Processing The Process: Final Senior Bowl Thoughts

Phase One of The Industrial Draft Complex (aka “The Process”) is complete. The Senior Bowl wrapped up a week ago; we have been exposed to all of the “stock up, stock down,” “winners and losers,” and “risers and fallers” pieces we can handle. I imagine I’m in the 99th percentile of consumers of such content. I’ve scoured the internet for said articles, followed local beat writers, listened to all the podcasts from any attendee I could find, and tweeted my way through it all. 

To this point, I’ve tried to remain player-agnostic and take in the information. We’ve got a few months until rookie drafts, so there’s no need to pick a hill to die on. However, I’m looking into the real estate on some of those hills and checking out the views.

If you read my first article, Looking Back to Look Ahead | Senior Bowl WRs & RBs, you know:

• “Most of these players won’t be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, nor your rookie draft.” – Maybe one QB or WR sneaks in, but I doubt it. Early declares still reign supreme, and for fantasy purposes, these are guys we’re getting in the 2nd round of rookie drafts and beyond.
• “These players have something to prove,” – Some answered. Some left us with more questions. We’ll go through those.
• To “Make a note of the players who leave early.” – There is a signal there. Their agent likely told them there was nothing more to gain by staying. 

With that in mind, it’s time for me to opine. 

I’ve bunched every skill position player into one of four categories. There’s a right price for each player depending on format, league size, roster size, etc, and keep in mind that we want to remain Bayesian throughout the rest of “The Process.” Thus, depending on their cost, my mind can be changed, but here’s where I am after two weeks of absorption (first the lists, then more context).

I’m Interested

Regardless of their combine, draft capital, or landing spot, I will likely draft these players at cost.

1. Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan
2. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
3. Marshawn Lloyd, RB, USC
4. Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5. Theo Johnson, TE, Penn State
6. Brendan Rice, WR, USC

Show Me The Combine

These players look like they have traits we like, but I need to know more. The testing data points will help us move players into Group 1, Group 3, or possibly Group 4.

1. Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida
2. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina 
3. Luke McCaffrey, WR, Rice
4. Daijun Edwards, RB, Georgia
5. Michael Wiley, RB, Arizona
6. Emani Bailey, RB, TCU
7. Isaiah Davis, RB, San Diego State
8. Ben Sinnot, TE, Kansas State

Show Me the Situation 

“Situation” means draft capital and landing spot. I may be willing to take the plunge if I see a scenario where they can flourish.

1. Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy
2. Devontez “Tez” Walker WR, UNC
3. Jha’Quan Jackson, WR, Tulane
4. Ryan Flournoy, WR, Southeast Missouri State
5. Jamari Thrash, WR, Louisville
6. Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky
7. Michael Penix, QB, Washington
8. Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina
9. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
10. Michael Pratt, QB, Tulane
11. Rasheen Ali, RB, Marshall
12. Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State
13. Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, WR, Georgia

I’m Out 

These players don’t profile like dynasty assets in which I would invest meaningful draft capital. Let someone else burn draft capital and roster space on them. 

1. Ray Davis, RB, Kentuky
2. Cody Schrader, RB, Missouri
3. Dylan Laube, RB, University of New Hampshire
4. Ainias Smith, WR, Texas A&M
5. Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona
6. Jaheim Bell, TE, Florida State
7. Jared Wiley, TE, Texas Christian University
8. Brevyn Spann-Ford, TE, Minnesota
9. AJ Barner, TE, Michigan
10. Joe Milton III, QB, Tennessee 
11. Carter Bradley, QB, University of South Alabama
12. Sam Hartman, QB, Notre Dame

Diving Deeper

Note: Zebra Technologies Inc. (2024 Reese’s Senior Bowl Performance Tracker) provided the GPS data on the players.

I’m Interested:

He left after Day 2 (“make note of players who leave early!”) because he won the Senior Bowl. I had to create a tweet-count-cutoff in my hype tracker because of him. There are lots of comparisons to Tank Dell a la 2023. Lots of comparisons to Tyler Lockett. He easily gets open, makes contested catches, and is fast and smooth. Perhaps his low yardage totals were due to the offense he was in, not his ability. Of the Senior Bowl WRs in 2023, he had the 2nd highest dominator rating. Get higher on Roman Wilson!

