I’ve been thinking about the signal the NFL Combine produces for several weeks. I have started, and not finished, many iterations of this article because I kept finding compelling exceptions to my hypothetical advice.
Let’s get philosophical for a moment. What is The NFL Combine? For one, it’s a bizarre spectacle where grown men are measured in their underwear, albeit for the chance to make life-changing money. That’s not why it’s held, though.
The Combine is a Threshold Test
Specific athletic tests matter more for certain position groups and body types, but at large, NFL teams want to ensure the college film hasn’t duped them. They want to ensure the players on their board meet physical and athletic thresholds so they don’t get the pick wrong.
Don’t. Get. The. Pick. Wrong!
The longer I play fantasy football and, more particularly, Dynasty, the more apparent it becomes that who you DON’T take is as important, if not more important, than who you DO take.
If we don’t get the pick wrong, the player will hold value for longer.
We’re playing a game of probabilities based on a game of inches with high variance.
So, while imaginations run wild this week about what is possible, we will focus on what’s not probable. More specifically, which players are not likely to hold long-term dynasty value.
This may not excite you as much as a hype piece, but it will save you time and precious draft capital. Let’s remove some prospects from our set of considerations, shall we?
Running Backs
I’m starting here because I believe we learn the most about running backs at the NFL Combine.
Kyren Williams infamously ran a 4.65-second 40-yard dash at 195 pounds (that’s very bad). Yet, Kyren Williams sits comfortably in the top 10 of almost every Dynasty running back list the internet offers.
He is among the most divisive fantasy assets I have ever seen, directly resulting from his NFL Combine.
I have precisely zero shares, and here’s why:
Speed Score – Speed Score considers a player’s speed relative to weight. The calculation is (weight x 200) / (40-time^4). This is akin to Mass x Speed = Force. (Think about tackling Derrick Henry, who had a 98th percentile speed score of 116.3)
It’s difficult to overstate the significance of this metric for running backs. Take a look at the speed scores of the top 12 RBs in Dynasty (not ranked in any particular order here):
Breece Hall – 116.9
Jamyr Gibbs – 110
Bijan Robinson- 108
Jonathan Taylor – 121.7
Saquon Barkley – 124.3!
Christian McCaffrey – 100.3
Ken Walker – 114.7
Isaiah Pacheco – 118.5
James Cook – 104.3
Devon Achane – 108
Rachaad White – 106.3
Kyren Williams – 83
One of these things is not like the others.
Any speed score under 90 is a red flag, and above 100 is (firmly!) preferred unless the player has serious passing game chops (Alvin Kamara – 99 comes to mind).
I can keep going with this list, but I promise the only other guy you’ll find in the top 60 with a speed score under 90 is Devin Singletary (a fine player in his own right, but have you tried trading away Devin Singletary lately?).
Kyren Williams is so divisive because he’s found a way to produce despite his terrible Speed Score. He strikes me as the exception that proves the rule, though. The only way to overcome a Speed Score under 90 is with incredible volume (see also Josh Jacobs – 90).
This brings us to our next point. The kingmaker at the running back position is volume. You need to be efficient (aka good) to keep getting volume, but how can the Combine help us predict it?
Volume is quite binary, and it’s correlated to size. Being 200 pounds or more is that magic predictor. Right or wrong (and with each passing year, it seems more wrong), the old guard in the NFL will stigmatize running backs under 200 pounds as role players and passing-down specialists. It is rare to see backs this size to get “bell-cow” work because conventional wisdom says they won’t hold up.
I don’t believe the conventional wisdom is correct, and we’ll continue to see smaller backs buck that trend (assuming their speed score and BMI are good enough). However, we play a game of probabilities, so the trend is still your friend.
Consider our top 12 list above. Gibbs and Cook weighed in at 199 (and their teams have been reluctant to hand over the reins completely). We love Achane, but he’s 188, and his multiple rookie-year injuries did nothing to dispel the stigma. Even with one of the game’s most forward-thinking coaches, these questions persist. And then, there’s our favorite rule-breaker, Kyren, at 195. In other words, 66% of the top 12 weighed over 200 pounds (and Gibbs and Cook were at 199, so call it 83%).
So volume is correlated to weight, which is a factor in determining Speed Score.
Let’s simplify this into a couple of rules for running backs:
Rule #1: If a running back is over 200 pounds, their speed score must exceed 90.
Rule #2: If a running back is under 200 pounds, their speed score must exceed 100.
The implication here, my dear Kyren Williams holders, is that you should sell now or forever hold your peace because you are betting on an extreme outlier. Proceed with caution.
The only other disqualifying factor I have for spending meaningful draft capital (top 3 rounds) on running backs is their age. We know age going into the Combine, but it will be consolidated on countless spreadsheets when you look up their measurables.
According to research conducted by Player Profiler (the fantastic source for all the metrics we’re discussing today), the age apex for RBs is 24.5 years old. As a rule, I don’t draft 24-year-old running backs in Dynasty because, sadly, they will be past their prime before they see meaningful touches. My cutoff on rookie RBs is 23, and we strongly prefer early declares in Rounds 1 and 2 (and if they’re 23, they better be an asset in the passing game).
Rule #3: Do not draft in Dynasty if a running back is 24 or older.
