Week 1 is almost here. I cannot contain my excitement! It is so great to have my drafts done and move into focusing on DFS with MMHB. So, welcome back.
I am super excited this year as it is my son’s second season playing fantasy. We get to bond over his draft, waiver moves and tough line up decisions. I can say I didn’t help him with his draft this year, and he didn’t need me. Its fun to see his progress playing, almost as much fun as it was watching him play sports growing up.
If you are new to reading my work, thank you for checking it out. If you are not new, welcome back. I am super happy to have you here.
This column can be used to help you handle some start/sit questions you might have, but its primary purpose is to take you through the main DFS slate weekly with players that will make you money and players that will break your heart.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr
Playing the Chargers in Week 1. Vegas says it will be a shootout with an over/under of 52.5. Carr should be passing a lot, and with his new coach and wide receiver, I expect a big day in Week 1. In 2021 Carr threw for 4804 yards and 23 touchdowns. With Davante Adams added to the team, he will exceed those numbers.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel
Justin Herbert
You can feel confident running it back in the same game with Herbert against the Raiders. Herbert has excellent wide receivers and an outstanding receiving running back. This offense comes primed to go nuts in 2022, starting in Week 1. In 2021 Herbert threw for 5014 yards and 38 touchdowns; he will be lighting it up weekly.
$7,600 on DraftKings
$8,400 on Fanduel
Jameis Winston – The Saints are playing the Falcons in Atlanta. Winston has looked very effective in Saint’s new offense. He has incredible skill position players surrounding him. I like him in Week 1 against the Falcons’ bottom-tier defense for a lower-priced option. This one is daring, I know, but if you are looking for a lower-cost viable play, here it is.
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Other quarterbacks for Week 1
Lamar Jackson
$7,300 on DraftKings
$8,500 on Fanduel
Jalen Hurts
$6,800 on DraftKings
$8,000 on Fanduel
Trevor Lawrence
$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor
The Colts are playing the Texans in Week 1. The Texans project to be pretty bad again in 2022. Last season Taylor scored 27 points in Week 6 and 24 points in Week 13 against the Texans. I know it’s a new season, but it looks like the same old Texans. So Taylor for 20-something points in Week 1 looks like a sure thing. Taylor will mess with Texas, or at least the Texans!
$9,100 on DraftKings
$10,200 on Fanduel
Najee Harris
Najee had a sprained Lisfranc during the preseason, yet he is still out there and, I might add, looking pretty good. With that, I am not quitting him in Week 1 of 2022. Najee had over 300 carries last season and 74 receptions. Volume is king; I am betting on volume here in Week 1. So, say it with me “VOLUME MATTERS.” Najee is the volume king.
$6,400 on DraftKings
$8,200 on Fanduel
Damien Harris
In 2021 Harris had either 100 yards or a TD against the Dolphins. The Patriots are going to utilize Harris at the goal line, and they are going to give him the ball. Harris had 929 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2021; he will exceed those numbers in 2022 starting Week 1. I also like Rhamondre Stevenson, as the backfield condensed to these two guys.
$5,700 on DraftKings
$6,900 on Fanduel
Other Running backs for Week 1
Aaron Jones
$6,700 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel
James Conner
$7,000 on DraftKings
$7,700 on Fanduel
Dameon Pierce
$4,800 on DraftKings
$5,400 on Fanduel
NOTE: Everyone will be playing Pierce. I love him in cash games, but I will avoid him in GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams
Adams is simply a great wide receiver. He and Derek Carr have chemistry as they were teammates in college. This game against the Chargers projects to be a shootout. Adams will be the focal point of this passing attack. I am excited about this game!
$8,100 on DraftKings
$8,500 on Fanduel
JuJu Smith-Schuster
There is a 53.5 over/under for the Chiefs/Cardinals game in Week 1. We love shootouts for the fantasy goodness that they can bring. Training camp taught us that JuJu is an excellent target for Patrick Mahomes, especially in the red zone. I am going with JuJu in Week 1 and betting on the combination of the shootout and quarterback to bring JuJu back to being a fantasy star.
$5,200 on DraftKings
$6,400 on Fanduel
Marquise Brown
What did I say about the Chiefs/Cardinals game? Oh, yeah, that is high over/under—the highest of the week. So let’s do a little run back with Hollywood Brown connecting with his college quarterback, working to keep up with the Chiefs. I love what this does for Browns’ value, playing in an offense that passes a lot. Arizona hasn’t had a shootout like this since the Erps and the OK Corral.
$6,200 on DraftKings
$6,900 on Fanduel
Other Wide Receivers for Week 1
Hunter Renfrow
$5,800 on DraftKings
$5,900 on Fanduel
Christian Kirk
$5,100 on DraftKings
$5,800 on Fanduel
Jarvis Landry
$5,000 on DraftKings
$5,700 on Fanduel
Robert Woods
$5,600 on DraftKings
$5,600 on Fanduel
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews
In 2021 Andrews had a 24% target share of the Ravens’ passing game. He had 107 receptions, 1361 yards, and nine touchdowns on the season. He is the primary option in the Ravens’ passing game for 2022. I don’t need to say anything else. Andrews is good and saw 153 targets last season, by far the most for any tight end. Play him Week 1, I am.
