Jax Falcone, aka @DynoGameTheory, breaks down each team in his NFC schedule preview, giving you the best Over/Under bets to make on team win totals for 2020.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7
Atlanta Falcons: 8-8
Carolina Panthers: 6-10
The New Orleans Saints with Drew Brees at Quarterback are perennially a winner. I don’t see any reason why 2020 won’t be more of the same. They return their version of the triplets (Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara), and add Emanuel Sanders to bolster their weapons. They also drafted a surefire tight end prospect in Adam Trautman to add depth and insurance to a group led by Jared Cook (33 years old). The Saints should be a great team this year, no doubt. Their Vegas win total is 10, so smash the Over, right!? Not so fast… check out this finishing stretch for them in Weeks 9 through 17: at Buccaneers, vs 49ers, vs Falcons, at Broncos, at Falcons, at Eagles, vs Chiefs, vs Vikings, at Panthers. Woof!! I think the Saints a good team, but I would be cautious with their 10 win over/under. It looks like a smash on paper, but there will be attrition this season, and we need to be aware. If I’m betting, I am taking the over, but it may not be as easy as it looks.
The Bet: Over/Under 10 – Stay Away/OVER
Has there been a more intriguing team this offseason than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?! They won 7 games last season with an offense that turned the ball over 41 times and gave up 7 defensive scores. Those numbers are sure to regress, as Tom Brady has averaged 8 INTs per season over his last 8 seasons in the league. Brady has had 14 pick 6’s in 20 years; Jameis had 7 in 2019. This will be a different team for sure. The defense was stout last year, and it should improve for 2020 with additions (and key subtractions) in the secondary. They have copious weapons and solid coaching. Everything has the arrow pointing up. But what does that mean for a win total? Vegas has them at 9.5, and while I project them at 9 wins here, I still wouldn’t want to be holding an ‘under-bet card’ betting against the GOAT. A lot could go wrong and keep them at 9 or less, but if everything goes right, this could be a 12-win team. For that reason, I am staying away from this bet, as it’s too tricky to handicap.
The Bet: Over/Under 9.5 – Stay Away
The Atlanta Falcons led the NFL in pass attempts by a wide margin, as they had 684 attempts in 2019. The Falcons under-achieved in 2019 by only posting 7 wins. They did finish strong however, posting a 6-2 record in their final 8 games, including road wins in New Orleans and San Francisco. While I think they will be good in 2020, I still think they’ll have a tough time getting over .500. Their first two games are vs Seahawks and at Cowboys, but their final 7 games is where I am especially concerned. After their bye, the Falcons finish: at Saints, Raiders, Saints, at Chargers, Bucs, at Chiefs, at Bucs. I like this Falcons team and I think they can get hot and make a run, and if I had to, I would bet the Over, but I am more inclined to stay away here.
The Bet: Over/Under 7.5 – Stay Away/OVER
No team has my attention more than this Panthers team. Their ownership with David Tepper and the hires of Matt Rhule and Joe Brady are very, very intriguing. I think they have the right idea in terms of team-building and philosophy. We’ll see how resolute they can be during trying times. I think they will have trouble winning games again this season. The defense is not good, at best, and it may be awful. The offense is led by Mr. Efficiency Teddy Bridgewater, but he is far from prolific, and they will need to score points in order to remain competitive in a division with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan. Outside of their divisional games, they play the AFC West, the NFC North, the Cardinals, and the Washington Football Team. Not too bad. The Under doesn’t seem like a viable bet, and the Over will be a sweat, but if pushed, that’s the way I’d go.
The Bet: Over/Under 5.5 – Stay Away/OVER
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7
Green Bay Packers: 9-7
Detroit Lions: 6-10
Chicago Bears: 5-11
The Vikings have been knocking on the door seemingly every season since Mike Zimmer has taken over as head coach. Side note, can you believe Zimmer has been the Vikings Head Coach since 2014!!?? Gary Kubiak comes in as the Offensive Coordinator, and his teams are always in the top half of the league in rush attempts. This team will be run-first again in 2020. They also addressed some key defensive needs this offseason by drafting cornerback Jeff Gladney, and scooped up tackle Ezra Cleveland just after the Rams inexplicably passed on him for a 24 year old slot receiver. Needless to say, I really like this team and think they are going to win this division. Why only 9 wins then? Check out how their season starts from Week 1 through Week 6, before their much-needed Week 7 bye: Packers, at Colts, Titans, at Texans, at Seahawks, Falcons. A 2-4 or 3-3 start is quite realistic. It doesn’t get too much easier for them in the second half either. Their Win Total Line is right at 9 games, which is where I had them. Definition of a stay away. I think I’d rather bet them to win the division than to bet their win total. At least you can get some better odds there.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – Stay Away
You could argue that the Green Bay Packers were the ‘luckiest’ team in the league last year. They had an expected win total of 9.7 and ended up 13-3. They were 9-1 in one-score games last year. A lot of that will regress. The Packers also went out and completely whiffed the draft. They added backup skill position players with all of their high-leverage picks. Yikes. It will be Aaron Rodgers’ greatness that will carry them in 2020, and I’m not sure how much passion he has for that considering the Jordan Love draft pick. He admitted that he was expecting one of the wide receivers with that pick,and immediately poured himself a big glass of tequila when the Pack drafted Love. Not great.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – Stay Away
In 2019, the Lions lost their star QB after he was off to an incredible start – He was on a pace for 5,000 yards and 40 TD passes, as well as a .500 record. After he went down, the Lions scored more than 20 points only once. They had scored more than 20 in 7 of 8 games with Stafford. Vegas has the Lions win total at 6.5, and that’s an excellent number, as I have them at 6 or 7 wins. Their schedule seems pretty fair. They have some tough games, but they have some very winnable games mixed in throughout the year. The should hover around .500 all year. I’d love to bet the over, but the coaching doesn’t inspire any confidence, so I am inclined to stay away.
