I have been struggling with an intro for this article. So I will tell you about some things I learned this season in playing DFS. I had some really good weeks and some really bad weeks. Sometimes a Money Maker would break my heart. Also, on some of the bad weeks I would plug players in based on name and salary that were not part of my process, I didn’t take my own advice, and I lost. I put a lot of effort into analyzing the match ups and how players have been producing but sometimes I couldn’t resist and I would fall into the trap of playing this great name over the guy I thought would do well based on my research. Its a trap, I know its a trap and somehow I fell in it.
Yeah, I am not going to do that anymore.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr
The Raiders play the Washington Football Team in week 13. The WFT is the friendliest defense to quarterbacks in fantasy. The give up a total of 300 yards and 3 touchdowns a week on average to quarterbacks. Carr is tied for the lead in 300 yard games this season. He will get another one this week.
$6,000 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Derek Carr leads the league in average passing yards per game (310.4). Random-fun Tuesday fact
— FantasyFootballChick (Rachel) (@liveocgirl) November 30, 2021
Tom Brady
Atlanta Gives up the fourth most points to opposing quarterbacks. Brady lit up the Falcons for 276 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has not been Tom Terrific in true Brady fashion the last two weeks but this is the Falcons.
$7,200 on DraftKings
$8,100 on Fanduel
Carson Wentz
The Texans give up an average of 258 yards and 2 touchdowns weekly to quarterbacks. In Week 6, Wentz had 223 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Texans. Wentz has also thrown for 3 touchdowns in 3 of the last five games the Colts have played. I expect Wentz to produce this week very well against the Texans in Houston.
$6,100 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Other quarterbacks for Week 13
Tyrod Taylor
$5,300 on DraftKings
$7,00 on Fanduel
Matt Ryan
$5,600 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel
Kirk Cousins
$6,500 on DraftKings
$7,700 on Fanduel
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor will be playing against the Houston Texans and their defense that gives up the 8th most points to opposing teams running backs. Taylor lit them up in week 6 for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns rushing. Taylor hasn’t scored less than 16 fantasy points since Week 3. If you want to pay up for Taylor he will be worth it in Week 13.
$9,200 on DraftKings
$10,500 on Fanduel
Elijah Mitchell
Mitchell has been on a tear. Last week, he had 133 yards and a touchdown rushing and 5 receptions for another 35 yards. This week he gets to play against the Seahawks and a defense that gives up the second most fantasy points to running backs. Seattle has given up 12 total touchdowns to running backs this season. Running backs averaged 105 yards rushing, 71 yards receiving, and a touchdown weekly against the Seahawks. Mitchell will go BOOM in Week 13.
$6,000 on DraftKings
$7,600 on Fanduel
Alexander Mattison
In Week 5, Mattison already had a 22 point scoring game against this Lions defense. He had 113 yards rushing and 7 receptions, 40 yards, and a touchdown receiving in that game. Mattison gets to play against that same Lions defense in week 13 in a bell-cow role. The Lions are the third friendliest defense to running backs giving up 141 yards total and a touchdown to running backs on average weekly. Alexander will be great this week.
$7,600 on DraftKings
$8,700 on Fanduel
Other Running Backs for Week 13
Darrell Henderson
$6,100 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Joe Mixon
$8,100 on DraftKings
$9,400 on Fanduel
Jamaal Williams
$5,400 on DraftKings
$6,500 on Fanduel
Wide Receivers
Marquise Brown
Brown has double-digit targets in 4 straight games. Brown has a 23% target share for the Ravens. In week 13 the Ravens play against the Steelers. The Steelers are a bottom 10 defense against wide receivers giving up an average of 13 receptions, 168 yards, and a touchdown per week. Lights, camera, action, because it’s Hollywood.
$6,500 on DraftKings
$7,100 on Fanduel
Hunter Renfrow
Slot receivers have done some serious damage against this Washington Football Team defense. The WFT gives up the fourth most defense to wide receivers. Renfrow has a 20% target share on the season. Renfrow has had 9 targets in three of the last four games. With it looking like Darren Waller will be out this week Renfrow is in for another nice day.
$5,800 on DraftKings
$6,400 on Fanduel
Josh Reynolds
Reynolds tied for the lead in targets on the Lions in week 12 with five. He turned that into 3 receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown. The Vikings give up the third most points to wide receivers in fantasy. The Vikings give up weekly double-digit scores to wide receivers, you can look for Reynolds to continue to connect with Jared Goff in Week 13.
$3,400 on DraftKings
$5,100 on Fanduel
Josh Reynolds has ran 90% of the routes for the #Lions the last two weeks – only Amon-Ra St. Brown (94%) has more
Reynolds tied for team lead in targets (5) and led in yards (70) while scoring a TD in Week 12. Looking like the top WR option there
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 26, 2021
Other Wide Receivers for Week 13
Brandon Aiyuk
$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Brandin Cooks
$5,900 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Odell Beckham Jr.
