In the past two games, Barkley has been excellent. Over 80 yards and a touchdown rushing in each game. And 18 targets for 13 receptions and 82 yards combined in those games. The Colts are up next. The Colts give up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. A running back scored over 20 points against the Colts in the past three weeks. This is an absolute smash spot for Barkley.
$8,000 on DraftKings
$9,200 on Fanduel
Travis Etienne
The Texans give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. Running backs average 5.2 yards per carry against the Texans. In Week 5, Etienne had ten carries for 71 yards and three receptions for another 43 yards. This was the start of his taking over as the primary ball carrier for the Jaguars. Etienne has 41 carries for 196 yards over the past two games. He also has three targets in each of those games. He will be involved heavily this week against the Texans. Sacré bleu! Etienne is here for you!
$6,400 on DraftKings
$7,700 on Fanduel
Tyler Allgeier
In the last two games, Allgeier has emerged for the Falcons. He has 35 carries for 213 yards and a touchdown during those two games, producing two excellent double-digit fantasy days. In Week 17, the Falcons are playing against the Cardinals, who give up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. The Cardinals have given up double-digit fantasy scores to running backs for the past five games. In the past two games, we have seen two running backs per team score double-digit fantasy points against this team. Plug him in and win!
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Other Running backs for Week 17
Zonovan Knight
$5,100 on DraftKings
$6,400 on Fanduel
Christian McCaffrey
$9,000 on DraftKings
$9,500 on Fanduel
AJ Dillon
$5,800 on DraftKings
$7,200 on Fanduel
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams
Adams has 1290 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. Adams has a 32.6% target share and 41.2% air yards share. He dominates the Raiders’ passing game. He had a bad game in Week 16 with only two receptions, but he still saw nine targets. Jarrett Stidham will take over at quarterback for the Raiders in Week 17. The Raiders are playing against the Niners. The Niners give the sixth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. In Week 16, not one or two, but three Commanders wide receivers scored double-digit fantasy points against this Niners’ defense. With his volume, this is a great bounce-back game for Adams.
$8,500 on DraftKings
$8,000 on Fanduel
Christian Watson
Watson is day to day with a hip injury. The Vikings are up next for the Packers. The Vikings give opposing teams’ wide receivers the second most fantasy points. Wide receivers average 15 receptions and 204 yards against the Vikings. If he is active, I play Watson; if not, I’ll pivot to Romeo Doubs. Watson saw eight targets which he turned into six receptions for 49 yards before leaving the game with a hip injury in Week 16. He gets volume and has a nose for the end zone. These are great things to have in a great matchup for a DFS play or even a fantasy championship game: Elementary, my dear Watson.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,600 on Fanduel
Jerry Jeudy
Denver is pretty bad. They also just fired their head coach. So why would you consider playing Jeudy in Week 17? Well, they play the Chiefs, and you can pass on them. You also have to pass on the Chiefs to stay in the game. The Chiefs give up 13 receptions, 154 yards, and a touchdown on average to wide receivers every week. That becomes the sixth most fantasy point to wide receivers. Jeudy has double-digit fantasy scores in each of his last three games. He has 27 targets for 21 receptions, 266 yards, and three touchdowns over this stretch. That is a 26.3% target share, a whopping 35.6% share of the air yards, and a 77.8% catch rate. Jeudy, Jeudy, Jeudy.
$6,400 on DraftKings
$6,100 on Fanduel
Other Wide Receivers for Week 17
Drake London
$4,900 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Jakobi Meyers
$5,000 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Richie James
$4,300 on DraftKings
$5,700 on Fanduel
Tight Ends
George Kittle
Purdy to Kittle is an actual thing. With Purdy at the helm, Kittle has 13 targets, ten receptions, 233 yards, and four touchdowns over the past two games. The Niners play the Raiders, and the Raiders give up the eleventh most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Kittle leads the Niners with Purdy as the quarterback with a 26.1% target share. He is heavily involved as a downfield target with 31.8% of the air yards. Kittle is great if you want to pay up at the tight end.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel
Cole Kmet
Back to the Bears and Lions game here. The Lions give up the fifth most points to opposing teams’ tight ends. The Bears’ wide receivers are not so good, and Kmet is heavily involved in the passing game. Kmet leads the Bears in target share with 19.6%. He also has the most receiving touchdowns on the Bears with 5. In Week 10 against this same Lions defense, Kmet hauled in 4 receptions for 74 yards and two touchdowns. Great spot to plug him in as the Bears will need to score in this game.
