The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had one of the largest roster overturns of any franchise this offseason, first by signing one of the greatest of all time, Tom Brady, to a fully guaranteed 2 year $50 million contract with an additional 9 million in incentives. Brady’s relationship had reportedly soured with the Patriots dating back to Belichick’s support of Jimmy Garappolo. This decline was exacerbated by the lack of talent that Brady had for pass catchers last season after the failed experiments of Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, and Mohammad Sanu. Given Gronk’s departure, the season before, the tight end position for New England was abysmal. Patriots’ tight ends averaged a little over two receptions per game collectively, and 20 individual tight ends had more receptions than all of the Patriots tight ends last season (Ben Watson, Matt Lacosse, Ryan Izzo, etc). Next came the trade with New England to bring Rob Gronkowski out of retirement for a fourth-round pick (and the Bucs received a seventh in return). Gronk reportedly claims that he is in great physical condition, and if this is indeed true, Gronk could vault the Bucs into a contending team next season. Finally, in the draft, the Buccaneers traded up one pick from 14 to 13 in order to select Tristan Wirfs, an offensive tackle from Iowa. Wirfs was in the tier of great offensive lineman in this class, and this pick was a no-brainer for them. They followed that up by selecting safety Antoine Winfield Jr. out of Minnesota to shore up their secondary to go with their top run-stopping defense. In the third round, the fantasy community’s prayers were answered as the Bucs selected Ke’Shawn Vaughn from Vanderbilt. They selected Tyler Johnson from Minnesota in the fifth, filling the third-receiver need that they had after the departure of Breshad Perriman to the Jets in free agency. With all of these moves comes great uncertainty, so let’s try to dispel that and understand what this offense will look like next year.
Offense: An Overview
Tom Brady is sure to bring massive change to the Buccaneer’s offensive scheme with Brady’s shorter-range passing game. Brady typically utilizes pass-catching running backs like James White, and this is a role that could be filled by Ke’Shawn Vaughn in a lesser fashion. Brady also utilizes the slot receiver extensively (Welker and Edelman), which is a positive for Godwin. Bruce Arians has typically implemented a vertical passing attack emphasizing deep passes, something that Brady does not specialize in at this point in his career. Last year, he was average in terms of deep ball attempts and adjusted yards per attempt, placing 15th and 20th in the league respectively. The offense will become less boom-or-bust, as Jameis was willing (to a fault) to throw the ball far downfield, as shown by his 113 deep ball attempts last year, which ranked first in the league, and his 30 interceptions (also first in the league by 9 interceptions).
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin
Chris Godwin was a breakout star last season, finishing as the WR 2 in standard, half, and full PPR leagues… in only 14 games played. Godwin is only 24 years old and is one of the top dynasty WRs. With Tom Brady as his quarterback, Godwin’s yards per reception will likely decrease from 15.5 y/r last year, but the overall consistency of the offense should improve and thus remove some of the volatility that came with receivers under Winston. As shown by Brady’s utilization of both Wes Welker and Julian Edelman, the slot receiver is one of the most important positions for Brady, and this bodes well for Godwin. Although there is inherent risk when a new quarterback enters a system, Godwin has a safer floor than many of their other options given Brady’s reliance on the slot. Godwin’s astonishing 2.2% drop rate is something that Brady will surely value. Still treat him as a WR 1 in both redraft and dynasty, with an additional boost in dynasty leagues due to his age.
Mike Evans
Unfortunately, Mike Evans is projected to be negatively impacted by this quarterback change, as Evans is a vertical, deep play threat that was a perfect match for a gunslinger like Winston. Evans’s 17+ yards/reception in each of the last two years is not as well adaptable to Brady’s passing system as other roles. On the other hand, Evans’ talent will keep him from falling too far. This is evidenced by his 2014 WR finish of 13 in PPR formats, which was his rookie season, under Josh McCown for 11 of his 15 games played. He still should be thought of as a solid WR2 with TD upside in redraft, and he receives a slight boost in dynasty given his age (26 years old). Although he might finish above where my projections have him, his volatility given game script, Tom Brady’s preferred game-manager style, and being the WR 2 on his team (for target purposes), will make him less enjoyable to own in fantasy compared to his year-end finish.
Tyler Johnson
Honestly, I am only adding him here since he was drafted today. Johnson is buried in the pecking order of pass catchers (especially considering the tight end talent that the Bucs have) and plays a slot role that is filled most of the time by Chris Godwin. Irrelevant in redraft leagues and only worth a late-round flier at best in dynasty leagues.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski
GRONK IS BACK! Rob Gronkowski was acquired a week or so before the draft for a fourth-round pick and has a strong chance to be their number one tight end this year given the chemistry between him and Tom Brady. Gronk, despite losing weight, claims that he is in great physical shape, which was the reason for his decline in New England a couple of years ago. If OJ Howard is traded or Gronk has positive buzz coming out of the Bucs camp during the offseason, he could be a mid-lower end TE 1. For now though, more of a low-end TE 1 in redraft leagues with some upside.
