It goes without saying, but injuries suck. Although most of what I do for the Undroppables revolves around discussing injuries, I hate when players get hurt. Chances are this year more than ever, injuries have affected your fantasy football team. With a truncated offseason and zero preseason games, everyone knew that a spike in injuries was a possibility.
Inspired by Tommy Mo and his Trade Target Tilt piece from last week, in this column I am going to outline a few players I am either actively trying to acquire or get rid of based on their injury histories. A medical spin on trades, if you will.
Christian McCaffrey: Acquire
Admittedly, this is going to be a difficult trade to pull off. CMC was the consensus 1.01 in fantasy football drafts, and for the most part his fantasy managers still have that price-tag assigned to him. Recent reports indicate a speedy return for McCaffrey is likely. However, McCaffrey is currently on IR and the soonest he could return is Week 6 when the Panthers host Chicago. Additionally, high ankle sprains for RBs hinder production and can sometimes ruin fantasy football seasons.
Truthfully, I think there is a good chance McCaffrey can return after just three weeks on the IR. Since 2010, RBs who suffered a high ankle injury were able to return from the injury in 3.7 games on average. I presume McCaffrey sustained his high ankle sprain late in the 3rd quarter of Week 2 and tried to play through the injury, only to exit in the 4th quarter. He has demonstrated resilience, and because of that there is a chance he returns shortly.
If you are trading for McCaffrey, make sure you manage expectations. From the same data I referred to earlier, RBs who returned from a high ankle sprain averaged 4-11 fewer PPR points per game. Additionally, there is evidence that these players typically get off to slower starts when they return. Those last two points are critical:
- Know what you are getting with McCaffrey. He was operating as the RB3 on a points per game basis pre-injury. With a slight dip in production, CMC might be closer to the RB6-10 range.
- There is also a small window to acquire McCaffrey after he returns, should he get off to a bad start. You could get him from a frustrated fantasy manager who expected peak McCaffrey.
High ankle sprain – kiss of death Christian McCaffrey edition
Yesterday we learned that CMC sustained a high ankle sprain and would be out for the next 4-6 weeks. It was difficult to see how he injured his ankle but after looking over more video I think I have a better idea.
— Adam Hutchison PT, DPT (@TheRealAdam_H) September 22, 2020
Deebo Samuel: Acquire
The window to acquire Deebo Samuel at this point is either closed or very close to closing now that he has returned from IR. There’s a chance that fantasy managers in your league were expecting prime 2019 Deebo the second he was activated. I anticipated a ramp-up period, which was confirmed by the stats from Sunday.
Samuel only played 36% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps. Between Nick Mullens and C.J Beathard, there were 49 dropbacks/pass attempts and Deebo only ran around on 15 of them (~30% route participation). Amongst the WRs, Brandon Aiyuk is operating as the #1 while Kendrick Bourne is still ahead of Deebo, playing 70% of the 49er’s offensive snaps in Week 4. Despite that limited playing time, I think there were some positive takeaways and good reasons why I think you should go out and get Deebo.
When Samuel did play, Kyle Shanahan made it a priority to get him involved. Below are two plays specifically designed for Deebo.
I expect this trend to continue and for the 49ers to get Deebo more heavily involved. In his first game back he was not simply used as a decoy and it was evident that both San Francisco and Deebo are confident in the health of the left foot. As @FantasyFBStoner pointed out to me, Deebo ranked as the WR9 from Weeks 9-17 in PPR leagues last year.
I think you can wait a week to trade for Deebo. There should be a gradual ramp-up period, but once Deebo supplants Bourne it will be wheels up for the talented WR.
Rashaad Penny: Acquire
There is a chance you may not even have to trade for Rashaad Penny. He may be sitting out on your waiver wire at this point since some fantasy teams may have dropped him to make room for other players on their IR slot.
Penny is eligible to return from the PUP in Week 7, right after Seattle’s bye. This would mean that Penny would be 11+ months post ACL repair, the ideal timeline in my opinion for ACL injuries as I discussed this offseason. (Rashaad Penny | Injury Breakdown)
The Seahawks offense looks unstoppable, and although the overall numbers have not drastically changed, the team is letting Russ cook by emphasizing the passing game over running the ball. Because of that, I think now is the time to target Penny. There is an opportunity to thrive as the receiving back in Seattle. Compared to last season, Penny’s averaged depth of target was 2.3 yards, compared to Chris Carson’s -0.6. Additionally, when he did get the ball in his hands, Penny average > 11 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception, while Carson’s average YAC per catch was closer to 7.
When I watched Penny last year, it was clear he was the superior pass catcher, and it seemed like he was about to go on a hot streak. Both Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde have sustained injuries thus far. There is a chance that Penny is immediately fantasy relevant once he returns.
Evan Engram: Relinquish
Evan Engram was a player that I was avoiding in redraft leagues, because there is evidence to suggest that skill players in the NFL with Lisfranc injury struggle the next season. Typically these players have a 21% decrease in production (In reference to Engram, I outline it in more detail here: Evan Engram | Injury Outlook).
On a point per game basis, Engram is currently TE22 with 7.5 PPR points. Although the sample size is small at just 4 games, that is much larger than a 21% decrease in fantasy production compared to his previous career average of 12.2 points per game. Engram is running ~40 routes per game, and with injuries to Sterling Sheppard and Saquon Barkley, we expect more production than what he has gotten thus far. Per playerprofiler.com, the catchable target rate/quality of targets are at a similar mark, but Engram is simply not producing. It might not all be due to the injury, but it’s looking like that at this point Engram is not going to return his investment. It might be worth moving him to a TE-needy team.
Julio Jones: Relinquish
I am writing this piece on Tuesday morning, so it’s possible that when it drops we have more news on Julio Jones, however at this point I would be listening to offers.
Instead of going the safer route like Davante Adams in Monday’s game, Atlanta activated Julio Jones one week removed from a hamstring injury. It would appear that Julio re-aggravated his hamstring strain, as he left the game early. Re-injury rates for hamstring injuries typically are around 22-34%, but that number spikes when a player sustains a second injury. Assuming that the Falcons were not being cautious with Jones and he did re-injure his hamstring, it’s possible that we see an IR stint for the Falcons WR.
Jones is clearly an all-world athlete, but as we age, our tissue quality decreases. Julio is 31 years old and it’s possible this injury derails the rest of his season much like it did to Adam Thielen last year. It’s possible that you can move Jones based on name value alone, and I would do it if I could get a reliable piece in return.
For more injury-based content or advice, follow Adam at @TheRealAdam_H on Twitter. If you’re wondering which players you should offer for Adam’s trade targets, check out our Rest of Season Rankings and see who’s close to (or lower on the board than) these trade targets.