Notable quotes:

“he showed off his ability to run away from coverage and make contested catches with strong hands throughout practice on Tuesday. Wilson’s talent for creating mismatches and opening throwing windows for his quarterback reminds me of what I saw from Tank Dell.” – Lance Zierlein (Link here)

“the former Wolverines star worked himself open repeatedly. Wilson showed nuance in his game, using leverage and quick footwork to create space before making catches.” – Matt Verderame (Link here)

“From this perspective, Michigan wide receiver Roman Wilson was the best player on the field for either session.” – Evan Lazar (Link here)

“Wilson has legitimate 4.3 speed, and he glides effortlessly through zones, throttling up and down to take advantage of leverage mismatches.” – Ian Cummings (Link here) 

I declared Roman Wilson the winner, but Ladd will likely get drafted ahead of him. Of the Senior Bowl WRs, he led in yards per route run and catch percentage in 2023. From what I can tell – he had a big Day 1, a quieter Day 2, and a big Day 3; he was getting open in the game (I was watching like a hawk) but wasn’t getting targeted much. He allegedly put on a show during punt return drills, too. Watching his routes on 1-on-1 drills (which he absolutely crushed), I couldn’t help but think he’s one of the twitchiest WRs I’ve ever seen. There were multiple observers referring to him as “having a plan as a route runner.” I’m interested in seeing how fast he is at the combine, but “pro-ready” was thrown around quite a bit.

Notable Quotes:

“In 1-on-1 drills, no defender was close to stopping him… He has a plan on every route.” – Marcus Mosher (Link here) 

“The Bulldogs star is a thoughtful route-runner who attacks defenses with a well-defined route plan.” – Lance Zierlien (Link here) 

“McConkey put on an absolute show during one-on-ones with his highly advanced route-running and quickness. However, it’s worth noting he didn’t have the same success in team drills.” – Evan Lazar (Link here) 

“McConkey is not only a turbocharged athlete with elite stop-and-start, but he knows how to weaponize that speed and athleticism with efficient footwork, spatial awareness, deceptive tactics, and micro-movements — and he can make high-difficulty catches as well.” – Ian Cummings (Link here) 

Stay calm; Stay calm; Stay calm. (whispers: I think we have a sleeper). This guy did the Roman Wilson thing but for RBs. He opted out of playing the game (Day 2 draft capital is likely secured). For a senior, he’s not too old, he has the requisite size, he showed good receiving ability, burst, wiggle, and power. His 40-time will be the next biggest hint (and might catapult his value), but for the love of 2nd round steals, don’t tell anyone about Marshawn Lloyd! Forget I said anything.  

It seemed like he was high on many lists coming in, so I was paying close attention. With 3.21 yards per route run (2nd in 2023 among this group) and a 17.1 aDOT (also 2nd), it’s easy to see why. On the 2/8/24 episode of The Undrafted (Listen here), Jax’s guest, Thor Nystrom, pointed out that people didn’t realize he was winning at all three field levels. He isn’t just a deep threat, as his aDOT seems to indicate (he did clock the 2nd fastest MPH among WRs for good measure, though). Other attendees noted that on Day 2, he was getting targeted often in team drills (he certainly filled up my Day 2 Tweet bank). He looks silky, fast, and has good releases, and his college numbers back it up. This is a strong prospect we can get at a good price. Let’s not overthink it.  

There are two very clear tier breaks in TE before we get anywhere near Theo’s tier. Athleticism is important for TE prospects, so the combine will matter, but Theo looks like a full-grown NFL TE already and seems to have put himself near the top of that 3rd tier. Don’t go crazy; he should be affordable on draft day, but of the TE prospect not named Bowers or Sanders, he seems like a good bet. 