O.J. Howard
O.J. Howard… One of my biggest misses last season. Howard was one of the most disappointing players in fantasy last year, becoming unusable almost instantly. Howard was underutilized by the coaching staff and began to cede playing time to Cameron Brate. The addition of Gronk has severely capped his upside for the foreseeable future, and the way to success for him seems to be through trade. Such rumors have swirled, however, nothing has been finalized. OJ is an incredibly talented pass catcher, however, he has never had the support of the coaching staff. For now, the only way that he returns to fantasy relevance for season-long leagues is through trade or injury and thus is not worth drafting in redraft leagues. In dynasty, he still is worth rostering due to his talent.
Cameron Brate
Cameron Brate was the better TE last season in Tampa Bay, however, he is undraftable unless there is a trade or injury in front of him. Although Brady has utilized two TE sets in the time of Gronk and Hernandez, more recently he has used one. Brate, like Howard, is a speculative TE watch for me and his success is dependent on injuries to Gronk and/or Howard’s exit.
Running Backs
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
The Buccaneers finally did it. They selected a running back… in the third round. While this draft capital is satisfactory, nevertheless it does not guarantee workhorse status. Vaughn will likely be used in tandem with Ronald Jones, however, as of now, Vaughn seems like the RB to own in that backfield. Vaughn caught 28 balls in his last year of college, showing that he does have the potential to become a solid pass-catching back. Vaughn is a strong rusher that can be used on all three downs, however, his top-end speed and agility are lacking and cap his real-life usability/upside. He went to one of the best landing spots in the draft and should be a first-round rookie pick in Superflex or one QB leagues with strong redraft appeal to be a mid-round pick.
Ronald Jones
It could have been worse… however drafting Vaughn still means that Ronald Jones is likely no more than a low-end flex play for the foreseeable future (if he is used in a complementary role as I believe he will be). Given Vaughn’s draft capital, there is a strong chance that Jones will still be used, however likely as the number two in their backfield. Jones never had full confidence from Bruce Arians, and hasn’t been used in a workhorse role for any extended period of time. This move makes him a handcuff and a sometimes usable piece given plus-matchups. He is worth a late-round flier in redraft leagues and is a low upside piece in dynasty without an injury to Vaughn.
Dare Ogunbowale
Unfortunately, Dare’s role is likely negligible due to Vaughn’s arrival. Dare’s skill set is as a 3rd down back, however, he wasn’t utilized extensively in this role last year. Brady’s signing boosted his outlook slightly at first, as (long-shot) hopes surfaced of Ogunbowale being used as a third-down, James White-lite type of back in this offense. Vaughn will likely fill the pass-catching role (as well as split early-down work) and thus Dare is relegated to irrelevance in redraft leagues and is no more than a deep league flier in dynasty PPR leagues. Offseason reports and early season usage will quickly dictate if he is worth rostering.
Quarterback
Tom Brady
Brady went from having Edelman, Sanu, and Myers to Godwin, Evans, Gronk, OJ (maybe), and Brate. He finally has weapons that are elite, and this will boost him up the QB ranks immensely. He becomes a mid-QB 1 in redraft leagues and has more upside than he has had for quite some time. Brady will be a great asset next year in fantasy.
Jameis Winston
Although Jameis is no longer on the Buccaneers, it is still appropriate to mention him. Jameis has garnered only minimal interest from teams this offseason, as turnovers and off-the-field issues scare potential suitors. Despite Jameis’s fantasy dominance and high yardage/touchdowns last year, it seems as if he will serve as a backup somewhere this season. He is currently irrelevant for redraft leagues, but he is still definitely worth rostering in Superflex leagues as his fantasy appeal is clear if he is given a starting job.
Final Thoughts
The Tom Brady trade had immense implications for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers skill position players. This trade should help make the offense more consistent, but removes some of the top-end upside created by Jameis’s gunslinger style. Rob Gronkowski will be great if his body is able to withstand the beating of another season. In the draft, the Bucs selected a great offensive lineman in Tristan Wirfs and filled their need at running back with Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who could be a poor-mans version of James White in the passing game but be even more effective as a rusher. The Bucs’ offseason moves should help the team immensely, increasing expectations to that of a solid playoff team that could contend if luck is on their side.
