Merry Christmas!
Have you been a good little boy or girl? Fantasy Santa has been watching you. Gee, that sounds like some sort of bad porn flick, doesn’t it? Well, I’ll leave that stuff up to other websites. You probably already know where to look for that type of thing and don’t need any help from me.
So again I say Merry Christmas! Now let’s get on to the Money Makers and the Heart Breakers and put that damn Fantasy Football Championship under your tree.
If you are new around here this is how it works:
Money Maker – I think this person will perform well this week and be better than projections
Heart Breaker – These players will not meet projections
Quarterbacks
💰 Money Makers
Jalen Hurts ($8,200 on FanDuel and $7,000 on DraftKings) Sunday Slate
I am jumping on the recency-biased bandwagon for championship week. We saw his floor game Week 14 against the Saints who are a top-3 defense against quarterbacks. Last week Hurts exploded against the Cardinals. He gets the Cowboys in Week 16. The Cowboys have had issues with quarterbacks. Expect the Cowboys to be “Hurting” after Week 16.
🗣️ START JALEN HURTS pic.twitter.com/uIGmvfSMOX
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 23, 2020
Baker Mayfield ($7,600 on FanDuel and $6,100 on DraftKings) Sunday Slate
Four straight games of 300 yards and or multiple touchdowns. In Week 16 the Browns play the Jets. I know, I know, last week the Jets looked good against the Rams. I have no explanation for that. The Jets have the second friendliest defense for quarterbacks in fantasy. Baker will be cooking in Week 16.
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,400 on DraftKings) Saturday Slate
Saved his day in Week 15 by rushing for 2 touchdowns against a tough Patriots defense. In Week 16 he gets the Raiders bottom 10 defense and should have some of his receivers back on the field. If you are streaming he is in a nice spot where he will produce a solid floor from passing and rushing.
Other quarterbacks to play in Week16:
There are the obvious: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Justin Herbert
The not so obvious: Tom Brady, Mitch Trubisky, and Jared Goff
💔 Heart Breakers
Josh Allen
Week 16 brings the Patriots defense. They are the third toughest defense on quarterbacks in the NFL. In Week 9, Allen had 154 yards passing and 23 yards and a touchdown rushing. That is his floor. If you have him, you are playing him. We are looking at a 235 yards and a touchdown type of game this week. He won’t kill you, but I don’t see him exploding against the Patriots defense.
Russell Wilson
You know who else is really good against quarterbacks? The Rams. They are literally the best defense against quarterbacks in the NFL. Wilson had his worst game of the season against this same defense in Week 10: 248 yards and 2 interceptions. You can expect this Rams defense to give him fits again this week as they want to bounce back after that Jets debacle..
Philip Rivers
We will round out this segment with the Steelers who are also top three against quarterbacks; do you see a trend here? Rivers has been pretty solid with multiple touchdowns in 5 straight games. His floor will be there in this game too. Solid, but not spectacular.
Other quarterbacks to avoid: Kirk Cousins and Lamar Jackson
Running Backs
💰 Money Makers
Leonard Fournette ($12,000 on FanDuel and $5,500 on DraftKings) Saturday Slate
Ronald Jones will miss Week 16, as he did Week 15. Fournette started in Week 15 and responded with 49 yards and 2 touchdowns rushing and another 16 yards receiving. In Week 16 the Buccaneers play the Lions, the Lions are the worst defense against running backs in the NFL. The Lions give up an average of 116 yards rushing, 45 yards receiving, and 2 touchdowns per game to running backs. Play Fournette; just play him.
Why not? Leonard Fournette is a RB1 for the finals.
+ 19.6 expected PPR points last week
+ Detroit allows the third most carries
+ Also 30th in rushing EPA defense
+ Bucs' 31.5 team total is 2nd highest— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 23, 2020
David Montgomery ($7,800 on FanDuel and $7,700 on DraftKings) Sunday Slate
Who is tearing up the NFL right now? Four weeks in a row, Montgomery has over 100 yards and a touchdown or multiple touchdowns. He has literally carried teams into the fantasy finals. The Jaguars and their defense, which gives up 166 yards rushing per game and another 46 yards receiving per game, are up in Week 16. This will make 5 weeks in a row of spectacular play from Montgomery.
Giovani Bernard ($6,000 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings) Sunday Slate
Last week against the Steelers and their incredible run defense, Bernard had a total of 97 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s up against the Texans in Week 16 and the second worst defense against the run. If you need him in the championship, I would play him.
Other running backs to play in Week 16:
The obvious: Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, and Derrick Henry
The not so obvious: Le’Veon Bell, Miles Sanders, J.K. Dobbins, and J.D. McKissic
💔 Heart Breakers
Jonathan Taylor
The Colts play the Steelers in Week 16. The Steelers are the second toughest defense against running backs in the NFL. Taylor has been phenomenal the past 4 games but will have work cut out for him against the Steelers.
