The greatest NFL dynasty we may have ever seen took a big hit this offseason. The Patriots lost their leader at the helm (at least on the field) when six-time Super Bowl winning QB Tom Brady departed the New England area for Tampa, Florida. Now Head Coach Bill Belichick will be truly tested on putting together a winner without his quarterback who is referred to as the greatest of all time by many. Yet Brady wasn’t the only loss on the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots also lost Phillip Dorsett, James Develin, and some pieces on the offensive line, including their starting center Ted Karras, who left for South Beach with Belichick protege Brian Flores. All of that being said, Robert Kraft didn’t leave Belichick high and dry. The Patriots brought in former MVP Cam Newton on a risk-free deal, as well as drafting two tight ends in the 3rd round of the 2020 draft. With no major additions to the Patriots skill positions and an extremely shortened offseason with a new QB at the helm, I find it hard to believe that the Patriots can actually compete for another world championship in 2020.
Offense: An Overview
With the wide receiver room staying relatively untouched, the Patriots will need major strides from guys like N’Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers, and Mohammed Sanu entering their second year within the system. Hopefully having a healthy Cam Newton (who adds mobility the Patriots haven’t seen at the QB position in 20 years) will open up a whole new world in McDaniels’ offensive playbook. That being said, the Patriots system is known for taking multiple years to perfect, and Newton has only signed a one-year deal, which leads us to ask: will Stidham get playing time? Will the Patriots sign Newton to a longer deal if he stays healthy? How will Patriots players fare in fantasy in the year 2020? My thoughts on the latter below!
Quarterback
Cam Newton
Newton brings a rushing element to the Patriots they haven’t had at QB in the last 20 years. That alone may allow him to be a value in redraft formats, but the shortened offseason may put a delay on claiming the job for Week 1. Also, as our Undroppables in-house doc, Adam Hutchison has pointed out, the shoulder could still be a concern later on in the season barring the number of pass attempts and is something to keep an eye on (Twitter thread below). Overall, Newton could provide high upside with his rushing ability in the red-zone within this new system, but there is a lot of risk baked in as well. For redraft, I think he is a great streaming option once we have seen him integrated into the system. On the dynasty side of things he may be a good cheap buy if Stidham does indeed start the season, but be aware that the risks he holds could see him out of fantasy relevance as well after 2020, so don’t overpay.
I have been doing a lot of reading today because I am interested in my profession and improving my clinical approach, but I can’t help sometimes to read something and relate it to fantasy football. pic.twitter.com/gKxx86tFLD
— Adam Hutchison PT, DPT (@TheRealAdam_H) July 21, 2020
Jarrett Stidham
Jarrett Stidham could very well be the future of this Patriots organization long term, but seeing as they brought in Cam Newton, I wouldn’t be so quick to dub him the next generation quite yet. The 2019 4th round selection from Auburn showed flashes of brilliance during the preseason, but his time was nearly non-existent during the season thanks to Tom Brady. Although Stidham is a solid handcuff in dynasty and superflex leagues, I do not anticipate he will start the lion’s share of games in 2020. Due to the shortened offseason, I do think it’s likely he will be the starter Week 1 as Newton gets more familiar with the system. If you currently have him on your roster, maybe hold to see his production early. From that point you may be able to trade for higher value upon any big moments early in the season or hold for longevity.
Brian Hoyer
Brian Hoyer is nothing more than a cheaper insurance policy for this Patriots team. At age 34, Hoyer has only ever started more than 10 games in 1 of his 11 years playing professionally. Hoyer knows the system having played for the Patriots in 2017 & 2018. I wouldn’t expect any fantasy relevance from the #3 QB on the team.
