Joe Douglas, GM of the New York Jets, was very clear with his offseason priorities for the 2020 season. These priorities were protecting his young franchise quarterback and getting him some more pass catching talent. After posting the league’s second worst protection rate (31st overall) and 28th overall supporting cast, I would say these priorities were greatly warranted. Although the names may not jump off the paper, I would say Douglas delivered on his promise. This offseason the Jets used the 11th overall pick on OT Mekhi Becton, whom many scouts claimed may carry the most natural talent and upside of all tackles in the draft. The Jets also signed free agents Greg Van Roten, Connor McGovern, George Fant, Alex Lewis, and Josh Andrews as additions to the offensive line. That is a hefty amount of protection with six new lineman coming to town, but Douglas wasn’t done. The Jets brought in Tampa Bay Buccaneers late-shiner Breshad Perriman to replace speedster Robby Anderson and went on to draft Baylor standout Denzel Mims in the 2nd round. Lastly, on the offensive side of the ball the Jets brought in “Father Time” himself, Frank Gore, and drafted La’Mical Perine in the 4th round. The Jets heavily invested in offensive depth and are hoping to take a step forward in the Tom Brady-less AFC East in 2020.
Offense: An Overview
With all the additions to the offense, there will be fewer excuses for Adam Gase in year two with the team. Hopefully having his starting quarterback healthy for the full year will help the team gel as we saw down the stretch of the season, after the early bumps in the road during 2019. Sam Darnold will be expected to show more consistency with his flashes of superstar potential with all the additions to keep him upright and extend his time per play. We shouldn’t expect too many drastic changes in the offensive approach, but going into year two of the same system, we should expect to see more efficiency and consistency. Otherwise, we may be seeing Darnold’s third head coach by the time 2021 approaches.
Quarterback
Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold is a great dynasty buy and late round streaming QB in redraft formats. Many across the community seem to fear Darnold (and most Jets players) due to the infamous Adam Gase, yet even after seeing ghosts, Darnold’s potential showed well. In fact, from weeks 8-17 Darnold was QB11 on the year, and if you are like most leagues out there and do not play in week 17, then Darnold was QB8 across weeks 8-16. All of that success was playing with the league’s 31st-rated protection rate and 28th-rated supporting cast efficiency. People may bring up INTs as a negative with Darnold, and rightfully so if you solely look at the end total, but digging deeper over half of Darnold’s INTs (7) came in two back-to-back games soon after his return from mono. I would expect most young QBs to make those mistakes shaking off rust coming back off of multiple missed games early. In all honesty, the bout with mono was more damaging to Darnold’s season than Gase was. As mentioned before, they brought in new protection for Darnold; more time to throw the ball should only improve his numbers. Finally, for dynasty players: Darnold is just entering his age 23 season and is younger than Dwayne Haskins, Joe Burrow, Drew Lock, Gardner Minshew, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. The time to buy is now before the true breakout comes and Darnold’s price skyrockets.
Joe Flacco
Heading into his age 35 season, Flacco’s fantasy relevancy is nearing zero. Flacco was brought to the Jets to be more of a mentor for young quarterbacks Sam Darnold and James Morgan more than anything. Prior to the neck injury in Denver, Flacco threw for 1,822 yards, 6 TDs, and 5 interceptions over the course of eight games. It wasn’t looking good and it may have very well been the end of Flacco’s starting career as well. I wouldn’t hold your breath for any contributions here in either redraft or dynasty.
James Morgan
This fourth-round draft pick and former FIU quarterback seemed to draw a lot of teams’ interest, taking a number of virtual draft visits across the league. Over his final two years at FIU, Morgan threw over 5,000 yards, 40 TDs, and 12 interceptions. Although it looked like Morgan could be a sneaky late-round quarterback, his landing spot behind Darnold has waived any hope for relevancy over the course of Morgan’s rookie contract. For dynasty, Morgan is likely nothing more than a deep sleeper/taxi stash barring injury to Darnold.
Running Back
Le’Veon Bell
Le’Veon Bell holds some great value for the later RBs going off the board. Bell was 11th in carries in 2019, 4th in RB snap share, and 7th in opportunity share, showing the work is there. In all honesty, the new O-Line improvements may be equally or even more beneficial to Bell than Darnold. Bell saw some of the most evaded tackles in the league, (17th overall) yet he also had the worst yards per carry (YPC) in his career at a terrible 3.22. A lot of that was on the o-line that let defenders through like swiss cheese. With an improvement in blocking, I expect that YPC to raise once again; even 3.8 YPC would be a major improvement to his rushing totals. Bell’s greatest value still remains in the pass game, where he was a top-10 RB in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He is currently going as the RB26 off the board in ADP, and even with a slight uptick in rushing efficiency paired with his pass game numbers, he should outproduce that position. Bell is a great value in redraft and possibly a decent buy-low option if you are looking to compete in dynasty.
