Semis, Oh Yeahhhh! This is the week of the semi-finals in most leagues. So if you are reading this for redraft or dynasty purposes, you are more than likely playing in the playoffs and one of four teams left. Good Luck!
Are you going to be home for the holidays? Not going to see family and extended family this Christmas? I hope that doesn’t have you feeling down. As Monty Python taught us, Always look on the bright side of life! You don’t have to listen to Uncle Billy’s obnoxious stories, and your cousins bratty kids won’t be tearing apart your house and jumping on the furniture. Single Auntie Jennifer won’t be getting wasted on eggnog and causing a scene, at least not at your house anyway. You can see all the positives right?
You may feel as happy as a person in a Popeye’s commercial now, I know I do. So lets get to the football shall we.
If you are new around here this is how it works:
Money Maker – I think this person will perform well this week and be better than projections
Heart Breaker – These players will not meet projections
Quarterbacks
💰 Money Makers
Tom Brady ($7,900 on FanDuel and $6,600 on DraftKings)
Are you surprised I am saying Tom Brady? Well it should be set in stone. He is playing against the Falcons. The only person they have stopped was Derek Carr. With Ronald Jones going on the Covid list, and the Falcons actually playing well against the run of late, I can see Brady throwing the ball 50 times in this game against a defense that really isn’t very good at defending the pass.
Best Week 15 QB Matchups
– Tom Brady vs Falcons (allowing 23.1 fantasy PPG to QB)
– Jared Goff vs Jets (allowing 22.34 fantasy PPG to QB)
– Lamar Jackson vs Jaguars (allowing 21.65 fantasy PPG to QB)— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 16, 2020
Jared Goff ($7,800 on FanDuel and $6,300 on DraftKings)
The Jets are competing for the number 1 pick, which means seldom are they competing against the other teams quarterback. The Jets are the second worst defense against quarterbacks in the NFL, only the aforementioned Falcons are worse. Goff should have a very pass-happy day, netting 300 yards and 2 touchdowns, which is essentially what quarterbacks average against the Jets.
Ryan Tannehill ($7,700 on FanDuel and $6,700 on DraftKings)
Tannehill is coming off yet another multiple touchdown game against the Jaguars. In Week 15 he will play the Lions. The Lions defense has given up multiple touchdowns and/or 300 yards to the passing attack in all but 3 games this season. This sets up nice for another multiple touchdowns game for Tannehill, as the Titans look to continue to roll their playoff push.
Other quarterbacks I like:
There is the obvious: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert.
The not so obvious: Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, and Philip Rivers.
💔 Heart Breakers
Tua Tagovailoa
Tua had a big game in Week 14; 316 yards passing and a total of 3 touchdowns from both passing and rushing. You might think its time to ride the hot hand, you would be wrong. The Patriots are very unkind to quarterbacks, ranking as the third best defense against quarterbacks in the league. Their offense may be in shambles, but the Secondary is still elite. They are also notoriously good against rookie quarterbacks, just ask Justin Herbert..
Baker Mayfield
Baker has been tearing it up lately. 3 straight weeks of multiple touchdowns and two straight with over 300 yards. This week he gets the Giants who give up an average of 261 yards and a touchdowns per game. Its going to be tough going for Baker.
Deshaun Watson
Watson gets to play the Colts in Week 15. He passed for 341 yards against them in Week 13 but had no passing touchdowns. With a receiver group decimated by injuries and suspensions up against a top 10 defense, he is an avoid.
Other quarterbacks to avoid: Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater.
Running Backs
💰 Money Makers
Austin Ekeler
The Raiders are the third friendliest defense to running backs this season, giving up 109 yards rushing and 43 yards receiving to the position. Ekeler is heavily involved both as a rusher and pass catcher in the Chargers offense. In Week 14 Jonathan Taylor decimated the Raiders defense for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ekeler should have a wonderful game.
Top-5 Projected RBs in Wk 15 (PPR)
1. Dalvin Cook – 19.4
2. Aaron Jones – 19.0
3. Derrick Henry – 17.9
4. James Robinson – 16.4
5. Austin Ekeler – 16.3— PFF (@PFF) December 16, 2020
Mike Davis ($7,400 on FanDuel and $6,500 on DraftKings) Saturday Slate
The Packers are not very good against the run. Christian McCaffrey will miss Week 15 and Mike Davis will start once again for the Panthers. In Week 14 Davis totaled 93 yards and two scores against the Broncos. Are you picking up what I’m putting down? Play Davis.
Jonathan Taylor ($7,400 on FanDuel and $7,200 on DraftKings)
I just mentioned what this guy did last week, 150 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. This week he is playing against the Texans who happen to be the second kindest defense to running backs there is. Taylor continues to scorch and put your fantasy team on his back.
Other running backs to play:
The obvious: Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry.
The not so obvious: D’Adre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Jeff Wilson.