Running Back
Sony Michel
Sony Michel is one running back that is extremely difficult to predict for fantasy purposes. Michel saw the 9th most carries of all running backs in the league and 10th best red zone opportunities, but it didn’t generate much success on the field. Michel had 6 weeks within the top 24 with two finishes being as an RB1 (Weeks 5 & 7). The positives for Michel end there. Michel was 12th among running backs in drops, likely pushing him further away from any pass game relevancy. Furthermore, Michel scored 7 TDs but 3 of these came from one single game. Most of his contributions were minimal outside of that game. Michel also had a very average 3.6 true yards per carry, which could use improvement. Now add in the fact that Belichick has had a tendency to use a committee approach, and Sony’s late-round ADP becomes no surprise. If your running back position is looking sparse in redraft or startup, then feel free to take a shot and hope for the best. I expect James White to continue to have the most relevance on the field and Damien Harris could eat into some of Michel’s snaps if his efficiency continues to be poor. In dynasty, he is not a player I would go out of my way to trade for as his price isn’t easy to determine and isn’t worth giving much up for.
James White
White continues to be a solid flex option in PPR formats of fantasy football. In 2019 White saw the 6th most targets, 6th most receptions, and 3rd most receiving yards among running backs. This trend will likely continue in 2020 even with the departure of Tom Brady. Brady has been known to check it down to the running back in recent years, giving White heavy value. Cam Newton has been known to do this same thing as well. If Stidham ends up winning the starting quarterback job, he is also likely to use the running back in the pass game as well, being a less developed passer with no starting experience. No matter what, White is still an efficient flex play within McDaniels’ system. In redraft he is a great depth piece and likely the back to own from New England. In dynasty formats I would likely look to trade him to a contender for some draft capital, as he wont help a middling or rebuilding team much at all. That paired with his age make this the time to send him to a contender if possible. If you are still playing in a format where there is no PPR scoring at all, then don’t bother adding White to your roster.
Rex Burkhead
Burkhead is a name in fantasy that should fade into oblivion in the near future, so I wouldn’t use a roster spot on this aging veteran. Burkhead put up 4 games in the top 24 last year with 2 of the 4 coming in Weeks 15 & 16 solely from red-zone work. Burkhead only saw more than 30% of snaps in 4 total games and also missed some time with an injury for the 4th year in a row. All of this to say, Burkhead is not worth the risk and will likely never make it into your lineup or even consideration set, so don’t waste the spot.
Damien Harris
Harris only saw a total of 4 carries during his rookie year, but that could improve during the 2020 season. Due to the current QB battle, Burkhead’s restructured contract, and Sony’s lack of efficiency, I fully expect Harris to get more opportunities on the field. The production he puts forth will likely determine if the looks continue. Harris is the one RB I would take a shot on outside of White in this offense. He is a cheap grab in all formats and is a relatively risk-free lottery ticket if he does make the most of his opportunities. Harris managed to hold off and outproduce Josh Jacobs in all 3 of their years together at Alabama. With another year in the Belichick system, I fully expect this former college stud to see more opportunity. See if you can buy him cheap in dynasty and grab him as one of your last picks in redraft. Low risk for a potential high reward.
Wide Receiver
Julian Edelman
Julian Edelman’s production is likely to fall with Tom Brady leaving town. Therefore, his upside is likely capped, but he could still prove to be a valuable PPR flex play no matter who wins the job at QB. Edelman is a solid slot receiver who is likely still the # 1 WR in New England. In 2019, Edelman was 3rd in targets, 4th in receptions, 5th in red zone receptions and 18th in yards after catch among all wide receivers. This shows me he still has the opportunity, but these numbers were likely due to Brady’s trust as well. I anticipate some regression, but he will remain a great flex play on contending teams and in redraft formats. The main cause for concern here is that Edelman was 6th among all wide receivers in drops for each of the past two seasons. That was with the 13th most “catchable targets” within the league. Those catchable targets are likely to fall no matter who wins the QB job, so I would definitely prepare for some regression with this veteran wide out.