Notable Quotes:

“Johnson was routinely using his easy acceleration, speed, and bend to carve through zones and separate at the intermediate level, and he also used his hands to finish at the catch point consistently.” – Ian Cummings (Link here) 

It’s probably because he’s Jerry’s son, but Brenden was getting a lot of hype, and it seems earned. He opted out of the game (check), but from practice sessions, there are many videos of him fighting through defensive holding and PI and making the catch anyway (we like that). There were multiple “Mike Evans” comps. He doesn’t look like his old man, but at 6’2, 212, with the highest yards per reception of this bunch (17.6 in 2023), a healthy aDOT, one of the fastest MPH achieved at the Senior Bowl, and the literal G.O.A.T. as his father, I’m not going to be fading Brendan as long as the price is right (and he doesn’t seem expensive at all at the moment).

Notable Quotes:

“Big, physical kid who showed the ability to make sharp cuts despite his 6’2″, 212-pound frame.” Matt Verderame (Link here)

“His 6-foot-2, 217-pound frame came in handy during 1-on-1 drills, as he had to fight through consistent contact to make catches. Despite all that, the wideout had a good day, even fighting through some jersey-tugging to come down with a catch in the end zone.” – Zach Selby (Link here)

“His ability to finish through contact and make plays on the ball with strong hands impressed me. Rice is not a pure separator like dad but a physical outside receiver who can win down the field.” – Evan Lazar (Link here)

Show Me The Combine:  

Ricky did leave early (after Day 2, big check). He sounds like a route-running savant who still made some contested catches, and there was definitely a Tweet storm (after Roman, Ricky was the most Tweeted-about player on Day 1, by my count). His statistical profile doesn’t jump off the page to me, but he left early for a reason. Let’s see his 40. If he’s fast and open, he’ll be targeted at the next level.

Notable Quotes: 

“Pearsall was the best route runner on the field for either team Tuesday, consistently shaking corners with a variety of juke moves on multiple routes.” – Matt Verderame (Link here)

“Pearsall displayed the ability to defeat press coverage, contested catch ability, and his natural route-running prowess at practice on Tuesday.” – Nick Falato (Link here)

“Ricky Pearsall has been every bit of a technician to start practice today. Releases, footwork, stems & breaks, all very fluid & purposeful with little to no wasted movement or ineffectiveness.” – @Pro_Ant (Link here) 

“WR Ricky Pearsall looked outstanding in the 1-on-1’s. Can wake up out of the bed and run routes.” – Jordan Reid (Link here) 

Physically, he was sold to us as DK Metcalf, but he measured closer to AJ Brown. That still works! Nearly unanimously, there were reports about a bad Day 1, compounded by the disparity in his reported size. Then, nearly unanimously, attendees said he bounced back strong on Day 2. He caught everything thrown his way and dominated the short and intermediate games. He had a cameo on Day 3 before a minor injury ended his session. I’m worried about the late breakout age (Year 5), and I want to see his 40-time, but among this group in 2023, he was top 3 in yards per route run (3.15), top 3 in Dominator Rating (.35) and the far and away #1 in adjusted yards per team play (3.2). I definitely want to see his 40-time, but I’m enticed. 

The pedigree conversation seems unavoidable this year. We already talked about Jerry Rice’s son. This draft will also feature the sons of Marvin Harrison (you might have heard about him), Frank Gore, and, of course, Ed McCaffrey (whose other son just won Offensive Player of the Year). This is not the basis of our analysis, but it’s not nothing! Luke was a QB. When he transferred to Rice, he switched to WR and seems to have picked up the position in record time (probably got some tips from Ed). He had one of the highlight grabs of the game last week (one-handed, left-handed), broke the 20 MPH threshold, and had the highest Dominator Rating of any WR at the Senior Bowl in 2023. Did I mention he’s new at this? I’m tempering expectations here. Let’s see how he performs at the combine, but I trust you won’t forget his name. 

We must get him on our Bijan teams just for naming purposes, right? If that’s not enough to convince you, he had a sweet spin move that got him into the 2nd level on Day 1 that everyone Tweeted about. Look, this isn’t a great rookie RB class. We’re looking for guys with good speed scores who can also catch. Daijun caught enough passes at Georgia last year and showed enough as a receiver last week that we think he can do the latter at the next level. He’s elusive, has burst (showed the 2nd best Max Acceleration among RBs at the Senior Bowl), and looks like he packs a punch. He’s also fairly young for a senior. Let’s see what he shows us in Indianapolis.  