$5,500 on DraftKings
$6,000 on Fanduel
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas
Thomas is back in the lineup now with a start in Week 12. Thomas played 79% of the snaps and had a 17% target share in Week 12. He is back. In Week 13, he gets to play against the Raiders who give up the second most points weekly to tight ends. Tights ends on average 65 yards receiving and a touchdown per week against the Raiders. As a primary part of the passing offense for the WFT, Thomas should be heavily involved.
$4,000 on DraftKings
$5,600 on Fanduel
Pat Freiermuth
Did you know that Freiermuth leads the Steelers in receiving touchdowns with 5? Bet you didn’t know that. In Week 12, he had 4 targets, which he turned into 4 receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown. He is heavily utilized in the red zone. This week he gets to play against the Ravens defense that gives up the third most fantasy points to tight ends.
$4,200 on DraftKings
$5,400 on Fanduel
Rob Gronkowski
In the past two games, Gronk has seen 18 targets and turned those into 13 receptions, 194 yards. In Week 13, he is playing a Falcons team that is actually good against tight ends, but Gronk hit them up for 4 receptions, 39 yards, and 2 touchdowns in week 2. He is one of Brady’s favorite targets and you can expect him to produce in Week 13.
$5,300 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Rob Gronkowski is averaging 18.2 PPR PPG in the 5 games he was healthy with which ranks 1st overall.
He was easily obtainable for the price of free before the 2020 szn.
— Michael ProScout Liu (@MiKeMeUpP) November 29, 2021
Other Tight Ends for Week 13
Kyle Pitts
$5,600 on DraftKings
$6,200 on Fanduel
George Kittle
$5,900 on DraftKings
$6,300 on Fanduel
Jack Doyle
$3,300 on DraftKings
$5,000 on Fanduel
💔 Heart Breakers
Quarterbacks
Andy Dalton
Dalton threw for over 300 yards last week. He looked pretty good. But this week Dalton will be playing against the Cardinals defense that gives up the third fewest points to quarterbacks in fantasy. Only three quarterbacks have scored over 20 points against the Cardinals defense all season. At least it’s at home in Chicago.
Joe Burrow
The past three weeks have been difficult for Burrow. The Chargers are up this week. The Chargers give up the 6th fewest points to quarterbacks. Looks like a 200 yard or so day for Burrow with Mixon potentially running all over the Chargers.
Trevor Lawrence
Last week I had Lawrence as a Money Maker and this week as a Heart Break, so much can change in a week. The Rams have a pretty stingy defense against quarterbacks. They have only given up over 20 points three times this season.
Running Backs
David Montgomery
We know the Cardinals are good against the pass, well they are also good against the run. The Cardinals have only given up 4 touchdowns all season to opposing running backs. They have also only given up a single 100-yard rushing game this season. Doesn’t look great for Monty in Week 13.
Najee Harris
Najee flopped in Week 12 against the Bengals. This week he goes up against the Ravens top 10 defense against running backs. Only 1 running back has rushed for over 100 yards against the Ravens, and only 1 Running back has over 100 yards receiving against the Ravens. You are playing him season-long but in DFS avoid this guy.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase
Last week, Chase had his worst game as a pro seeing only 3 targets, which he turned into 3 receptions and 39 yards. In Week 13, the Bengals play the Chargers and their defense that gives up the second fewest points to wide receivers. I really don’t want any part of the Bengals wide receivers in DFS.
Eli Moore
From Money Maker to Heart Breaker in just a week, such as the way of fantasy football. The Eagles are good against wide receivers. They have given up 5 double-digit scores to wide receivers all season and only one wide receiver has topped 20 points. On top of all that the Jets are just bad. I am not playing Moore in DFS or season-long this week
Terry McLaurin
In three of the last 4 weeks, Terry has not been scary at all. The targets have been there but the production has not been. It only gets worse in Week 13 when the WFT plays against the Raiders. With the recent dip in production, other offensive weapons active, and a tough match-up, I would find playing Terry this week very scary.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet
I had Kmet as a player to add in Untangling the Wire as he saw 11 targets in Week 12. In Week 13, he is playing against literally the toughest defense against tight ends in the league. They have given up a single 100-yard game and a single touchdown to tight ends this season, That was George Kittle. I know George Kittle and Cole Kmet is no George Kittle.
TJ Hockenson
I can’t remember the last time I wrote about Hockenson. Hockenson has been up and down with targets and production this season. The Vikings have also given up only a single touchdown to tight ends this season and don’t give up a lot of yards as well. Only twice have tight ends had over 50 yards against the Vikings. This is a situation I am pretending doesn’t exist at all, I am just going to look at this as if Hockenson has been removed from the planet in Week 13.
Gerald Everett
In Week 12, Everett led the Seahawks with a 29% target share. He had 9 targets, 5 receptions, 37 yards, and a touchdown. People might look at that and say “OMG, I have to add him and play him this week”. No, you don’t, don’t bother, the match-up is really bad. The Niners give up the 5th fewest points to tight ends. Only three tight ends have had double-digit scoring days against the Niners.
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter, follow @MikeReedyFF for more great content, and visit back soon for Mike’s weekly Untangling the Wire