$4,500 on DraftKings
$5,300 on Fanduel
Other Tight Ends for Week 17
Tyler Conklin
$2,900 on DraftKings
$4,900 on Fanduel
Evan Engram
$4,400 on DraftKings
$5,800 on Fanduel
Travis Kelce
$2,900 on DraftKings
$8,100 on Fanduel
💔Heart Breakers
Quarter Backs
Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes had 352 yards and three touchdowns the last time these two teams met. So I am not pretending he is a lousy play season-long. I would be playing him if he got you to the championship, without a doubt. I have him here because only two quarterbacks have surpassed 20 fantasy points against the Broncos this season. The Broncos give up the least amount of fantasy points to quarterbacks. So, I wouldn’t play him in DFS. He costs too much to play in a bad matchup for me there.
Carson Wentz
Wentz is back to starting for the Commanders. It’s too bad for him it is against the Browns. The Browns give up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Over the past seven games, only one quarterback has scored more than 20 fantasy points against this defense. They have held the likes of Joe Burrow (Week 14) and Josh Allen (Week 11) below 20 fantasy points. For Allen, it was his worst performance of the season. For Burrow, it was his third worst. I don’t even want to play Wentz in super flex. Thoughtfully I could have added him and done this, and I didn’t. YUCK!
Trevor Lawrence
I am not afraid to play Lawrence for season-long. You may have to. But teams don’t have to pass that much against the Texans; they simply prefer to run the ball repeatedly. Over and over and over to get the win. So I think we see a heavy dose of Etienne in Week 17.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs
The Niners give up the least amount of fantasy points to running backs. Only three running backs have hit double-digit fantasy points against the Niner this season. Jacobs will probably make four, but I wouldn’t count on him scoring 20 or more fantasy points this week and avoiding any DFS play this week.
Raheem Mostert / Jeff Wilson Jr.
The Patriots are up next to the Dolphins. The Patriots give up the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Both of these guys just became very touchdown-dependent for Week 17. That is what they will need to break double-digit fantasy points against the Patriots. Play them if you need them for season-long; I hope you don’t need them.
Nick Chubb
Deshaun Watson is coming to save the Browns’ season. YUCK, I think everyone meant to destroy their season or at least destroy Chubb’s fantasy value. Chubb went from this fantastic weekly double-digit scoring machine to flex play at best since Watson took over at quarterback. To top it off, the Browns play the Commanders in Week 17, and the Commanders are tough against running backs. It feels horrible saying yuck, but yuck.
Wide Receivers
Christian Kirk
I had Kirk here last week; he truly broke my heart. I knew it was coming, but it still hurt me/ This week, he has another tough matchup against the Texans. The Texans give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. The Jaguars have proven they will spread the ball around to whichever players will help them win. (I love that, by the way). So this week, look for Evan Engram and Etienne to produce and Kirk and Zay Jones to take somewhat of a back seat. Just great real football from the Jags.
Juju Smith-Schuster
The Broncos give the fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. But in Week 14, Juju had nine receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown against this defense. So, I don’t recommend playing him in DFS. But I am secretly hoping that he at least repeats what he did in Week 14.
Garrett Wilson
Just like Juju, I hate writing about Wilson here. The matchup is terrible. The Jets are playing against the Seahawks, and the Seahawks give up the third-fewest points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. I want Wilson to produce a lot this week. I love Wilson. He may be my favorite rookie. So even though I have him here, I am hoping for a touchdown to push him into double-digit fantasy points this week. It will be him with Mike White at QB if anyone can do it. Maybe he should be a Money Maker?
Tight Ends
Darren Waller
The Raiders are playing the Niners in Week 17. The Niners are tough against tight ends, and Waller has been just OK when he is playing. Only three tight ends this season have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Niners. I am honestly getting a bucket for this one.
Most other Tight Ends
Too many tight ends to name here. A tight end across the board is like eating one of those jelly beans from Harry Potter, you know, every flavor of beans, and you seem only to get vomit, crap, or something else disgusting every time you eat one.
Good luck this week!
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter and @MikeReedyFF for more great content.