$6,800 on DraftKings
$7,900 on Fanduel
Zach Ertz
In the final four weeks of the 2021 season, Ertz had a 25% target share in the Cardinals’ passing game. He will be the second option for Kyler Murray in the main slate projects to be the highest-scoring game. I keep coming back to that, don’t I?
$4,400 on DraftKings
$5,600 on Fanduel
Hunter Henry
Henry had 50 receptions for 603 yards and nine touchdowns in 2021. He is the primary red zone target for Mac Jones. He may be a little touchdown-dependent, but his price is right in DFS. If you aren’t getting a high-end guy, I like Ertz and Henry as I am writing about both guys.
$3,800 on DraftKings
$5,400 on Fanduel
Other Tight Ends for Week 1
Travis Kelce
$6,600 on DraftKings
$8,000 on Fanduel
Darren Waller
$5,400 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Robert Tonyan
$3,900 on DraftKings
$5,100 on Fanduel
💔Heart Breakers
Quarter Backs
Trey Lance
I know everyone loves him. I know he will run with the ball. I know he was OK in his three games with playing time last season. However, he has looked subpar through the preseason. If you drafted him in redraft and he is your starter, feel free to play him. However, I avoid it at all costs in DFS for Week 1.
Joe Burrow
For starters, I love Joe Burrow. He helped me win a championship last season. Why? Because he was terrific in Weeks 16 and 17. Want to know when he was just average? In both games against the Steelers, that’s when. He did throw for three touchdowns against the Steelers in Week 3 last season, so there is hope. I am playing him season-long. I am not in DFS. Me thinks the price is too high.
Justin Fields
Do you know why? Because I wanted a really easy pick for Week 1. This offense doesn’t look good. Fields doesn’t look good on the football field. Yuck, yuck, more yuck.
Running Backs
Cordarelle Patterson
In 2021 the Saints were one of the most formidable teams on running backs in fantasy. Patterson was good last season. Atlanta’s offense doesn’t look great this season. Patterson potentially gets to split carries; there is talk of putting him on touch counts as he wore down at the end of last season. I want to see what happens before I put my money on Patterson in 2022.
Breece Hall
Another training camp darling that will make people upset that I have him here. The Ravens are really good against the run. The Ravens are not great against the pass. I see Flacco throwing more to stay in this game. I am passing on Hall in DFS Week 1.
Saquon Barkley
I want you to know I love Barkley for this 2022 season. I love that Daboll is the new head coach for the Giants. I think Barkley has an outstanding season. In Week 1, the Giants play the Titans. The Titans were the most brutal defense against running backs in fantasy last season. They like to stop the run historically. So season-long, I am playing him; DFS, I am passing on him.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel
You see that I’m not too fond of Trey Lance for Week 1. Who catches balls from Trey Lance? In the preseason, it was Brandon Aiyuk, not Deebo Samuel. As goes, the QB goes the passing game for me this week. Out on Deebo in DFS, that hurts me to say. I feel dirty now.
Jalen Waddle
I love the new offense, love Waddle. He is one of my highest-rostered players in season-long. I hate that he missed most of the preseason with a soft tissue injury. There is a new offense he hasn’t been on the field for in training camp. His chemistry in the short passing game could help him get involved. I am just avoiding him in DFS week 1.
Amari Cooper
The Panthers’ defense is pretty good. Cooper’s quarterback is not so good. This looks like the Nick Chubb show to me in Week 1. The second half of the season will probably be much kinder to Cooper than the first half, at least football-wise.
Tight Ends
George Kittle
I am staying consistent with avoiding the Niners’ passing game weapons. Kittle may have to block a lot while Lance runs. We know Kittle has the talent. Man, is he a great tight end. But I throw up in my mouth thinking about playing him in DFS Week 1. Tough defense and an offense that hasn’t looked ready in the preseason. Just ew.
Mike Gesicki
The Dolphins have a new offense which I like. What I don’t like is that Gesicki isn’t lining up out wide anymore. Also, I wouldn’t say I like that he had a total of 2 receptions for 22 yards in two games against the Patriots last season. The Patriots’ defense is faster and younger this year. After writing about Kittle and Gesicki, I need to brush my teeth; I’ll be right back.
Kyle Pitts
My mouth no longer tastes like vomit because I loved Kyle Pitts in 2021, but I strongly dislike Kyle Pitts against the Saints. In 2 career games against the Saints, Pitts’ numbers look like this: twelve total targets, five receptions, 70 yards, and no touchdowns. Pitts is the pits in Week 1.
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter and @MikeReedyFF for more great content.
