Not every player puts their best foot forward at the NFL Combine. Not every player gets invited to the Combine. This is why Pro-Days exist.
The issue with Pro-Days is that they are not controlled environments. Reporting, timing, and structure of activities vary wildly. Some players showcase their skills on turf; some are on grass. It is not an apples-to-apples comparison of prospects.
Nevertheless, they serve as a data point. These data points are better for us fantasy gamers than black-box prospects. The numbers should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism, particularly 40 times. As a rule of thumb, I follow Player Profiler’s lead and add .05 seconds to 40 times to account for human error and inflated numbers. It is not perfect, but it seems an appropriately sized grain of salt.
With all that being said, let’s do a quick rundown of the Pro-Day results we care most about for your rookie draft purposes.
Running Backs
The Good
There are two HUGE risers, and you must adjust them accordingly. Coming out of the Combine, there were five RBs in the top tier (Jonathon Brooks, Trey Benson, Blake Corum, Marshawn Lloyd, and Jalen Wright). The list has expanded to seven following the Pro-Days of Audric Estime and Will Shipley.
Audric Estime
Audric posted a horrendous 4.71 second 40 at the Combine. His size gave him an 89 Speed Score (below the 90 minimum threshold we discussed in Profiles to Fade and Processing the Process Part II). At his Pro-Day, he clocked in at 4.58. A gigantic improvement for the hurdle king, bumping his Speed Score to 100! Even if you bake in the .05-second margin for error, he’s still well over the minimum threshold of 90 we needed to see. Considering his impressive 127 Burst Score and healthy production profile, he is back on the menu for third-round or above consideration in your rookie drafts.
Will Shipley
Much to my chagrin, Will Shipley did not run at the Combine. Much to my delight, he smoked the 40 at his Pro-Day, clocking a 4.39! That’s good for a 110 Speed Score. Even if we bake in that .05, he’s at an enticing 106. With his passing game acumen and the fact that he’s now flying under the radar, Shipley will most likely be my most drafted running back of the 2024 class. Load up in the late 2nd and beyond.
The Bad
Frank Gore Jr.
All Junior did at the Combine was the bench, just 12 reps. At his Pro-Day, he did everything we care about (40, Vert, Broad). He improved his bench to a respectable 18 reps. He also weighed 3 pounds lighter (from 201 at the Combine to 198). This is relevant because he ran a 4.58. It is a respectable number on its own, but at that weight, it puts him below the minimum Speed Score threshold of 90 (and for a guy that size, we really want to see north of 100). His Burst Score reached 104, which is nothing to write home about. I want to root for this guy, and if he’s got half the determination his old man had, I think we will see him play on Sundays. But let’s be clear: this is an undersized sub-athlete for this position. It would be best if you took 5th round fliers on him at best.
The Ugly
Braelon Allen
Braelon lost 10 pounds for the Combine and elected not to run. He had an unimpressive Burst Score of 113. He then also elected not to run at his Pro-Day. On Twitter, he said, “No, I am 100%, but the time frame to properly train for the 40 and shuttles was too small of a window for me to perform the way I would have wanted to due to my ankle injury. Sorry to all the 40-yard dash warriors, but we’ll let the tape talk.”
That’s me. I’m the 40-yard dash warrior. I read that as “the 40 can only hurt my draft stock, so it’s better I don’t run it.” Indeed, we can cut some slack for those recovering from high-ankle sprains as they sap explosiveness. But after his freshman year, the tape didn’t impress me, and breakout age doesn’t matter much for RBs anyway. I would not consider him before the seven guys listed above and have Kimani Vidal firmly ahead of him. The situation could change that, but he screams un-explosive, 2-down grinder to me. No thanks.
Bucky Irving
I thought Bucky would try to amend his poor 40-time showing at the Combine. He did not. As discussed, we don’t prioritize 192-pound backs with sub-90 Speed Scores.
Rasheen Ali (injured at the Senior Bowl), Daijun Edwards, Jase McClellan, and Miyan Williams did not run at the Combine or their Pro Days. We leave it to draft capital and situation to determine if they’re 5th-round fliers.
Wide Receivers
The Good
Malik Nabers (ever heard of him?)
Unsurprisingly, Malik dominated and validated everything we’ve seen on film. He ran a 4.35 (a 4.40 with our margin of error), which is fast enough. He also matched Ricky Pearsall (the NFL Combine athletic champ) in Burst Score at 135.9. A 42-inch Vert, 129 in Broad, newsflash—Malik Nabers is quite explosive. He’s WR1 or WR2 in just about every draft. No questions.
The “Meh”
Malachi Corley
The YAC Monster ran a 4.46 (call is 4.51) 40-time. At his weight and with his moves, that’s not overly impressive, but it will suffice. He has the requisite athleticism. He’s a very situation-dependent receiver. His landing spot will dictate our interest level more than your typical WR. He’ll produce with manufactured touches and on special teams early. Time will tell if he becomes a downfield threat.
Ainas Smith
The Aggie ran a 4.48 (4.53) at his Pro-Day and firmly met the requisite athletic thresholds for his size. Good to see him run. He’s smack dab in the middle of a big cluster of JAGs for me.
The Ugly (quick hits)
Tayvion Robinson ran a 4.87. I can think of no successful NFL comps.
Tahj Washington ran a 4.52 but is 174 pounds. WRs that size need a superpower at the next level, and he doesn’t appear to have one.
Xavier Weaver, Jordan Whittington, and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint did not run. There are too many intriguing WRs with athletic bona fides and production profiles to chase these guys.
Tight Ends
Both AJ Barner and Trey Knox hit our minimum size and Burst Score requirements, though their Speed Scores are lacking. Feel free to take late fliers.
Quarterbacks
From an athleticism standpoint, the only thing of note is that Michael Penix Jr. was clocked somewhere in the 4.5s. Sorry to be imprecise, but there are reports everywhere (because Pro-Day times aren’t reliable). That said, that’s pretty darn fast for a guy we labeled a statue. He seems to be gaining steam as the draft approaches. Your 1.09 pick in Super-Flex leagues may be more valuable than you think. Don’t give those away until after the NFL Draft.
Parting Thoughts
We have nearly a month until the Draft, so there’s more of “The Process” to be processed. I am many hours into the analytics and film-grinding on the sub 4.4 WRs and will share my thoughts on each here soon. In the meantime, please follow me on Twitter @Dynasty_JoeFF to watch us Dynasty geeks debate the fate of these young men.
