A pass catcher’s first home impacts their near-term development/production.
Players have tipped strengths & weaknesses since the dawn of time (except Zay Flowers- I’m told he’s already Antonio Brown). Weighing those variables help determine the kind of value you’re dealing with.
The degree to which this yin-yang is stretched births polarizing names throughout the draft process, often touted as “boom or bust” prospects.
Nobody has an issue swinging for the fences in later rounds, but if early assets are at stake? Be certain that any Achilles heel(s) inevitably garner front-page news.
This year’s award goes to WR Quentin Johnston.
Standing out gets all the attention
Johnston’s traits & athleticism aren’t just noticeable on the field, they’re exacerbated amongst this “petite” draft class.
Okay this is where I’m at after watching the receivers (ranked L-R) pic.twitter.com/OHbCgRb4uf
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) February 25, 2023
Initially considered to be this year’s clear WR1, Johnston earned legit top-ten hype while TCU awaited their national title fate against Georgia.
QJ caught one of three targets on the *big* stage. Following that performance, he was a fresh face many began their WR evaluations with.
As those from Twitter-world know, there’s been plenty of negative discourse ever since.
Not to say his main criticisms aren’t valid, even my opinion has regressed. But if the fading has yet to reach equilibrium (real life or fantasy), Johnston is nearing value territory.
Organic YAC
Quentin Johnston’s combination of size, speed, and explosiveness not only make him a rarity within this year’s class, but also amongst previous names as well.
Even when we “isolate” out schemed production, he’s amongst a favorable group of wideouts that continue to headline NFL Sundays.
Accounting for screens (an inflating concept), the three closest guys in the 2023 group mainly produced from the slot, another YAC booster over the middle/shorter depths.
College YAC/Reception after removing screens, 2023 WR class pic.twitter.com/tBowy4NRNz
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) March 22, 2023
Here’s what happened when Johnston actually moved around:
Quentin Johnston saw >25% tgts thru the Slot in 2022.
He led all Power Five WRs in the following (min 25 tgts):
YPRR – 6.14
Y/Rec – 20.2
YAC/Rec – 13.2 pic.twitter.com/eQKnsJV3Hz— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) February 21, 2023
The benefit of QJ dropping towards the later parts of the first round are a “better” crop of teams (who are in a competitive window) that would, logically, put forth the required effort to maximize his strengths.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is my WR1- don’t get it twisted. But it’s silly to label Quentin Johnston as the next Reagor or Kevin White yet already comp Zay Flowers to Deebo or AB.
You’ll find plenty of guys in NFL position rooms covering the essentials. There aren’t many with Quentin Johnston’s size, traits & production getting discarded like he has throughout the draft cycle.
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