The Bet: Over/Under 6.5 – Stay Away
My win total projection here was the furthest from the Vegas line (8.5 wins), and I was surprised to learn that you can get juice on the Under (+130). I am slamming the Under. The division is challenging and they play the AFC South and the NFC South in addition to the Giants and Rams. Every Bears fan laments the coaching, and while I don’t think the front office or the coaching staff are above average, the 2019 Bears actually over-achieved their expected win total of 7.4 and finished with 8. I would be shocked if this Bears team got to 9 wins. Give me the UNDER and it’s the bet I feel best about on the entire board.
The Bet: Over/Under 8.5 – UNDER
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6
New York Giants: 5-11
Washington Football Team: 5-11
The Dallas Cowboys and their fans will no longer have The Clapper to blame for their disappointing finishes. In 2019, the Cowboys had 10.7 expected wins and ended up with only 8 wins, one of the worst ratios in the league. The Cowboys a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and add a luxury pick with CeeDee Lamb on the offensive side of the ball. They are going to move the ball and score points, and they even have a tremendous backup quarterback in Andy Dalton, so their win total bet is insulated against a QB injury. The defense is good and shouldn’t be a liability for them. The schedule includes the AFC North and the NFC West (two tough divisions), but they also get 2 each vs the Giants and the Washington Football Team. The Cowboys two extra games are the Falcons and the Vikings. The schedule isn’t easy, but I really like them to be able to get to 10 wins.
The Bet: Over/Under 9.5 – OVER/Stay Away
The Philadelphia Eagles were my pick to go to the Super Bowl in 2019, and the wheels really fell off. Their defense was above average in terms of personnel, but they had a glaring weakness at cornerback. The added Darius Slay this offseason to bolster a unit that should be a strength in 2020. The offense should be effective again in 2020, however they still have some major questions at the wide receiver position. They drafted Jalen Reagor, a guy I absolutely love, but with Alshon Jeffery on the PUP (and washed), DeSean Jackson being 33 years old, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside being a huge disappointment, a lot is riding on Reagor to contribute right away. I think he can, but there is a question there. The Eagles have the same tough schedule as the Cowboys with their two extra games being the Saints and the Packers. It will be tough for the Eagles to get to 10 wins, but they have the talent to do so.
The Bet: Over/Under 9.5 – Stay Away/OVER
The New York Giants and Daniel Jones made us all look like fools for questioning their reach pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. For me however, the jury is still out. Jones was a turnover machine, and he sometimes looked lost in the pocket. On the bright side, his arm looked lively and he was able to deliver passes down the field, which is what it takes to win at the highest level in this league. With Saquon in the backfield, opponents will always have to pay attention to the running game and passes to the running back. That creates space elsewhere. The Giants appear to have a pretty brutal schedule, as they start with Steelers, at Bears, 49ers, at Rams, at Cowboys, Washington Football Team, at Eagles, Bucs, at Washington Football Team, Eagles, all before their bye week. Other than the games against Washington, they are likely to be underdogs in every game. If you’re a Giants fan, 4-6 would be a huge victory in those 10 games. after the bye, they get a winnable game against the Bengals (on the road though) and then finish at Seahawks, Cards, Browns, at Ravens, Cowboys. My goodness. With an Over/Under of 6.5, they need to get to 7 wins in order to take your money on an Under bet. Sign me up.
