Processing The Process Part II: NFL Combine Results

I deliberately waited a few days to write this piece to allow time for my recency bias to fade. The Combine makes you forget everything you thought you knew about a player and draws your attention to details that don’t necessarily translate to NFL (and fantasy) performance. 

Last week, I wrote Profiles to Fade at The NFL Combine to set up our conversation today. As encouraged as I am about the most athletic WR class of all time (and our top two prospects didn’t test), I noted last week that the Combine is just a threshold test, and we’d learn more about players who are unlikely to be Dynasty assets than those who are. 

I provided rules for each position group, and today, we will discuss those rules and which players didn’t make the cut as good Dynasty bets. 

This is not to say you can’t draft any of these players, but you should temper your expectations. I’m drafting these guys in the 4th round or later (in both single-QB and Superflex).

If you’d like to know why, I suggest you read the above article. Let’s dive in!

Running Backs:

Rule #1: If a running back is over 200 pounds, their speed score must exceed 90. 

Rule #2: If a running back is under 200 pounds, their speed score must exceed 100. 

Rule #3: Do not draft in Dynasty if a running back is 24 or older. 

Here’s the list of RBs that did not meet these minimum thresholds:

We have five guys within 1 point of our minimum Speed Score cutoff, six above our age threshold (thanks, Covid), and a couple with multiple glaring red flags.

1. Emani Bailey – In Processing The Process Part I, I put him in the “Show Me The Combine” section. An 89-speed score at a hair over 200 pounds doesn’t cut it. 
2. Ray Davis – Everything about Ray Davis, including his incredible story, looks good… except his age. I’ll take flyers in Redraft, Best Ball, and later rounds in Dynasty drafts.
3. Audric Estime – I had high hopes for the hurdle king. His 127 Burst score still gives me hope. That 4.71 is brutal, though. Let someone else take him in Dynasty.
4. Isaac Guerrendo – Sometimes, a prospect comes along and makes you want to rewrite the rulebook. 

In the year of our Lord, 2024, that prospect is Isaac Guerrendo. He ran a 4.33 at 221 pounds – a Speed Score of 125.7! His Burst Score came in at 135! Those are ELITE numbers. Sadly, he’s 24. With athleticism to burn, he should be at the top of the discard pile. Again, I’m interested in Redraft and Best Ball, but this is Dynasty, so we’ll put him at the top of round 4 and hope he falls. He can’t appreciate enough to warrant an earlier selection.

5. George Holani –  Another age casualty. The measurables look fine.

6. Jawhar Jordan – At 25, he was already in trouble, but I doubt he’ll be drafted at 193 pounds and an 89-speed score. 

7. Bucky Irving – Holy cow, I did not expect this one. I knew he was on the smaller side, but I did not expect him to run a 4.55. His sub-90 speed score didn’t even meet our threshold for 200+ pound backs, let alone a back that’s 192. If it runs like a Duck and weighs like a Duck… do not draft until the 4th or later. I’m so sorry.

8. Cody Schrader – An older prospect who doesn’t meet our Speed Score threshold. 

9. Tyrone Tracy Jr. – This one is interesting. He’s a wide receiver turned running back – a la Antonio Gibson. His 130 Burst score, to go along with his 103-speed score, is intriguing, but alas, he’s almost the same age as Gibson.

Other RB notes: 

Braelon Allen – He’s not listed above, but I’m flagging him nonetheless. He showed up at 235 pounds (definitely less than his playing weight at Wisconsin) and didn’t run. It begs the question: did he shed the weight and know that his speed still didn’t improve enough? On top of that, his Burst Score was 112. That was the bottom 3 for those who tested. Going into the weekend, he was the RB1 on many lists. I’ve been skeptical because, despite his freshman breakout, we didn’t see much improvement (or excitement) on tape during the last two seasons. He’ll need to obliterate his pro-day to get into my top-5. Fade until further notice. I’m sorry about Bucky. I’m not sorry about Braelon. 

Wide Receivers:

Rule #4: Research the burner wide receivers!

Rule #5: If a receiver runs a 4.6 or slower, they must be at least 195 pounds. 

Rule #6: If a receiver weighs less than 180 pounds, they must run better than a 4.5 (or run a 4.54 because they’re carrying a Heisman).