N’Keal Harry
N’Keal Harry may hold the most upside on this entire roster in dynasty formats. Belichick has preached his high hopes for the young prospect, whom Bill made as his first wide receiver selected in Round 1 of the NFL Draft during his entire tenure with the Patriots. Harry started his rookie season hampered by injuries, but saw some success in his limited action toward the end of the year by scoring 2 TDs. His current ADP in dynasty formats as of July is WR43, which is fairly cheap for a 1st round rookie heading into his second season. His best comparable receiver on PlayerProfiler.com based on metrics is Allen Robinson, who also had a slower start as a rookie but broke out in year 2. If you can get him for a fair price I would definitely take the risk, because the Patriots clearly have plans for him as a key building piece of the offense. Furthermore, Harry is known for his ability to do well in contested catch scenarios, which pairs well with his predicted new quarterback Cam Newton, especially in the red zone. 2020 and 2021 will likely be key years for Harry. I like him as a prospect and trust in what Belichick sees. For redraft formats he falls even lower in ADP, so feel free to take a shot late hoping for the second-year breakout.
Mohamed Sanu
The value Sanu brings to the Patriots wide receiver room is much greater than the one he will bring to your fantasy roster. Sanu is a great veteran presence but this offense is not as pass happy as the one he had in Atlanta where he was a flex play at best. I anticipate that Sanu will serve as the #2 or #3 WR of this New England offense, which won’t do a lot for your fantasy team. Sanu has finished well outside of the top 24 in most wide receiver categories each of the past two seasons, and I don’t expect him to get any better for fantasy purposes. I would avoid in both redraft and dynasty as there are much better options with higher upside.
Marqise Lee
The oft-injured Marqise Lee has signed in New England but is likely to still be on the roster bubble. With no preseason to help his case, I wouldn’t invest in this player at all since he would likely be the fifth or sixth wide receiver on the roster in the first place. Avoid in all formats.
Jakobi Meyers
Meyers is an interesting stash in dynasty leagues in the case that Stidham ends up winning the job. Stidham and Jakobi showed great chemistry during the preseason in 2019 which led to Meyers posting 20 receptions for 253 yards and 2 TDs. This preseason showing led to Meyers earning some actual work during the regular season, but Jakobi didn’t have that same trust and chemistry with Brady as he had shown with Stidham. The 2019 undrafted free agent did manage to see the field in 11 games and post 26 receptions. Jakobi isn’t a redraft play by any means, but could be a solid dynasty hold in the case Stidham does win the job due to their chemistry on the field.
Tight End
Matt LaCosse
LaCosse will not be a major player for the New England Patriots. In 2019 he was made the #2 TE rather quickly for the unretired Ben Watson who outproduced LaCosse in fewer games. Both tight ends combined only saw a total of 43 targets all season. I wouldn’t use a pick on LaCosse in any format.
Devin Asiasi
The first of two tight ends New England selected in the 3rd round, Asiasi is nothing more than a dynasty or taxi stash in fantasy football. Of the two prospects, I believe Asiasi shows more natural ability in the pass game and has the upside after seeing his production with UCLA in the 2019 season. UCLA actually wanted Asiasi to return in 2020 with plans to incorporate him more. With no preseason in 2020, the young tight ends’ roles and snap percentages will be something to monitor in 2020 to help determine which holds more value and opportunity as this offense starts to rebuild.
Dalton Keene
The second of two tight ends New England selected in the 3rd round, Keene was selected 10 picks later. He is solely a taxi stash in dynasty leagues. Again, with no preseason in 2020, the young tight ends’ roles and snaps will be something to monitor in 2020 to help determine which rookie holds more value.
Final Thoughts
The 2020 Patriots team is not one I would want to be starting a lot of players from. With the complexity of the playbook, I expect both Newton & Stidham to play and have their ups and downs. Belichick is nearly always unpredictable with his running back committees. Outside of Edelman, the pass catchers are fairly new and I don’t expect major production. This Patriots roster may have some valuable dynasty stashes, but don’t expect much certain redraft value in New England besides some late round fliers. Belichick’s team will remain defensively led, so they may compete in the NFL, but probably not so much in fantasy.