Frank Gore
Frank Gore, aka “Father Time,” will likely snake some valuable touches throughout the season, but it won’t be enough to make him a valuable fantasy play in any format barring injury. Over the last two seasons, Gore has seen 6.8 & 5.5 fantasy points per game, ranking 51st and 60th among RBs. That isn’t likely to get any better, as even barring injury Gore will likely serve as part of a committee due to his age.
Lamical Perine
Perine is another 2020 fourth-round draft pick of the NY Jets. College production won’t wow you when looking at the numbers, as Perine never even cracked 850 rush yards over his 4 years. His senior season involvement in the pass game is likely what helped his draft stock, going from around 11 targets a year in his first three years to 40 targets with 5 receiving TDs in his senior season. That being said, with both Bell and Gore in the backfield, his 2020 relevance is likely slim to none. He could hold some value in dynasty formats, but that is pretty minimal at the moment as well.
Wide Receiver
Jamison Crowder
If you are in any sort of PPR scoring league, I suggest you buy/draft Jamison Crowder. His ADP has him going around the 13th round or later, but as we saw in each game, Crowder serves as a security blanket for Darnold on the field. Crowder led the team in targets in seven (nearly eight) of the 13 games that Darnold played in. Crowder was also top-20 for wide receivers in target rate, receptions, red zone receptions, and yards after catch. All of that for a guy who is going between WR58-WR63 in drafts. In dynasty you may even be able to get him for a 3rd round rookie pick, which is a steal in itself. Crowder serves as a solid flex play in all PPR formats and will likely be peppered once again this season.
Breshad Perriman
Perriman’s end-of-season breakout with Tampa Bay landed him a one year prove-it deal with the Jets. Perriman has had quite the struggle in his career, failing to take off with the Ravens, Browns, and most of his time in Tampa. This will definitely be a make-or-break year for him filling in Robby Anderson’s vacant role. Most of Perriman’s late success in Tampa took place due to the injuries of Godwin & Evans paired with the high-octane passing offense that Bruce Arians runs. Perriman projects more as a boom-bust flex option in any format, with his fantasy output likely relying on big-play touchdowns. I don’t foresee a big season for the former Buccaneer, and I imagine Crowder, Mims, and Herndon are the better options to roster.
Denzel Mims
Taken in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL draft, Mims drew first round grades from some NFL analysts and landed on a team with no true WR1. Posting scores above the 90th percentile in four of the five major workout metrics and a college dominator score in the 85th percentile, Mims is truly an athletic freak unlike any wide receiver Darnold has had on the roster thus far. In fact, one of his player comparisons from his metric scores posted is none other than 2019 fantasy breakout Chris Godwin. With the opportunity alone, Mims could be one of the earlier producers from this 2020 rookie WR class. In dynasty, Mims is a solid piece that may honestly be undervalued within this “stacked” class. He may be my third or fourth favorite wide receiver in the class the more I watch tape and look into him. For redraft purposes, I would likely pass due to the minimal offseason and training camps, but he could be a solid waiver add especially as the season goes on.
Tight End
Chris Herndon
With tremendous flashes of potential in his rookie year, Sam Darnold’s efficiency and success with the tight end, and a lost season due to injury allow Herndon to be a sneaky late-round flier at tight end for 2020. On the dynasty side of things, he is still very young (24) and his lost season allows him to be of fairly cheap cost at the moment. Looking back to his great rookie year, Herndon had a 17% red zone target share and a true catch rate of 92.9%! That was FIRST among all TEs in the NFL. The young tight end also was top 10 in yards per reception, yards per target, and dominator ranking. Taking a look at his numbers in 2018 plus Darnold’s use of the TE in 2019, all signs point to a solid late-round tight end with Herndon if he can hold onto the job. The Jets have come out multiple times this offseason speaking on their plans to incorporate Herndon. They also have mentioned how they will use him to open up the field. If you’re looking to find a potential tight end lottery ticket, Herndon may be one of your best bets.
Ryan Griffin
Griffin had a quietly good season in 2019. Many may have grabbed him as a flier throughout the year with Herndon down, but his efficiency really jumps off the page. Ryan Griffin posted the #1 target separation among all TEs while having the 9th dominator rating, 1st QB rating when targeted, and being 2nd in fantasy points per target among TEs. He also had the top catch rate of all tight ends in 2019. How did the Jets respond to his output? They gave him a three-year, $10.8 million extension, giving him at least two more seasons with the team. All of that said, Griffin continues to hold little value in either format barring injury or scheme change. Not only is the tight end already 30 years old, but the Jets ran the fifth-least amount of 12 personnel in the NFL in 2019 at 12%. With the return of Herndon, Griffin’s snaps and targets look to take a significant hit.
Final Thoughts
With the 2020 offseason placing heavy investment in the New York Jets offense, there will need to be a significant improvement otherwise Gase may get the ax. A healthy Darnold paired with year two in this new offensive system should spell more efficiency from a team that has had a significant amount of coaching and scheme changes over the last three years. If the new additions on the offensive line step up, there could be some sneaky fantasy values on this often-avoided offense.
