Over the last few months, I have taken a deep dive into the trends that can be seen across RB1s over the last two decades. My goal is to help dynasty GMs evaluate potential value points for expectations of running backs you may be drafting or trading for; especially when trying to hit big or consider longevity on rebuilding/contending teams.
Parameters
Before we jump in, I want to define a few things ahead of time of what this article is and is not. This article is an analysis of common trends seen within fantasy football’s top scoring running backs over the course of a 20-year time span. This article will help define commonalities of RBs to help you draft the next RB1 that follows some of these trends. This article will also help you identify who is a one-hit wonder you can trade at prime value. What this article is not, is a predictive model defining who will be an RB1 in 2020. For predictive models and analytics of that nature, I would refer you to our in-house genius @BlakeAHampton. He definitely has you covered.
Now let’s jump in!
First off, in this write up I will be referring to RB1s very frequently. Since 12-team leagues seem to be the standard team size, we are defining an RB1 as a top-12 finish at the running back position in each given year. Secondly, all rankings and positional finishes in this article are using the Half-PPR format in hopes of finding the most consistency across users of all formats. Taking a look at 20 years of top-12 running back finishes gives us a total of 240 RB1s. When factoring in players that show up multiple times on this list, it gives us a final total of 101 total RBs that finished as RB1s from 2000-2019. Of these 101 RB1s, 17 are not included in every aspect of my study due to them being drafted prior to 2000, therefore not allowing me to collect the full data of their early years. These 17 were drafted between 1992-1999. So from this point forward when I reference “All RB1s” it will be inclusive of all 101 RB1s, and when I refer to the “full data group” it will be in reference to 84 RB1s (not including the aforementioned 17).
With all clarifications now established, let’s get into the nitty gritty.
The Average RB1
Many fantasy GMs are quick to write off a running back due to age, but is there any validity to these seemingly rash decisions? The answer is slightly. Of the 240 RB1 finishes in the 20 year time span, only 16 of the finishes were made by someone 30 or older (a very poor 6% hit rate). The oldest age overall was 32, done by 5 different backs (Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Fred Jackson, Thomas Jones, and Ricky Williams). Of those 5 running backs, the highest age-32 rank was an RB4 finish by DeAngelo Williams. The top running back finish of any age 30+ RB was Adrian Peterson at age 30, finishing as the RB2 in 2015 (outside of him the highest rank was RB4 by multiple RBs). In sum, there can be production at 30 and above, but it is a rarity.
Below is a summary of the “average” numbers seen across the RB1s over the last 20 years.
Age: 25.33 years old
Rush Attempts: 273
Receptions: 48
Total Touchdowns: 11.85 (both rushing & receiving combined)
College Dominator Score: 33.62
Round Breakdown: Significance of Draft Capital
Draft capital does tend to show some significant importance towards RB1s over the years. I am by no means saying round 1 picks are the only way to go, or that busts do not happen, but a large trend of the majority of RB1s is having a draft capital of round 3 or earlier. As seen below, day 1 & day 2 running backs have accounted for nearly 70% of RB1s since the year 2000.
The breakdown of RB1s falls in line with draft capital as well, with the largest number of RB1s coming from round 1 and that number steadily decreasing round by round (as seen in the table below).
Undrafted free agents (UDFA) are the wildcard in all this, with the same hit rate as the 4th round, granted the pool is likely a lot larger as well. In fact, UDFA have had almost an equal hit rate as the running backs drafted in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds combined. Yet the 5th round-UDFA only accounts for 20% of RB1s in the top 12 over the past 20 years.
As we’ve seen draft capital does seem to actually matter, but the more imperative questions are the following: Where are these running backs landing within the top 12 compared to their draft capital? Are the lower round guys only making it into the back end of the top 12, or is it pretty diverse overall?
Taking a look at the chart below, you will see that the spread is fairly even throughout the first 4 rounds. The 5th round has some sprinkled success (top-2 finishes from Michael Turner & Aaron Jones) but mostly generated lower-end finishes. Then the 6th and 7th rounds have mainly sputtered success although Peyton Hills had one giant outlier season. Undrafted is where there has been an even spread again but the higher success can at least partially be attributed to a larger pool of candidates.
In sum, when buying or considering running backs in trades or even in your rookie drafts, don’t over-analyze it, but at least consider the capital. If you’re trying to take a swing on someone that could one day fill the RB1 mold, this is one trend to keep in mind.
Multi-Season RB1s: Generational Talent or Time to Trade?
How long do running backs put up elite seasons? How many seasons are there before we see a drop off? These were some of the main questions that got me into this study. We’ve seen so many people write on the peak ages of running back production, but there are always those elite outliers that shatter those peaks. So I was searching for another outlook of potential slowdown that the elite backs may show that pairs well with the age info in consideration.
The most elite RB1s during this time frame are Adrian Peterson and LaDanian Tomlinson, both posting a total of 8 RB1 seasons. Although I do not have the exact data prior to 2000, I believe the only other backs to put up 8+ seasons are Marshall Faulk, Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, and Barry Sanders; that’s it! Actually getting 4+ seasons as an RB1 is an accomplishment in itself. Only 21 of the 101 total running backs finished as an RB1 4+ times (non-consecutively.)