💔 Heart Breakers
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
You know who really likes CEH? I do. This week for him to produce it will be in the passing game. The Chiefs play the Saints, the Saints are literally the toughest defense against running backs in the NFL. Last week getting torched on the ground was legitimately the first time in years! I would expect a renewed focus to not let that happen again. Also, with the way the Chiefs pass the ball, we might not even notice if they don’t run at all, if they even need too.
Chris Carson
Another running back I genuinely like. If you have him I am sure you are playing him. Unfortunately, the Washington Football Team is hard to run against. The give up and average of 83 yards per game rushing and have only given up 6 touchdowns to running backs on the season. They have an elite defensive line, matching up with a below average Seattle o-line, not always the best recipe for finding success on the ground.
Ezekiel Elliott
Zeke hasn’t topped 100 yards or scored a touchdown since Week 11. I know most of you are always start your studs, but this guy isn’t a stud right now. The Niners are also only giving up 74 yards per game rushing. WOOF!
Other running backs that will cost you in Week 15: Gio Bernard, Frank Gore, and Leonard Fournette.
Wide Receivers
💰 Money Makers
Mike Evans ($7,100 on FanDuel and $6,500 on DraftKings)
The Falcons just plain can’t defend the pass. Evan is always a threat to score. If there is one wide receiver, I would want to play this week on the Buccaneers it is Evans. Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin may also prove to be productive.
#Buccaneers target shares in 5 games with Antonio Brown:
Mike Evans – 21%
Antonio Brown – 18%
Chris Godwin – 18%Rob Gronkowski – 13%
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) December 16, 2020
Robert Woods ($7,400 on FanDuel and $6,800 on DraftKings)
The Jets are a bottom 10 defense against wide receivers. Woods has been pretty consistent this year but had a down week in Week 14 with only 5 receptions for 32 yards. This week he bounces back against the Jets. This looks like a 90 yards and a touchdown game against a bottom feeder defense.
T.Y. Hilton ($6,800 on FanDuel and $5,500 on DraftKings)
Hilton has 4 touchdowns over the past three games. He hit the Texans up for 8 receptions, 110 yards and a touchdown in Week 13. He gets to play the Texans again this week. I may need a pep talk from my grandma if this is the kind of production you get from that.
Other wide receivers to play:
The obvious: Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf.
The not so obvious: Corey Davis, AJ Brown, and Willie Snead.
💔 Heart Breakers
Jamison Crowder
You know who has a really good defense, the Rams. I mean REALLY good, like number 1 against wide receiver good. They simply shut the position down. Crowder is a wide receiver, Crowder will be shut down.
DeVante Parker
Another team great against the pass is the Patriots. Parker is on track to play this week, but if you plan on putting him in your line up you will be wishing he didn’t play. In Week 1, Parker had 47 yards against the Patriots, this is probably what you can expect, especially with Tua and DVP still trying to build their chemistry.
Robby Anderson
The Packers defense is top 6 against wide receivers. They have given up only one 100 yard game to a wide receiver all season. This looks like a bad week to play Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, who was released from the Covid protocol list on Wednesday.
Other wide receivers will cost you: Tyler Lockett, Justin Jefferson, and Cole Beasley.
Tight Ends Week 5
💰 Money Makers
Rob Gronkowski ($6,300 on FanDuel and $4,200 on DraftKings)
We have established that the Falcons cannot cover the pass. Well that extends to every position that catches the football. The Falcons are fifth friendliest defense to tight ends in the league. With RoJo out this week, the Buccaneers will pass a lot, and Gronk has always been a favorite target of Brady. When the stars align, the stars align.
Robert Tonyan ($6,500 on FanDuel and $4,500 on DraftKings) Saturday Slate
For four straight games Tonyan has had 5 targets per game. All he has done was turn those 20 targets into 19 receptions, 186 yards, and 4 touchdowns over the four game span, notching a touchdown grab every game. The Panthers are the 7th worst defense against tight ends. It looks like another game to keep his streak alive.
Robert Tonyan in 2020:
52 targets
46 receptions
533 yards
9 TDsMore TDs than incompletions. Madness.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 16, 2020
Other tight ends to play:
The obvious Travis Kelce and Darren Waller.
The not so obvious: Eric Ebron, Evan Engram, and Noah Fant.
💔 Heart Breakers
Dalton Schultz
The Niners are the best defense against tight ends in the league. The Cowboys aren’t very good. Schultz should not even be a consideration.
Dallas Goedert
Last week the Cardinals held Evan Engram to 14 yards. The Cardinals have only 3 touchdowns to the position this season. The Eagles will play their rookie quarterback up against the fifth best defense against tight ends. It doesn’t look good for Goedert or Zach Ertz in Week 15.
Other tight ends that will cost you: Drew Sample, Jonnu Smith, and Austin Hooper.
If you are looking for Defenses to stream, take a look at The Stream Option by Kyle Larson.
Thanks for checking out our Money Makers and Heart Breakers column. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter, follow @MikeReedyFF for more great content, and visit back for Mike’s weekly UNtangling the Wire (waiver wire) article.