I hate to reduce it to this, but in a lackluster RB class, let’s stick with the basics. He’s young enough. He can catch. We need that speed score. 

See Michael Wiley, but they also played well and dominated touches in the game.  

See Michael Wiley.

Show Me The Situation:

There are some great NFL comps for guys who are roughly his size (Ray Rice and MJD come to mind), especially when they can catch, and it appears Vidal can (he had three 20+ catch seasons). He looked better than some of the RBs I just listed in the “Show Me The Combine” section, but at 23, the ageist in me is pushing him down the board. I’ll want to see the combine and the depth chart in front of him for dynasty purposes. 

As the aDOT leader of this group in 2023, I had high hopes for Tez. My notes from the game: “First play – flea flicker to Tez. Loses (probably P.I.). On the third drive, Tez loses on a contested catch down the left sideline. 1:08 left in the 2nd QT – Tez loses another contested catch in the endzone! Second half – Tez beats his man deep, ball underthrown. No catch.” You’ll notice two themes: 1) my note-taking worsened, and 2) the plays were not made.

Here’s the thing: that was a theme of the week. Tez’s athleticism is not questioned, as evidenced by his 21.18 MPH (fastest WR recorded this year). However, he consistently lost contested catch situations in practice and in the game. That’s significant because, of this group, in 2023, he had the highest contested catch rate (24.4%) and the 2nd highest contested target percentage (25.8%). For a guy who’s this athletic, that tells us that he’s probably not a very good route runner yet. There are many plausible excuses, but the thing I don’t like about excuses is that they’re usually the steps we resort to before conceding that a player may not be that good. He’s likely to test well at the combine, so I’m intrigued. But I’m also terrified.

Compared to other WRs at the Senior Bowl, nothing about his statistical profile stands out to me. I saw nothing overwhelmingly positive or negative about Jha’Quan from the coverage. I don’t have a strong take here, so the NFL combine, and his situation will be big before we land on a valuation. 

Part of the reason the Senior Bowl exists is for guys like Flournoy. A kid from Southeast Missouri State got a chance to prove he belonged. Not a lot of hype coming in, but the reviews were good. He surprised some folks. Good size, seemingly good speed, and good hands. Showed well in 1-on-1s. Smells like a potential late-round sleeper. 

Another player that people seemed to love coming in. Among the highest Tweet bank WRs, yet very little written commentary. His 5.5 aDOT in 2023 is concerning. He looks like he has the size and speed to be used in various ways, but if he’s not getting targeted deep at Western Kentucky, I will need more information before I take the plunge. 

Among this group’s leaders in targets per route run in 2023 (0.27), Thrash definitely had his supporters coming in. I need to see more. Given the success of last year’s 3rd-round wide receivers, I won’t write him off until we see how he performs in Indy and where he gets drafted. 

Notable Quotes:

“Want a sleeper wide receiver who has looked great Tuesday? Louisville’s Jamari Thrash. The Georgia State transfer had immediate success in the Cardinals’ offense, catching 63 passes for 858 yards and six touchdowns in 2023. On Tuesday, he had multiple deep catches down the field. He’s quick, a versatile route runner and explosive off the line. I saw good play strength from him at practice, and he was able to consistently play through contact. Thrash was seen as a mid-Day 3 prospect coming into Mobile, but his arrow is pointing up.” – Field Yates (Link here) 

I saw several videos of Wilson making nice grabs, and he has vocal supporters and many skeptics. You don’t see many 6’6 WRs in the NFL. I was tempted to put him in the next bucket of players because I don’t like betting on outliers. However, I decided to keep him here because we would have a much more interesting prospect if he converted to TE. I’m sure he will be asked about his willingness to switch positions regularly during his interviews at the combine. If he does make the switch, I will also be interested. 