Below is a breakdown of RB1s number of finishes within our 20 year time span:
In our full data group, 52% of the RB1s (44 of 84) accomplished the feat at least twice. Adding in our 17 running backs with partial data, we saw that percentage increase to around 57% (57 of 101). Yet, a large percent of these multi-season RB1s are still those higher-capital running backs. Taking a deeper look at draft capital in combination with multi-season RB1s brought along some useful insights in our trend analysis. Draft capital seemed to only further corroborate that running backs drafted after day 2 have a very slim chance at top RB1 opportunity, especially on a repeated occurrence. Represented below is the entirety of running backs with multiple RB1 finishes that were drafted in the 4th round or later within our time frame.
RB1s w/ Multiple Finishes Drafted Round 4 or Later
4th: Rudi Johnson( 3); Devonta Freeman (2); Lamar Miller (2); Stephen Davis (2)
5th: Michael Turner (3); Jordan Howard (2)
6th: N/A
7th: N/A
Undrafted: Arian Foster (4); Priest Holmes (3)
That’s right, only 8 of 101 RB1s were drafted round 4 or later and finished in the top 12 more than once. Of the 57 multi-season RB1s, only 14% have a draft capital of later than day 2. Draft capital truly does matter not only toward having the opportunity to produce RB1-type numbers, but it also helps us to weigh the outlier status of a running back. Perhaps we should trade away those late round breakouts for more talent. For example, if you didn’t ship out Phillip Lindsay for prime value after his rookie year, you likely missed out on his best opportunity of return value. This is easy to say looking back, but having this data now will allow you to move on from these types quicker in the future. The time to ship Chris Carson is likely now (even with the injury knocking his value a bit.) Another guy that falls into this category at the moment is Austin Ekeler, whom I will take a deeper look at shortly.
Time to Achieve Breakout (Top 12) Season
In this section, we take a look at how long does it typically take for RB1s to reach the top 12, i.e. a breakout season? As well, are there hit rates that indicate greater longevity? When looking at RB1s that have shown up in the top 12 multiple years, normally these running backs will land in the top 12 within their first 3 years in the NFL. This next section will be taking a closer look at pictures of the data I have collected to help sum up these findings.
(Data below refers to “Full Data RBs”. Data shows as player, # of times in top 12, and which season of their career they landed in the top 12 for the first time)
For RBs who have been an RB1 two or three times, (either thus far or total) we see that most have broken through in their first three years. There are a couple that broke through in years four & five (Rudi Johnson & Michael Turner) but they seem to be more of an anomaly, if anything.
Yet when you step it up another level to that elite four or more seasons, you really only see players that are breaking out in their first two years. Even the current younger guys that look on par to break into this elite group (Saquon, CMC, Kamara, Fournette) tend to follow this trend as well. Even Brian Westbrook seems to be an outlier at 3 years until breakout (see below.)
On the flip side, it’s no surprise that many of the running backs that took 4 or more seasons to hit were usually one-hit wonders.
My real interest in this range lies with Derrick Henry, who is entering his age 26 season and just broke out in year 4. It seems with his touches and opportunity he is built to join the anomaly group, but the age threshold paired with breakout year, plus not having a longer contract, only on franchise tender, worries me. It seems to point towards a possibly shorter stint as an RB1; my guess may be one more season of truly elite RB1 status, which feels wrong even typing.
Breaking out in year three seems to be the real coin flip. Of the non-active players with a year three breakout, 5 of 12 have turned in multiple RB1 seasons.
The active players are where it also gets interesting, with guys like Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, and Lamar Miller. This is where the other factors we have already discussed, paired with opportunity and investment, may help you come to your own conclusion on whether or not to continue buying in on these running backs and their top-tier potential.
My takes on these backs are as follows:
Dalvin Cook: Hold; He has at least a few more RB1 seasons in him. The opportunity, talent, and capital all point toward more top-tier success.
Nick Chubb: Hold; Similar to Dalvin, the talent, opportunity, & capital are there. Stefanski should only help.
Aaron Jones: Hold for now; Best trade opportunity was before the draft. He still has the lead back opportunity in GB, and you can likely get higher value mid-season after a big game.
Chris Carson: Trade him for value while you still can; The injury risk knocks him, but you can still get good value.
Austin Ekeler: Trade; I think his hype is high at the moment. His low capital, later breakout, and pass catching focus is all working against him. Seems more like Danny Woodhead than CMC to me. You can probably pull a package with a younger guy (2020 rookie, Jacobs, Sanders.)
Conclusion
Data doesn’t lie and is solely objective; analyzing the trends presented to us over the years is one tool we can try to implement in our strategic efforts to get ahead of the curve. There will always be outliers and busts, but arming yourself with the foundations and historical context that is in front of us allows us to plan and execute our teams as fantasy managers. The swings that miss will feel foolish, but the ones that hit will feel oh so sweet.
