Friends are essential, very important to me. Doing things you like to do with friends is always a good thing. When we first met, one of my friends told me he could tell my fantasy analysis was a labor of love because it was also for him. So this week, my friend Chris Robin and I are doing our yearly team-up articles. Chris writes for team Rise or Fall; here is a link to his Bottom of the Barrel Quarterback article for this week. You will find some blurbs from me in there as well.
It’s always a pleasure working and interacting with Chris. Just an overall great guy,
Are you ready for some football?
If you are new here, this column can be used to help you handle some sit/start questions you might have, but its primary purpose is to take you through the main DFS slate weekly with players that will make you money and players that will break your heart.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts
In Week 12, Hurts played against the Packers, who are pretty tough against quarterbacks for fantasy purposes. Hurts threw for 152 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for 157 yards. He destroyed the Packers’ defense, finishing as the QB2 for the week. In Week 13, the Eagles play the Titans. The Titans give up the sixth most points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Quarterbacks average 286 yards and two touchdowns passing against the Titans. They have given up 20 touchdowns to Quarterbacks on the season. Jalen will lay a hurtin’ on the Titans in Week 13.
$8,000 on DraftKings
$8,800 on Fanduel
Trevor Lawrence
In Week 13, the Jaguars are playing the Lions. The Lions give up the most points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. On top of that, the game has a higher over-under of 51.5 points. The Lions give up an average of 271 yards and two TDs weekly to quarterbacks. Quarterbacks have scored a total of 24 touchdowns against the Lions. Lawrence is coming off 321 yards and three touchdown game against the Ravens. This will be a fun game.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Mike White
It lit the world on fire, looking like the second coming of Patrick Mahomes in Week 12. But instead, the Jets benched Zack Wilson, and White threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns, reviving the Jets’ passing game. The funny thing is the matchup for White is even better in Week 13. He gets to play against the Vikings, who give up the 9th most points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. So it will be a White out for the Jets’ passing game in a good way.
$5,400 on DraftKings
$6,900 on Fanduel
Other quarterbacks for Week 13
Jimmy Garoppolo
$5,700 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Joe Burrow
$6,900 on DraftKings
$8,300 on Fanduel
Justin Herbert
$7,200 on DraftKings
$8,100 on Fanduel
Running Backs
Nick Chubb
The Texans give up the most fantasy points to running backs. Every week a running back has double-digit fantasy points against this defense. Chubb is Chubb. He has double-digit fantasy scores in all but two games this season. The Texans give up 5.2 yards per carry, and Chubb averages 5.2 yards per carry. This is like a match made in heaven. Chubb is currently the RB4 on the season. The Texans have given up double-digit fantasy scores to running backs in only one week this season. That is 10 out of 11 games played. Chubb is going to EXPLODE this week.
$8,000 on DraftKings
$9,600 on Fanduel
Aaron Jones
The Packers play the Bears in Week 13. The Bears give up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. How bad are they? Zonovan Knight scored double-digit fantasy points against them in Week 12. Who? Zonovan Knight, yeah, I know. They played in Week 2. A-A-Ron eviscerated the Bears’ defense for 132 yards, a touchdown rushing, three receptions, 38 yards, and another touchdown receiving. Jones plays 70% of the snaps at running back. Jones averages 5.2 yards per carry. He also has a 14% target share, is third on the team in targets, and second on the team in receptions. BOOM, Jones scores epic fantasy points this week.
$6,900 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel
Dameon Pierce
Mike: The last two weeks, Pierce was horrible. Those were against two top-ten defenses against the run. In Week 13, he is playing against the Browns. The Browns give the second most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. Running backs averaged 166 yards and a touchdown weekly against this defense. Even Eric Ingold had a double-digit fantasy day against the Browns. Who is Eric Ingold, you ask? My answer is exactly. I’ll wait while you look Knight and Ingold up. Anyways Pierce will right the ship in an easy matchup this week. His price is right too!