Chris Carson
Since Week 4, the Rams defense has not given up more than 65 yards rushing to a running back. The Seahawks play the Rams in Week 16. Carson had a subpar game in Week 15 against the Washington Football Team, and this week lines up as another tough week for Carson to find yardage.
Mike Davis
The Washington Football Team held Chris Carson to 63 yards rushing last week. Davis rushed for 59 yards against a not-so-great Packers defense in Week 15. Christian McCaffrey is doubtful for Week 16, and the Panthers play WFT. It doesn’t bode well for Davis to have a productive day.
Other running backs that will cost you in Week 16: D’Andre Swift and James Robinson
Wide Receivers
💰 Money Makers
Robert Woods ($7,300 on FanDuel and $7,000 on DraftKings) Sunday Slate
The Seahawks have been the worst defense against wide receivers this season. The Seahawks give up an average of 211 yards per game to wide receivers. In Week 9 it was Josh Reynolds that hit them up for 94 yards. Woods had a 24% target share in Week 15 and leads the league in targets per route run.
The only players with at least a quarter of their team's targets in every game over the last month:
Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs
Marquise Brown
Robert Woods— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) December 23, 2020
Emannuel Sanders
Michael Thomas it out for Week 16. Drew Brees is back in the lineup Week 16. The Saints play the Vikings, who are the third friendliest defense to wide receivers and give up an average of 178 yards per game to the position. Sanders is a nice plug and play option for Week 16.
Antonio Brown ($6,800 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings) Saturday Slate
In Week 15, Brown had 5 receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown on a team-leading 7 targets. Week 16 brings a Lions defense that gives up 194 yards and a touchdown a week to wide receivers. Brown has a special place in Tom Brady’s heart, which means he might need a special place in your lineup.
Antonio Brown continues to be Tom Brady’s favorite receiver, BUT Arians continues to limit his reps.
Yesterday AB played just 25 snaps compared to 44 for Godwin & 39 for Evans.
Despite this, he tied the team lead in targets with 7 going 5/93/1 pic.twitter.com/kSzwxMoRXx
— Ari (@FFesq) December 21, 2020
Other wide receivers to play in Week 16:
The obvious: Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Tyreek Hill, and Calvin Ridley
The not so obvious: Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins
💔 Heart Breakers
DK Metcalf
The Rams are the #1 defense against wide receivers. In Week 10 Jalen Ramsey made Metcalf’s day miserable, holding him to 2 receptions for 28 yards. You are probably playing him if you have him, but it’s going to be a long game for Metcalf this week.
Cole Beasley
The Patriots have been a top 5 defense against the pass all season. In Week 8, Beasley was held to 2 receptions for 24 yards. Only three receivers have topped 100 yards against the Patriots all season. Sit Beasley.
Russell Gage
Gage has been on a tear lately, so you might be tempted to play him. In Week 16 the Falcons play the Chiefs. Only the Rams give up less fantasy points to wide receivers than the Chiefs. I think you can pick up what I just put down, or you can just not play Gage.
Other wide receivers will cost you: Tyler Lockett and Justin Jefferson
Tight Ends Week 5
💰 Money Makers
Austin Hooper ($5,100 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings) Sunday Slate
The Browns passing game has been clicking on all cylinders. The Jets are the worst defense against tight ends in the NFL. Hooper is the Browns tight end and the Browns play the Jets in Week 16. I know you hate it when I spell it out like this but I can’t help it sometimes. Hooper is a solid play in the 1 PM slate and will help teams win championships this week.
Logan Thomas ($6,000 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings) Sunday Slate
Thomas has played three tough defenses in a row and produced incredibly well against them. In Week 15, Thomas had a 27% target share of 15 targets for 13 receptions and 101 yards. In Week 16 the Washington Football Team plays the Panthers and their bottom 10 defense against tight ends. Its beginning to look a lot like Christmas if you have Thomas rostered.
Other tight ends to play in Week 16:
The obvious: Travis Kelce and Darren Waller
The not so obvious: TJ Hockenson, Robert Tonyan, and Hayden Hurst
💔 Heart Breakers
Jordan Reed
Reed has touchdowns in two of the last three games. You may think that means he’s playable against the Cardinals defense, but you would be wrong. The Cardinals are a top five defense against tight ends.
Mark Andrews
Over the last two games, Andrews has had a total of 10 receptions, 144 yards, and a touchdown. This week, the Ravens play the Giants and their top 10 defense against tight ends. If you have him you are playing him, but Andrews will need a touchdown to save his day.
Other tight ends that will cost you: Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry
If you are looking for Defenses to stream, take a look at The Stream Option by Kyle Larson.
Thanks for checking out our Money Makers and Heart Breakers column. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter, follow @MikeReedyFF for more great content, and visit back for Mike’s weekly UNtangling the Wire (waiver wire) article.
