Our very own Marc Mathyk, aka @Masterjune70, brings his take on the Pittsburgh Steelers offseason breakdown to the table, with a little more brevity than past breakdowns. Let us know @TheUndroppables on Twitter if you enjoy the alternate format!
Offense: An Overview
The Pittsburgh Steelers were an 8-8 team in 2019 despite having the worst offense in the entire NFL. According to Football Outsiders, they were ranked 32nd in offensive efficiency, having a -25.3% Offensive DVOA. Much of this was due to losing Ben Roethlisberger in the second game of the season and relying on not one, but two rookies to step in and steer the offensive ship. Needless to say, third round pick Mason Rudolph and undrafted free agent Devlin “Duck” Hodges were not adequate replacements. Despite their quarterback play, the Steelers almost made the playoffs because of their defense, which had the third best Defensive DVOA.
But now it’s 2020, and Big Ben is back! Many have the Steelers making the playoffs, and some even have them winning the AFC North (despite having to best the Baltimore Ravens, who were unstoppable last year.) Team aspirations aside, many expect this year’s Steelers to be an offensive juggernaut, which ultimately translates into fantasy football gold.
With Big Ben back we can now expect them to play like they did in 2018. They were the sixth most efficient offense according to DVOA. Roethlisberger made 675 attempts and threw for 5,129 yards. To put that in perspective, 675 attempts is the fourth most of all time and 5,129 passing yards is the seventh most of all time. Incredible. Pittsburgh is going to tear it up again!
Not so fast. It’s not going to happen. And here’s why.
Quarterback & Defense
In Roethlisberger’s 15 year career, he has had many prolific seasons to go along with some pedestrian ones. This isn’t because he’s been Mr. Inconsistent. It’s because of game script. Whenever a team has a top-rated defense, the offense simply does not need to work as hard or as often. It’s that simple.
Roethlisberger has averaged 37. 75 attempts per game when Pittsburgh’s defense has been outside the top ten. That translates to 604 attempts in 16 games. This occurred in 2012 to 2016, and then again in 2018 when he had those record-breaking stats. However, Roethlisberger only averaged 26.45 attempts per game when Pittsburgh had a top three defense. That translates to about 423 attempts in 16 games. This is a difference of 181 attempts. A HUGE difference.
Two years ago, Pittsburgh’s defense had the 13th best DVOA. In 2019 they were third. If anything, their defense is poised to be even better and more dominant in 2020. This is great news for Steelers’ fans, but not so good for those who roster Steelers players in fantasy.
Even last year, Pittsburgh’s bad quarterbacks only made 510 attempts. That’s an average of 30 attempts per game over 17 games. In the first two games of the season, Pittsburgh’s defense was abysmal. They gave up 61 combined points (30.5 per game average) to New England and Seattle. Consequently, Big Ben and Mason Rudolph combined for 81 pass attempts (40.5 average) during those contests. From Weeks 3-17, the Steelers defense was prolific. They gave up an average of 16.1 points even with playing against powerhouses like San Francisco, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Baltimore (twice).
On offense, Rudolph and Hodges averaged 28.6 attempts per game. They completed less than 63% of their passes and averaged less than 6.5 Yards Per Attempt. Excluding Roethlisberger’s brief 2019, he has a career completion rate well over 64% and more importantly, has a career average of 7.8 Yards Per Attempt. A team with a better defense does not need to throw the ball as often. A team with a better, more efficient quarterback also does not need to throw as often.
Wide Receiver & Tight End
During the five seasons in which Pittsburgh had a top three defense, Roethlisberger never had more than 469 attempts. But for argument’s sake, let’s give Roethlisberger the same 510 attempts in 2020. What will the distribution pie look like? JuJu Smith-Schuster is ready to regain his 2018 form. Diontae Johnson is looking to progress from his impressive rookie debut. James Washington is often mentioned as a breakout candidate. They went and invested a second round pick (49th overall) in Chase Claypool. In fact, apart from Santonio Holmes (a first-round pick in 2006), Big Ben has never had a wide receiver as highly drafted as Claypool.
Eric Ebron was another important addition to the Pittsburgh tight end room this off-season. He’ll join Vance MacDonald, who many have soured on, but had 72 targets with Roethlisberger only two seasons ago. A healthy James Conner demands targets. Jaylen Samuels is a natural pass-catching back. Plus, there’s Benny Snell and newly-acquired rookie Anthony McFarland. McFarland was drafted in the fourth round and gives the Steelers a smaller, yet more explosive option at running back.
So, 510 attempts. Where do they all go? Let’s make a prediction model and break it down:
- JuJu Smith-Schuster – 120 targets (had 166 two years ago)
- Diontae Johnson – 92 targets (last year’s total)
- James Washington/Chase Claypool – 80 targets (Washington’s total last season)
- Eric Ebron – 70 targets
- Vance McDonald – 30 targets
- A healthy James Conner – 70 targets
- Other RBs – 35 targets
- Others – 13 targets
If the above distribution is the case, JuJu will improve upon his disastrous 2019 season, but will not come close to his 2018 breakout. Johnson will have a solid yet unspectacular sophomore campaign, showing zero growth. Washington will not breakout. Claypool will most likely be viewed similarly to Parris Campbell and Andy Isabella after their 2019 rookie seasons. Eric Ebron will be a low-end TE1 at best. McDonald won’t be on redraft rosters and will be dropped in dynasty. Conner would benefit the most out of any Steeler if he can remain healthy. If he doesn’t, then it will be a messy running back-by-committee.
That’s with a generous 510 attempts. Even if you disagree with the distribution, 510 is a number that evaporates very quickly. Any way you slice it, that’s your Pittsburgh Steelers offensive breakout for 2020. Unless they can replicate the offensive efficiency of the 2019 Baltimore Ravens, look for Big Ben and company to be average at best, even if the talent in Pittsburgh would say otherwise.
In reality, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a great team on both sides of the ball. Barring injuries to significant players, they should win at least 10 games, make the playoffs, and perhaps win their division. However, regarding fantasy, fade everyone on their offense including Roethlisberger. Not because any of them are bad, but because their defense is that good.