Chris: Back-to-back weeks of literally nothing from Mr. Pierce. For the second straight week, the Texans fell behind super-fast! Usually, a negative game script in DFS terms can be flipped into a positive thing. Well, that was a huge failure! Pierce is still getting in his work and has had 20 total touches in the last two weeks. I am not worried about the fantasy points and DFS goodness Dameon will or will not provide us. Oddly, folks have tossed him aside after the last few weeks! So let’s stay the course here, at home, against a soft Browns DST. He should be good for around 16-17 carries, 80+ yards, and 3 to 4 receptions for another 20 yards.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$6,500 on Fanduel
D’Andre Swift
Chris: Is it time to face that Swift isn’t that stud workhorse RB1? That’s not a bad thing! Given his propensity for being in and out of the lineup, hurt or sore, I think this new role is perfect! Let fellow RB Jamaal Williams carry the ball 15+ times a game while Swift sees his 6 to 7 rushing attempts. On a per-touch basis, D’Andre is electric! On a per-target basis, D’Andre is a star! Oh, and in the meantime, his price tag stays low across the board as folks fade based on the “lack of work.” Fine by me, especially this week against a Jaguars team giving up 21.09 points a game. The Detroit Lions are also scoring around 25 points per game. So the scene is set for Detroit to hang 30+ points on Sunday, and I am willing to bet Swift is responsible for 75 all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
$5,600 on DraftKings
$6,400 on Fanduel
JaMycal Hasty & Darrell Henderson
JaMycal Hasty was shockingly good after starting RB Travis Etienne Jr. hurt his foot in Week 12. Hasty carried the ball 12 times for 28 yards and caught five passes for 67 yards and a touchdown! As it stands now, Travis has been able to practice this week, albeit walkthrough-type stuff, but as their franchise guy, Jacksonville would be wise to let the kid chill and fully heal. If that is the case, I love JaMycal in DFS formats on Sunday. However, if Etienne Jr. does sit, the Jaguars may also look to get Darrell Henderson Jr. more involved. As a result, I have Hasty around 5-6 carries, 25-30 yards, and several receptions for another 15 yards.
JaMycal Hasty
$5,000 on DraftKings
$6,500 on Fanduel
Darrell Henderson
$4,900 on DraftKings
$5,500 on Fanduel
Other Running backs for Week 13
Josh Jacobs
$6,600 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Austin Ekeler
$8,500 on DraftKings
$9,200 on Fanduel
Kyren Williams
$5,200 on DraftKings
$5,500 on Fanduel
Benny Snell
$4,700 on DraftKings
$4,700 on Fanduel
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown
The Detroit Lions play the Jaguars in week 13. I do believe I already mentioned the over-under is 51.5 for this game. I said that you could pass on the Lions; well, you can also pass on the Jaguars. The Jags give the 9th most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. Fourteen wide receivers have scored touchdowns against the Jags, and fourteen wide receivers have had double-digit fantasy scores against the Jaguars.
Meanwhile, St. Brown has a 28% target share, 75% catch rate, and 24% air yards share of the Lions’ passing game. He has double-digit fantasy scores in four out of the last five games. In Week 12, he had nine receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown against a tough Bears defense. Amon-Ra is HOT; after all, he is the sun god.
$7,100 on DraftKings
$8,000 on Fanduel
Tee Higgins
Higgins has double-digit fantasy scores in four of the last five games. Since Week 10, Higgins has had a 30% target share and 49% air yards share with a 73% catch rate. He is getting massive volume in targets and for large quantities of yards. This week he plays against the Chiefs. The Chiefs give the seventh most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. I wrote about him here last week, and he delivered; I expect him to return this week. Higgins is going to Tee off.
$7,200 on DraftKings
$8,300 on Fanduel
Garett Wilson
The Jets passing game looked alive with Mike White at the helm. I don’t think anyone benefited more from the change at quarterback than Wilson. In Week 12, Wilson had eight receptions for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Well, it gets even better because, in Week 13, the Jets play the Vikings. The Vikings give up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. The wide receiver position averages 15 receptions, 198 yards, and a touchdown per week against the Vikings’ defense. Time for takeoff; buckle up.
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,600 on Fanduel
Other Wide Receivers for Week 13
A.J. Brown
$7,800 on DraftKings
$8,100 on Fanduel
Zay Jones
$4,900 on DraftKings
$6,400 on Fanduel
George Pickens
$5,100 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Richie James Jr.
$3,800 on DraftKings
$5,600 on Fanduel
Tight Ends
George Kittle
Miami gives the third most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Tight ends averaged six receptions and 59 yards against the Dolphins. Two weeks ago, when the Niners played another Bottom team at defending tight ends, the Cardinals, Kittle had a great game. He had four receptions for 84 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins don’t defend the position any better than the Cardinals. Kittle is third on the team in targets and second on the team in receiving touchdowns. This will be a great week to roll him out in DFS.