Wide Receivers
For wide receivers, draft capital is a better indicator of fantasy success (and dynasty value) than any measurement at the Combine. It’s tied to athleticism, but as we discussed, the Combine is a threshold test of that athleticism.
At wide receiver, we’re not as concerned about the Speed Score as we are with raw 40 times. This is because running backs take handoffs and dump-offs behind the line of scrimmage with many bodies in front of them, so force matters. On the other hand, receivers typically catch the ball at the 2nd level of the defense (or deeper) with a lot more open field.
Of our top 12 in Dynasty, Puka and Amon-Ra clock in at the slowest with 4.62 and 4.65 seconds, respectively. Those gentlemen were drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds of the NFL draft. So, speed matters, but it’s reflected in draft capital, so we don’t want to double-count.
As stated, draft capital is a better indicator of opportunity (and success) than any other Combine measurement, but therein lies a cautionary tale.
Receivers get over-drafted due to speed. As a Raiders fan (see Henry Ruggs or Darrius Heyward-Bey), I’m all too familiar with this mistake. The Raiders aren’t the only ones. Do you remember NFL Combine record-holder John Ross getting drafted at 1.09? Remember Kadarius Toney? Remember Alec Pierce?
We like speed, but hyper-athletic burners may often get overdrafted in the NFL, making them look better in all the prospect models you’ll see. This is because… speed is tied to draft capital -> draft capital carries signal -> draft capital is included in those models.
Rule #4: Research the burner wide receivers!
Did they have a late breakout without significant teammate competition? Any of them transfer? Did they have a 30% dominator rating or better? If the main argument is speed and draft capital, do more research!
The Size Question
Now, much has been made of the influx of small receivers who are succeeding in the NFL. The argument I hear is that the rule changes in the NFL have made it possible for wide receivers with slighter frames to survive in today’s game.
Despite winning the Heisman in 2020, there were serious concerns about Devonta Smith’s prospects as an NFL wide receiver due to his weight of 170 pounds. The fact that he’s never been outside the top 36 in fantasy points per game (FPPG) has certainly quelled those concerns.
Last year, Tank Dell pushed the envelope further at 165. Before getting injured on a running play, he averaged 15 FPPG (good for #18 on the season).
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Tutu Atwell (155 pounds) just had his best season as a pro, either.
This is not to say that bigger-bodied WRs are going away (they win in different ways), but rather, the environment in which these smaller WRs can thrive has arrived.
So, size matters less than ever, and as mentioned above, speed matters less for wide receivers too, because they just need to be able to get open, right?
I don’t think so.
We mentioned the 40 times of Amon-Ra (4.65) and Puka (4.62) above. You can throw Cooper Kupp (4.62) in the mix as well. They can win with 4.6+ 40 times but weigh 197, 204, and 210, respectively.
What about the smaller guys? Consider the list below:
That’s every WR within or near most top 100 lists who weigh 180 pounds or less. Aside from the former Heisman Trophy winner, they all run a 40 in the 4.4s.
Is it safe to say anything better than 4.65 forty chins the bar? Nope. There’s more to it:
Rule #5: If a receiver runs a 4.6 or slower, they must be at least 195 pounds.
Rule #6: If a receiver weighs less than 180 pounds, they must run better than a 4.5 (or run a 4.54 because they’re carrying a Heisman)
Quarterbacks
Yet again, draft capital is the best indicator for success, but that’s cold comfort at the QB position. So much goes into these evaluations, and athleticism at the Combine will not answer all the questions for the most challenging position in sports. Thus, I mercifully only have one rule.
Rule #7: If a QB is under 6 feet tall, he better be fast. (See Kyler Murray – 4.49, or Russell Wilson 4.55)
This millennium, Kyler and Russ make up the complete list of sub-6 foot QBs that have finished a season as a top-12 Dynasty QB. We’ll keep a candle burning for Bryce (5’10”, 4.63), but I won’t make any of these bets soon.
Tight Ends
Tight End is a complex position. They’re pass-catchers, but their roles as blockers are critical to them getting on the field and staying on the field. They score fantasy points via mismatches on linebackers who can’t stay with them or safeties they can out-muscle. Size (height and weight) is vital for the blocking, and athleticism (Burst Score and Speed Score) is necessary for the mismatches.
Rule #8: Don’t draft Tight Ends under 6’3″.
Candles are still lit for Chigoziem Okonkwo as well, but we need to see him thrive at 6’2″ first.
Rule #9: Don’t draft Tight Ends under 230 pounds. (245 pounds, or more, is preferred.)
Evan Engram is the only player preventing the number from being 245 or more.
Rule #10: Tight Ends must have either a Burst Score of 110 or above or a Speed Score of 100 or above (with a strong preference for both).
The Tight End must create mismatches via athleticism to consistently produce.
If you want more evergreen content on the Combine and athleticism, our very own Professor wrote an article you should check out if you are unfamiliar with any of the terms I used: Rookie Analytics Breakdown (it’s also just a great time of year to brush up on all of these concepts).
Further, if you’re looking for more than profiles to fade, Jax Falcone has dropped three parts of his 2024 Anatomy Series on Twitter (Click here for Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Wide Receivers), which goes hand in hand with what we’re discussing today.
You can also follow me there, Dynasty_JoeFF, and catch me reacting to all the testing this week.