Rosemy-Jacksaint beat press coverage on a play-action pass to score a long TD in the game itself. He didn’t seem to be wowing anyone with his athleticism, but reports agreed he was running nice routes and making catches throughout the week. I don’t think he distinguished himself, but he looks like a pro.    

Penix opted out of the game. I’m reluctant to make positive declarations about him or any other QB who participated in the Senior Bowl because, as much as they help us evaluate the pass catchers, the Senior Bowl is not a good setup for the pass throwers. They’re throwing to unfamiliar targets, so Day 1 of practice is typically poor for all of them. They are incentivized to throw short completions rather than let it rip. I understand why, and for that reason, I’m uncomfortable making many proclamations on which of these guys will be good based on 3 days of practice. Let’s stick with the draft capital and landing spot. 

Bo Nix played briefly in the game. For the rest, see Michael Penix. 

If there was a “winner” of the QB group, it was Rattler. He had a rough Day 1 (like many of his counterparts), but by the end of the week, the general sense was that he would likely get a shot as a pro. Rattler also took home the MVP of the game and, in my estimation, helped himself more than the other QB prospects.

See Bo Nix.

Rasheen Ali made some waves on Day 1. After a turbulent college career which started out strong, he took a year off for personal reasons. Returning to the field, he did not recapture his old form. So this was a big week for him, and he unfortunately tore his biceps. He would be firmly in the “Show Me The Combine” camp, but due to the injury, he will miss it, making him a black box prospect until we get to training camp. 

I’m Out:

This one is tough. Based on what I’ve read and seen, Davis was the 2nd best back in mobile. He made one of the highlight catches of the week. He’s almost everything we like: size/speed combo, hands, decisive, but he’s already 24. The shelf-life on running backs is already short, when they come into the league halfway through their prime that’s a no go for me. Interested in re-draft. Not in Dynasty. 

See Ray Davis. 

See Cody Schrader. 

At his size (5’8, 165), we needed to see some wow plays and elite separation. We did not see that; he got hurt on Day 3. This feels like an easy fade. Smaller guys can succeed in today’s NFL but need a superpower. The low 6.7-yard aDOT from 2023 doesn’t help. I don’t see much appeal.

He doesn’t stand out in any statistical categories among the Senior Bowl WRs in the 2023 season. Clocked the lowest MPH. I literally didn’t find a highlight Tweet from the week. He’s an older prospect (not as important at this position, but it doesn’t help). I’ll evaluate further on all these guys, but so far, I’m not interested. 

It’s a strange height/weight combo. I actually heard some good things, but I don’t like to bet on outliers unless they have a super-human trait. 

I didn’t hear or see much, good or bad, about these TEs. I would rather use my draft capital on RBs at the stage in the rookie drafts these players would go. I’m going to place my chips elsewhere.

See Jared Wiley.

See Jared Wiley.

I certainly didn’t hear or see anything that caught my attention. 

Biggest arm. Poorest touch. Bad decisions. Easy avoid.

His play, in the game itself, was borderline disastrous. His hair was magnificent all week, though. 

Housekeeping

I was not in Mobile. I, like you, am a dynasty junkie. I’m providing my thought process based on everything I can know from afar. I want to thank many attendees I follow who provided context to help me form these opinions. They also all produce consistently great content:

Ray Garvin (@RayGQue) from Destination Devy

Derek Brown  @DBro_FFB , Thor Nystrom @thorku , and Eric Froton @CFFroton of  Fantasy Pros

Cody Carpentier @CodyCarpentier and Alex Dunlap  @AlexDunlapNFL  from Rosterwatch 

Marcus Mosher @Marcus_Mosher  from PFF, who has an awesome YouTube channel with great clips from the week (link here) 

Jason Allwine  @JFootballwine  from Player Profiler

Travis May @FF_TravisM from A to Z Sports

Real Friends & Football  @rff_footbal for the constant stream of clips.

And a special thanks to our own Wiz  @DaWiz_FFB, who helped me tremendously. 

They are all worth a follow for all things rookie and dynasty.

You can follow me @Dynasty_JoeFF as we continue to process the process of this 2024 class. Happy Superbowl!

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