$5,000 on DraftKings
$6,200 on Fanduel
Foster Moreau
Since Waller was sent to IR, Moreau has 100% snap share. In Week 12 against the Seahawks, who give up the second most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends, Moreau had seven targets which he turned into three receptions for 33 yards and a touchdown. That was a 19% target share. In Week 13, the Raiders play the Chargers. The Chargers give the fifth most points to opposing teams’ tight ends. I did what I said I would if you read Bottom of the Barrel.
$3,600 on DraftKings
$5,500 on Fanduel
Other Tight Ends for Week 13
Tyler Conklin
$3,100 on DraftKings
$5,000 on Fanduel
David Njoku
$3,600 on DraftKings
$5,600 on Fanduel
Pat Freiermuth
$3,600 on DraftKings
$5,900 on Fanduel
💔Heart Breakers
Quarter Backs
Lamar Jackson
The Broncos give the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Jackson has averaged about 15 fantasy points a game when playing teams that defend the quarterback position well. Now, with that said, you are playing him in season-long leagues but not in DFS. Only one quarterback has hit 20 fantasy points against this defense. The Broncos are tough on this side of the ball.
DeShaun Watson
The Texans give up the second least amount of points to quarterbacks in fantasy. Only two quarterbacks have scored more than 20 fantasy points against them this season. That is because of two things. Game script and the fact that they give up the most average yards per carry in the league at 5.2. Nick Chubb will run over this team, allowing Watson to hang loose and get the rust off.
Ryan Tannehill
The Eagles give up the fewest points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Not a single quarterback has scored more than 17 fantasy points against them. That is what we call a trend. A trend that will most likely continue this week. I had Tanny as a heartbreaker last week, too, he didn’t make me a liar then, and he won’t know. I need a bucket for this one.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara
I wrote about Kamara last week as a heartbreaker too. The Saints play the Buccaneers in Week 13. The Buccaneers are the third toughest team against running backs. Kamara has been just ok when playing top 10 defenses against running backs this season. This means you play him in season-long leagues and hope for the best, and you expect not so much. In DFS, avoid him. His over-under, for me, is ten fantasy points, and I think he has to get a touchdown to get the over.
NOTE: I just changed the week and name of the team for Kamara from last week’s Heart Breaker. He scored four fantasy points last week. YUCK
Devin Singletary
The Bills play the Patriots in Week 13. The Patriots are the second toughest team against running backs. They haven’t given up a double-digit fantasy score to a running back since Week 7. I play Singletary in season-long leagues where I have to, but I am not optimistic about it. Complete fade in DFS. I have to brush my teeth just thinking about this one.
Jeff Wilson Jr.
The Dolphins play the Niners in Week 13. The Niners have passed the Patriots as the most challenging team for running backs to get fantasy points against. I don’t care about any Jeff Wilson revenge game narratives. The Dolphins will pass and pass some more. Maybe Wilson can get ten fantasy points, but only three running backs have this season against the Niners.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs is Stefon Diggs, and I would play him in a season-long league. If the Patriots try to take away a wide receiver, it will be Diggs, so that I would avoid him in DFS. The Patriots’ defense gives up the 6th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. This feels like a Gabe Davis or Isaiah McKenzie game.
Amari Cooper
I already wrote about the Texans being tough against quarterbacks. Well, they also give up the 5th fewest points to wide receivers. I say coaching matters, and play calling/game script matters. The Browns will run and run and run some more on the Texans because a toddler could run on the Texans.
Terry McLaurin
The Giants are one of the toughest teams against wide receivers. On top of that, McLaurin has been average for the past two weeks. I wouldn’t say I like the matchup, and I don’t like the current usage. Don’t even be a contrarian for GPP plays; avoid this guy everywhere.
Tight Ends
Daniel Bellinger
The Giants play the Commanders in Week 13. The Commanders give up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. I have read about people getting excited for Bellinger to come back. He will be a little rusty; the matchup is terrible. How bad is the matchup? Not a single tight end has scored more than 11 points against the Commanders this season, and only two have scored ten or more. I command you to get me a bucket.
Robert Tonyan
The Bears are tough on the tight end position. Only two tight ends have broken 10 points against the Bears this season. Tonyan managed two receptions for 11 yards against the Bears in Week 2. The Packers will run the damn ball on the Bears. The is nothing to see here.
NOTE: This season tight end is the worst it has ever been.
Good luck this week!
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter and @MikeReedyFF for more great content.