I already alluded to this being the most athletic WR group ever. None of the WRs that tested failed to meet our thresholds above. A few quick notes:

OFFICIAL: 4.21

XAVIER WORTHY HOLDS THE NEW 40-YARD DASH RECORD pic.twitter.com/IrXf3WyemB

— NFL (@NFL) March 2, 2024

1. Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell, Devontez Walker, Jacob Cowing, Ladd McConkey, and Roman Wilson – You no doubt heard about Xavier Worthy’s record-breaking 40. Watching live, believe me, it was different. All these guys helped their draft stocks with those 40s because, as we established in “Profiles to Fade,” the NFL still overdrafts speed at the WR position. Nobody was expecting this many sub-4.4 guys, though. As such, sometime between now and the NFL draft, I’ll be doing a deep dive into each of these guys to help you determine which ones are John Ross and which are Chris Olave. 
2. Anthony Gould, Taj Washington, and Xavier Weaver weighed in at 174, 174, and 169, respectively. They did not run at the Combine. Watch for their pro-day results, and take those with a grain of salt. 
3. Malachi Corley – He showed up, weighed in, and didn’t participate. For a guy whose pitch is athleticism and “the next Deebo,” I’m even more skeptical than I was coming in.
4. Rome Odunze and Xavier Worthy “got that dawg” – Rome, the consensus WR3 (in the NFL and Dynasty), showed up, showed out, and on top of it all, relentlessly tried and re-tried to improve his 3 Cone Drill. Xavier ran a 4.25 in his first 40, which was already the fastest time. You could hear his peers telling him to remove his shoes after the first attempt, implying there was no reason to run again. He did it anyway and walked away a legend. These two data points are not “measurables” per se, but they are alpha traits I like quite a bit. Dissatisfaction with “good enough” is good enough to make me more interested than I was.

Quarterbacks:

Rule #7: If a quarterback is under 6 feet tall, he better be fast.

No QBs were disqualified, as none were under 6 feet tall.

JJ McCarthy, notably, weighed in at 219. Michael Penix and Bo Nix threw well. Joe Milton showed off his bazooka. We’ll let draft capital and landing spot dictate how we approach these QBs in rookie drafts. 

Tight Ends:

Rule #8: Don’t draft Tight Ends who are under 6’3″

Rule #9: Don’t draft Tight Ends for those under 230 pounds. Two hundred forty-five pounds or more is preferred. 

Rule #10: TEs must have a Burst Score of 110 or above or a Speed Score of 100 or above (with a strong preference for both). 

1. Jaheim Bell and Jack Westover – Both measured in at 6’2. There are a lot of high hopes for Bell, and he looks like a good athlete, but we’re not drafting him before the 4th round. Slower Chig Okonkwo doesn’t interest me.  
2. Devin Culp – He weighed 231 pounds, barely meeting our weight threshold, but had a healthy 115 Speed Score. He is not disqualified, but I doubt you’ll take him early.
3. Brock Bowers – I was worried about his height, but he hit the 6’3 mark. I was also concerned about his weight, but he weighed in at 243 (it sounds like he got the memo). He chose not to run after the seemingly conspicuous bulk-up, but with his statistical profile and the requisite height and weight, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. 

Other TE Notes:

My favorite Senior Bowl prospect, Theo Johnson, came in at 6’6, 259 pounds, with a Speed Score of 129 and a Burst Score of 124! Ladies and gentlemen, this is the most athletic TE ever (adjusting for size). His production profile is lacking, but we care more about TE athleticism than any other skill position. I think he’ll take a year or two to develop, but… You may fire when ready. 

Some Housekeeping:

From the Processing the Process Part I, I listed 7 Senior Bowl players whose Combines I wanted to see. Let’s revisit each briefly:

1. Ricky Pearsall – Ricky ran a very nice 4.41 and boasted a 42-inch vertical jump and 129 broad jump (99.9 Speed Score and 135.9 Burst Score). He also had the best 3-Cone of WRs at the Combine. Our eyes did not deceive us; he’s an NFL athlete who is also a great route runner. I suspect I’ll have him ranked higher than most.
2. Xavier Legette – As mentioned, Xavier will be part of my deeper dive into the blazers. However, his 4.39 40 and 40-inch vertical will not hurt. Despite his very late breakout, I remain intrigued.
3. Luke McCaffrey – His 4.46 bested his brother. It’s a different position, of course (which Luke has only been playing for a year), but his pedigree and bona fides as an athlete leave him on the interested list. 
4. Daijun Edwards – Daijun only did the broad jump. I went from hopeful to skeptical. Like Braelon, he better crush his pro-day.
5. Michael Wiley – At 210 with a 4.51 40 (101.5 Speed Score), I’m not fading.
6. Emani Bailey – As discussed, he’s a pass. 
7. Isaiah Davis – At 218 with a 4.57 (99.96 Speed Score), he’s firmly in our consideration set above the RBs who didn’t meet our thresholds.

You can bet I’ll be tracking the pro days of the players we have incomplete info on and doing deeper dives into the prospects. Follow me @Dynasty_JoeFF, and check back here for more intel on the speedster WRs.

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