The Bet: Over/Under 6.5 – UNDER
The Washington Dysfunctions, or I’m sorry… the Washington Football Team. Are you fucking kidding me!!?? Could there be a more dysfunctional team heading into the start of a football season during the auspice of a pandemic?? The only thing they have going for them is the steadying hand of Ron Rivera. That’s not enough to change my opinion of this team. This mess of a team has to start the season with the Eagles and then go on the road to face the Cardinals and Browns. Follow that up with the Ravens and Rams. Divisional games at Giants, and then they host the Cowboys. Honestly, if they are 2-5 I’ll be impressed. I’m thinking more like 1-6 in those first 7.After their bye week, if you have the Under, you can sweat these games, as they have the Giants, Lions, and Bengals (2 of 3 at home). They better fare well in that stretch, because this is really their finishing schedule – at Cowboys, at Steelers, at 49ers, Seahawks, Panthers, at Eagles. I have them at 5 wins, and that may be a bit aggressive. Take the under and don’t look back. This team has to get to 6 wins to hurt you.
The Bet: Over/Under 5.5 – UNDER
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: 11-5
Seattle Seahawks: 10-6
Arizona Cardinals: 8-8
Los Angeles Rams: 7-9
The 49ers are coming off a trip to the Super Bowl and missed being SB Champs by the thinnest of margins. The existence of Super-Human Mahomes is the only thing that could stop them. Now they return for 2020 in great shape – they replace DeForest Buckner with rookie Javon Kinlaw who is an absolute beast. They add wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, and it turns out to be the perfect pick in hindsight, with the subsequent injury to Deebo Samuel. Their schedule is tough, as they play in the best division in the NFL top to bottom. That means 6 of their games are against the Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals. They get the AFC East, which isn’t too bad, as the Pats and Bills aren’t elite and the Dolphins and Jets should be sure wins. Their NFC draw, the NFC East, also has a couple of cupcakes (Giants and Washington), but that also means tough games against the Eagles and Cowboys. Their two extra games are tough, as they get the Saints and Packers. Overall, it’s a tough schedule, and it will be difficult for them to get to 11 wins to pay the Over. At 10.5, there is no way I could bet the Under though. So this is a stay away or an Over bet from my perspective.
The Bet: Over/Under 10.5 – OVER/Stay Away
The Seattle Seahawks are All-In!! They moved two first round picks and more in order to land superstar safety Jamal Adams. Adams is the prototype of the player that’s a key component to the Pete Carroll defensive system. The Seahawks were a bottom defense last season in almost every single category, except turnovers, which are not very sticky from year to year. So, there is actually some regression expected. Enter Jamal Adams with the hopes of stabilizing the D and giving this team a shot in the postseason. The Seahawks schedule is pretty difficult, as they open up at Falcons, Patriots, Cowboys. Tough way to start, considering they still have all 6 division games remaining. But in typical Seahawk fashion, they will finish strong. They get an amazing stretch run, starting in Week 13: Giants, Jets, at Washington Football Team, Rams. Week 17 may be for the division as they go to San Francisco to finish it off. In a pandemic season, bet on the infrastructure, and take Seahawks Over 9 wins. Only 8 wins or less hurts you. In Russell we Trust.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – OVER
The Arizona Cardinals are everyone’s darlings this year, and rightfully so. Kyler Murray had impressive stats in 2019 and puts himself on a short list in terms of what he accomplished in his rookie season. If you put on the film, it’s even more impressive, as he is able to make throws that very few humans ever could make. He is Good. The defense is still an issue, as they had a hard time stopping the run and the pass. They were second worst in the NFL with 6.0 yards per play surrendered. In order to get to .500, they will need to be better on that side of the ball. They made key investments on that side of the ball, drafting Mr. Everything Isiah Simmons to play LB/S/DE and wreak havoc all over the field. They also drafted two solid DL prospects in the 4th round. If they can slow down opposing offenses, they should be much more competitive in 2020. It’s very reasonable to expect Kyler to take another step forward, especially with the addition of Stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Vegas has the Cards win total at 7.5, and I have been going back and forth on the Cards at 7 or 8 wins in 2020, so for me, they are a Stay Away. But they won’t be a stay away for me on Sunday afternoons, as I will be watching them closely.
The Bet: Over/Under 7.5 – Stay Away
The Rams roster and cap situation has been mismanaged severely over the last few seasons and it may come to roost this year. They chose to draft 24 year-old slot receiver Van Jefferson over a solid OT prospect Ezra Cleveland (who was drafted with the very next pick). Ignoring the offensive line is a major concern, because of the ripple effect it has had and will continue to have. Jared Goff has some of the most drastic ‘pressure/no pressure’ splits in the entire NFL. He’s not a very good ‘off-script’ QB at all. At least they drafted a stud running back who is used to having no one block for him, but still… Their schedule is tough, as the division is competitive, and they open Weeks 1-3 with Cowboys, at Eagles, at Bills. The Rams will be lucky if they can win any of those games. I have them at 7 wins this year, and Vegas has them at 9. I’m not afraid of this team winning 10 games to beat me, so I am slamming the UNDER!!! 9 is a push and 10 sounds like a pipe dream.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – UNDER
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